The Midterm Snapshot: October 29

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Everyone knows that Republicans will rout the Democrats in congressional races around the country on Tuesday. But how badly? Political Wire has a rundown of the latest predictions from the major election prognosticators:


Larry Sabato: "We are raising the total to +55 net R seats. We consider 47 to be in the ballpark still, but more of a floor than a ceiling."

Charlie Cook: "House outlook is a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats;with higher losses possible."

Stuart Rothenberg: "House Democrats appear headed for a historic bloodbath... We estimate likely GOP House gains at 55 to 65 seats, with gains at or above 70 seats possible."

Nate Silver: "The model's best guess is that the new Congress will be composed of 203 Democrats and 232 Republicans: a net gain of 53 seats for the G.O.P. In addition, Democratic odds of retaining the House dropped to 17% from 20%."

Meanwhile, in races around the country, Alaska's governor can't say if the Earth is older than 6,000 years, a tea party House candidate warns of Mexicans crossing the border to vote, and Christine O'Donnell actually gains ground in the polls.

• In the Alaska Senate race, as Joe Miller plunges in two recent polls, Lisa Murkowski wonders if he'd turn Alaska into a police state in her newest ad.


• Meanwhile in the Alaska gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican governor Sean Parnell was asked at a debate last night whether the Earth was closer to 6,000 years old or 6 billion years old. "Only God knows," Parnell said. Errr, wrong answer.

• In the Louisiana Senate race, Republican incumbent David Vitter refused to say at a debate last night, despite persistent attempts by the moderator, whether he broke the law when he "sinned" with a prostitute. It probably won't matter; if Louisianans cared about Vitter's prostitution scandal, he wouldn't be up by fifteen points over Democrat Charlie Melancon.

• In the Delaware Senate race, Democrat Chris Coons and Republican Christine O'Donnell are both united in their disgust with Gawker's "one-night stand" story. Coons said it was "despicable, cowardly and has absolutely no value at all to any Delaware voters." Meanwhile, O'Donnell has actually seen some major gains in the most recent poll (which was taken before the Gawker story) — she only trails by ten points.

• In the Nevada Senate race, Republican Sharron Angle gave the press a glimpse of her potential future as a senator today, when she disinvited the local CBS and NBC affiliates from her election-night party after they asked her questions at an airport about national security. Angle has broken away from her deadlock with Harry Reid in recent days, and now leads the race by about four points.

• In Arizona's 8th congressional district race, tea-party Republican Jesse Kelly took voter fraud fearmongering to a new level by claiming on the radio, "They literally bus people across from Mexico to have them vote at the polls on Election Day, give them a meal and then bus them back." The Arizona secretary of State's office says they haven't seen any evidence of this "urban legend." Kelly's race with incumbent Democrat Gabrielle Giffords is considered a toss-up.