Best Musical
Locks: In the Heights; Passing Strange
Probably in: Cry-Baby; Xanadu
Possible surprise: A Catered Affair

Are we crazy to think that Tony nominators are a lot more likely to embrace the cheese — and touring potential — of Cry-Baby rather than the dour drama of A Catered Affair, despite its pedigree? Or would we be crazier to suggest that the Tonys would ignore all three of the three kings of current Broadway musical theater: Walt Disney (The Little Mermaid), Mel Brooks (Young Frankenstein), and Harvey Fierstein?

Best Musical Revival
Locks: Gypsy; South Pacific; Sunday in the Park With George
Probably in: A ham
Possible surprise: Grease

Unlike last year, when this category featured five eligible shows — allowing relieved nominators to exclude the miserable Les Misérables — only four musical revivals bowed in the 2007–2008 season. We still think the committee will trim the category to three rather than nominate Grease — or they might nominate our choice, a large, honey-roasted ham.

Best Actor
Locks: Lin-Manuel Miranda, In the Heights; Paulo Szot, South Pacific; Stew, Passing Strange
Probably in: Boyd Gaines, Gypsy; Tom Wopat, A Catered Affair
Possible surprises: Daniel Evans, Sunday in the Park With George; Cheyenne Jackson, Xanadu

Two beloved theater vets seem likely to round out the top five, but they're challenged by two young upstarts in two very different roles: Evans in the gorgeous but not quite beloved Sunday, and Jackson in the beloved but not good exactly Xanadu. We'll give the edge to the vets — because the three locks are all Broadway virgins.

Update: Publicists and commenters are telling us that Boyd Gaines has been officially declared a Featured Actor for Gypsy, not a Lead Actor. So cross him off the list!

Best Actress
Locks: Patti LuPone, Gypsy; Kelli O'Hara, South Pacific
It doesn't really matter because either Patti or Kelli will win and maybe both if the Tonys are smart about it: Kerry Butler, Xanadu; Jenna Russell, Sunday in the Park With George; Faith Prince, A Catered Affair
Possible surprise: Mandy Gonzalez, In the Heights

This one seems pretty easy.

Related: Tony Nominations, Sturm-und-Drang Division!