<div class="image left"><img alt="HillMcCain" src="http://nymag.com/daily/intel/09_hillmccain_sm.jpg"/></div>The rapidly emerging conventional wisdom after tonight's victories in New Hampshire for Hillary Clinton and John McCain runs as follows:
• Both races are still up for grabs, although the Democrats have probably narrowed to a Barack-Hillary face-off.
• We'll all be sick of hearing about The Cry very soon.
• Unless McCain runs the table through Florida, even Rudy still has a shot, because Republican momentum is so divided.
On the big question of the night — why were the polls showing Obama with a double-digit lead so wrong, and how did Hillary come back? — there are many answers. Because <a href="http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/coffeehouse/2008/jan/08/how_could_the_polls_be_so_wrong">the media underplayed the margin of error</a>, says Talking Points Memo. Because <a href="http://www.slate.com/id/2181584/">Democrats like a fighter</a>, says Slate. Because people <a href="http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Yzg1MDQwNTA3MzdiNWYwZjMwOWRlNzY3YzYyNmE4NWU=">like to look racially progressive when they talk to pollsters</a> but turn conservative in the voting booth (a.k.a. the "Bradley Effect") says the <em>National Review</em> and <a href="http://blog.beliefnet.com/jwalking/2008/01/race-polls-obama.html">many</a> <a href="http://slate.com/blogs/blogs/trailhead/archive/2008/01/08/did-n-h-voters-lie-about-supporting-obama.aspx">others</a> (Franklin Foer has <a href="http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/01/08/secret-ballot-versus-caucus-a-theory.aspx">a less depressing variation on this theme</a>, too.) Because <a href="http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/01/08/the-memory-of-2004.aspx">New Hampshire voters didn't want to copy Iowa again</a>, says the <em>New Republic</em>. Because of <a href="http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/01/how-did-she-do.html">voter backlash</a> against the media's Obama hype, says Andrew Sullivan. One thing is for sure: The year ahead is going to be pretty interesting.