A new poll out today shows an even split among New Yorkers on the question of gay marriage, 46–46. Quinnipiac highlights the racial divide on the issue, with African-Americans notably less supportive of gay marriage (35 percent) than either whites or Hispanics. (Interestingly enough, 50 percent of African-Americans agree "that ending discrimination against gay men and women is as necessary today as ending discrimination against blacks was in the 1960s." Go figure.) Meanwhile, numbers wizard Nate Silver digs into the Senate vote count, concluding that while it's certainly possibly that Malcolm Smith could secure the necessary 32 votes, the chances of that happening are about one in three.

Racial Split As New Yorkers Divide On Gay Marriage, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Support Civil Unions More Than 2 -1 [Quinnipiac]

Whip Count: Gay Marriage Faces Uphill Odds in New York Senate [Five Thirty-Eight]