Oscar Futures: The Fighter Punches Back

Every week between now and January 25 when the nominations are announced, movies and stars will help themselves — or sometimes, hurt themselves — in the Oscar race. Vulture’s Oscar Futures will listen for insider gossip, comb the blogs, and out-and-out guess when necessary to track who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted nomination.

Best Picture	UP: The Fighter. Following its surprise premiere at AFI Fest this week, pundits are calling it a crowd-pleasing contender with a trio of nominatable performances.	DOWN: The Social Network. Stu Vanairsdale wonders — with King's Speech holding strong, and 127 Hours coming up fast — has it lost momentum?
	CURRENT PREDIX: 127 Hours, Another Year, Black Swan, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone.

Best Director	UP: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech. Charmingly, he dislikes his movie's poster just as much as everybody else.	DOWN: David O. Russell, The Fighter. Good reviews for the movie and most of the cast don't seem to be helping him all that much: not one single vote from a Guru o' Gold today.
	CURRENT PREDIX: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Danny Boyle, 127 Hours; David Fincher, The Social Network; Tom Hooper, The King's Speech; Christopher Nolan, Inception.
Best Actor	UP: Colin Firth, The King's Speech. Out of Gold Derby's 22 experts, 21 are picking him to win.	DOWN: Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter. His buzz isn't much better than Russell's: "Best Actor is, to be perfectly honest, going to be difficult for Wahlberg," raves Jeff Sneider in his review.
	CURRENT PREDIX: Javier Bardem, Biutiful; Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Colin Firth, The King's Speech; James Franco, 127 Hours.
Best Actress	UP: Natalie Portman, Black Swan. More great reviews out of the AFI Fest, Sasha Stone calls hers the "Performance of the Year," and Gold Derby's pundits have her as the favorite.	DOWN: Rachel McAdams, Morning Glory. Critics love her! Too bad about her movie.
	CURRENT PREDIX: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Natalie Portman, Black Swan.
Best Supporting Actor	UP: Christian Bale, The Fighter. He steals the movie, claims pretty much everybody who saw it on Tuesday.	DOWN: Ed Harris, The Way Back. He's reportedly great — but will his movie get enough of a push?
	CURRENT PREDIX: Christian Bale, The Fighter; Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Ed Harris, The Way Back; Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech.
Best Supporting Actress	UP: Amy Adams, The Fighter. Hey, maybe she's in this after all. Says Gregory Ellwood: "In a film full of colorful characters, it's Adams' grounded and realistic Charlene that keeps the film from going dramatically off the rails."	DOWN: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech. Remember when she seemed like a front-runner? Her buzz has cooled off and the category's getting more competitive.
	CURRENT PREDIX: Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech; Melissa Leo, The Fighter; Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham; Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit; Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom.