Rasmussen Was Off on One Poll by 40 Points


By Nate Silver’s calculations, the most accurate polling firm this campaign season was Quinnipiac, while the most inaccurate firm was Rasmussen, whose polls in the final three weeks of the campaign were off by an average of 5.8 percent, and were fairly consistently biased in favor of the GOP. One poll it conducted in the Hawaii Senate race “missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.” [FiveThirtyEight/NYT]