As infuriating as those damn (slightly embarrassed) undecided voters have been these past few weeks, a surprising number of Americans make up their minds as late as three days before Election Day. But that doesn’t mean that polls are meaningless. So where are we now?
Well, all fourteen of the polls RealClearPolitics tracks put Barack Obama in a strong national lead, with anything from a five- to eleven-point advantage over McCain.
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, here’s where the polling averages (weighted for accuracy) fall for ten key battleground states:
Many of these numbers are well within the margin of error, and McCain has been making a big push in New Hampshire, Florida, and Pennsylvania in recent days. As much as the Obama campaign would like to hint that the enemy’s home territory of Arizona is in play, it’s not. Many of these big eastern states come in early tomorrow, so expect some big answers at the front end of the evening. What are we trying to tell you? Unfortunately, nothing. Except that if you want to be drunk at the right moments, you’re going to have to hedge your bets. Take some shots right at 7 p.m. when the first polls close, then switch to beer for the long haul if you have to. Go to some parties. Check in with us, we’ll be live-blogging! Then, if things go until after the midnight hour, we have one word: Flabongo.