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the midterm snapshot

The Midterm Snapshot: October 28

Looking deeper into the numbers today, the Times finds that President Obama's 2008 "coalition" — various demographic groups that voted for him — have abandoned the Democratic party this year. Women, independents, college grads, and Roman Catholics all went for the Democrats last year and have swung to the GOP this year. Then again, this probably shouldn't be entirely shocking. When the economy is in shambles and unemployment is high, everyone tends to be a little unhappy.

Meanwhile, in races around the country, Democratic senator Michael Bennett explains why he doesn't want Obama to campaign for him, Rand Paul is accused of "stomping on Kentucky," and Democratic congressman Heath Schuler might challenge Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House.

• In the Kentucky senate race, the Kentucky Democratic party is really trying to make the most out of StompGate, releasing a new ad which claims Rand Paul is "stomping on you" and "stomping on Kentucky." Apparently, it'll only air after 10 p.m., because it's so scary.

• In the Alaska Senate race, a judge has ruled that poll workers can hand out lists of write-in candidates after all, overturning a lower-court ruling. This is great news for Lisa Murkowski, obviously, and any voters who were going to vote for her but might forget her name on the way to the polling station.

• In the Colorado Senate race, Democratic senator Michael Bennett, in one of the nation's closest Senate races, explains why an appearance by President Obama would hurt him. "I think that the personal reaction by the independent voters that you've described, based on a lot of, you know, the political rhetoric that's gone back and forth, might not make it helpful," he told CNN. The latest poll has Republican Ken Buck leading Bennett by four.

• In the Illinois Senate race — also one of the closest in the country — Democrat Alexi Giannoulias admitted that his campaign was behind a flyer mailed out to voters that touted Libertarian candidate Mike Labno, in an effort to siphon conservative support away from his opponent, Republican Mark Kirk. When asked if this was deceptive, Giannoulias said, "No." TPM Polltracker has Kirk leading Giannoulias by an average of 2.6 points.

• In North Carolina's eleventh-district congressional race, Democratic Blue Dog incumbent Heath Schuler, demonstrated today how to really distance yourself from Nancy Pelosi: Instead of merely withdrawing your support for her as Speaker of the House, just run for Speaker yourself. "If there is no viable alternative, I will be running for speaker of the House," he said during a radio debate with his Republican opponent, Jeff Miller. A recent DCCC poll has Schuler up fifteen points. Nate Silver gives Schuler an 80 percent chance of winning.

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