Some things in TV are certain: NCIS and Glee will return next season; Lone Star will not. Such certainty of fate is rare in TV land, however. The norm is perpetual doubt — particularly for so-called “bubble” shows, whose borderline ratings are neither strong enough to merit early renewal nor weak enough to result in a quick exit. So what does the future hold for the Big Four networks’ crop of shows currently in limbo? Vulture has crunched the numbers and analyzed the schedule grids to judge the fates of nearly 30 broadcast series, and then, to be sure, ran them through our patented Bubble Meter to officially rate their likelihood of survival, from Jimmy Smits’s Outlaw (definite cancellation) to Sofia Vergara’s Modern Family (a renewal gimme).
Procedural note: Not on our list are series already renewed or canceled; veteran hits whose renewals are formalities (CSI) or subject to contract negotiations (Desperate Housewives, House); reality shows (which can quickly be revived and are thus rarely 100 percent dead); and animated Fox series (which are commissioned so far in advance that their cancellations are often delayed). We’ve also skipped anything on the CW — its relatively tiny viewership and complicated ownership structure make renewal forecasts tricky, though we’ll tell you right now that Gossip Girl, 90210, and The Vampire Diaries will all be back.)
We’ll update this slideshow between now and May, when the networks will make their final decisions on who lives, who dies, and who ends up on DirecTV.
Even with a strong Dancing With the Stars lead-in last fall, this decently reviewed cop drama couldn’t gain traction and has only sunk further in the ratings this winter without DWTS. Its only hope for a second season will come if Body of Proof, which replaces it next month, flops even harder.
Viewers have been apathetic toward the West Coast version of Dick Wolf’s franchise; massive cast changes have been implemented and the show is currently on indefinite hiatus. A full season renewal seems unlikely, but NBC might decide to order a few more episodes and try to relaunch the show in the summer or next fall.
You know all those Comic Con geeks who didn’t line up for Scott Pilgrim vs. the World and Kick-Ass? They also didn’t tune in to see the Commish as a superhero. This show will soon be up, up, and away … from ABC’s prime-time lineup.
There were rumors CBS would pull the plug on the lowest-rated of the CSI trilogy last spring; instead, the network dumped it on Fridays. It’s done so-so here, but the show makes many millions for CBS in syndication. It’ll all come down to economics and how many new dramas the Eye wants to try out next season.
Despite being TV’s most-watched new drama, Five-O is actually doing worse among viewers under 50 than former Monday time-slot occupant CSI: Miami. No matter: Ratings are strong enough, and the show is already in profit thanks to strong international sales. Insert your own “book ‘em” joke here.
A shift to Sundays has lowered the show’s overall ratings but has kept CBS competitive on the night. While Miami is older than CSI:NY, its survival odds are much better.
It was assumed to be dead at the start of the season — its cast is mighty expensive; ratings just so-so — but ABC’s inability to develop a single new drama hit this year could mean the Walkers may return for another batch of episodes. Deciding factor will be how hard new chief Paul Lee falls for his own development.
Does new NBC chief Bob Greenblatt want to Zuck up his reputation as a friend to the creative community by canceling one of TV’s most critically beloved comedies? We think not. That, plus consistent ratings, means the Greendale gang will be back.
Does new NBC chief Bob Greenblatt want to Zuck up his reputation as a friend to the creative community by canceling one of TV’s most critically beloved comedies? We think not. That, plus consistent ratings, means the Pawnee posse will be back.
The cheeky charms of Jim Belushi and Jerry O’Connell seemed tailor-made for CBS audiences. Alas, no: After failing to catch fire on Wednesdays, the Eye demoted the show to Fridays, where it’s predictably tanked.
Give NBC credit for trying to mount a family friendly action show. Now take all that credit away for thinking anybody would care about a superhero whose only weapon is an article of clothing. Ratings have dropped virtually every week it’s aired, and its episode order has been cut to ten.
NBC insiders were so sure this show would fail that it planned on airing just six episodes and then pulling the plug. But guess what: The show’s actually done better than any other Peacock drama this season. On the downside, ratings dipped markedly this week – the first time the show faced first-run episodes of both Hawaii Five-0 and Castle. Odds still favor renewal, if only slightly.
Strong ratings, strong internal love at CBS, and Chuck Lorre as producer guarantee renewal.
When Fox said this show was moving to Fridays, fans immediately assumed it was dead. And yet, ratings have held up well, making the network competitive on a low-key night. There’s no reason not to renew Fringe for at least a limited run next season.
No matter how many times ABC tries to relaunch this show, viewers just don’t seem to care. Still, the show is doing better than any of ABC’s freshman dramas; if Alphabet brass get nervous about premiering too many new shows next fall, they might just give the lizards one more chance. But it’s a long shot.
It’s like Fox’s V: Every few months, it pops up in a new time slot — and nobody notices. It’s a goner. Too bad for a fun, breezy hour that should’ve worked.
Fox tried to copy the House formula with this cop procedural, and early on, the show seemed to have a little bit of momentum. But numerous time-slot changes — and an unsuccessful summer run — zapped whatever promise the show once had. There’s a slim chance the show could return again as a summer show, but we won’t lie to you: It’s unlikely.
Good buzz, a small but loyal audience, and Bob Greenblatt’s desire to champion quality TV means there’s no way this show won’t be back for another season.
It aimed to be the new 24, but after a strong premiere, viewers kept bailing on this convoluted thriller. It’ll get a second shot next month, but with a new boss running things at NBC, The Event will need a massive surge to earn a renewal.
CBS has the strongest comedy lineup on TV, and $#*! has the lowest ratings of all of its half-hours. Do the math, and $#*! likely won’t be happening next season.
We appreciate NBC programming this show on Thursdays; it gives us time to catch up on e-mails and watch a little Lawrence O’Donnell in between Community and The Office. That is no reason to keep a show on the air, however, and so NBC will rightfully pull the plug on this buzz-free comedy by May.
The poster child for bubble shows, two months ago Chuck seemed a lock for renewal: It was the highest-rated hour on NBC’s otherwise disastrous Monday. In recent weeks, however, Harry’s Law has popped a bit while Chuck has dipped. That said, it would be silly for NBC to give up on one of the few anchor dramas it has left; we think it’ll be back for at least a dozen episodes.
A shift from Fridays to Wednesdays hasn’t given this Tom Selleck cop drama the hoped-for lift. But it did very well on Fridays and does very, very well in overall viewership. A cinch for renewal, unless Selleck decides to ask for a raise.
Sandwiched between the already-renewed The Middle and Modern Family, this half-hour has done okay since debuting in the fall. Its fate may depend on how well such spring comedies as Mr. Sunshine and Happy Endings do. Too close to call.
Amazing reviews, great buzz, awards, and a big overall audience: The only thing Wife doesn’t have is big ratings with adults 18 to 49. But the show’s on CBS, the one network not totally demo-obsessed. No fears, the show will be back.
The video equivalent of drinking orange juice after brushing your teeth: The happy buzz we get from 30 Rock dies within the first three minutes of watching this show. The old guard at NBC is fiercely (and oddly) protective of this show, believing it represents a chance to broaden out the Peacock’s comedy brand (because who wants to be known as the home of TV’s best half-hours when you could be known as the home of TV’s most stereotype-filled comedies?). We assume new NBC boss Bob Greenblatt will want to kill this, but you never know.
Zero buzz, but it’s a proven utility player — the According to Jim of the 21st century. It may never die!
