The consensus opinion on President Obama's reelection hopes is that if the economy continues to struggle through next November — which it's expected to — he'll have a tough time convincing voters he deserves another four years, especially since he'll almost definitely face Mitt "Private Business Experience" Romney or Rick "Every New Job Is in Texas" Perry. But according to American University professor Allan Lichtman's presidential election prediction model, which is only somewhat based on the economy, Obama is going to win. “Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman says. This model, by the way, has correctly guessed the winner of every presidential election since 1984. Seven out of seven — not bad. Of course, Paul the Octopus correctly predicted the winner of eight out of eight World Cup matches, and he had no idea what the hell was going on.
Most Viewed Stories
Bernie Sanders’s ‘Scorched Earth’ Strategy Seems to Be Working
5 Secrets That Still Need to Be Revealed on Game of Thrones
The Good News Is That Donald Trump’s Campaign Is an Absolute Strategic and Managerial Garbage Fire
Johnny Depp Says He Hopes the ‘Dissolution of This Short Marriage Will Be Resolved Quickly’
Teacher Unions Still Haven’t Forgiven Michelle Rhee, Don’t Care How Well Her Policies Work
The Juiciest Theories About Johnny Depp and Amber Heard’s Divorce
The Big, Big Problem With How the Hillary Clinton Email Scandal Is Being Covered
Corey Feldman on Hollywood Child Abuse: ‘They Were Passing Us Back and Forth’
Report: Amber Heard Granted Restraining Order Against Johnny Depp After Alleged Assault
Jeopardy’s Most ‘Punchable’ Champ Is Getting Your Sexts, He’s Just Ignoring Them
Latest News from Daily IntelligencerThe Wall Street Journal Staff Told to Be ‘Fair’ to Mendacious Demagogue Because ‘Serious People’ Support Him
What is the "fair" way for a journalist to treat a politician who displays an open contempt for the truth?The Good News Is That Donald Trump’s Campaign Is an Absolute Strategic and Managerial Garbage Fire
Maniac who can't be trusted to run the presidency fortunately also can't be trusted to run a campaign.Marco Rubio Flips, Then Flops, Then Flips Again
Rubio's circuitous path continues with sudden enthusiasm for Trump and maybe a reconsideration of his retirement from the Senate.96-Year-Old Dr. Heimlich Put His Maneuver to Use on a Fellow Resident at His Retirement Home
His 87-year-old table mate at dinner choked on a piece of hamburger.Hot, Humid, and Pop-up Showers: Here’s What Your Memorial Day Weekend Weather Will Be Like
And just like that, it's time to turn on the AC.In Hiroshima, President Obama Calls for ‘Moral Revolution’ to End Threat of Nuclear War
During his historic visit, Obama met with survivors and called on mankind to get its moral progress in line with its technological prowess.Martin Shkreli Does His Part to Prevent a Trump Presidency
America's least favorite hedge-fund hipster endorses the Donald, weaponizing his unpopularity in the fight against fascism.Bernie Sanders’s ‘Scorched Earth’ Strategy Seems to Be Working
The socialist senator is driving up Clinton’s disapproval rating with his supporters – and winning concessions to the party’s left flank in the process.Teacher Unions Still Haven’t Forgiven Michelle Rhee, Don’t Care How Well Her Policies Work
Anybody want to know the education bogeywoman actually helped students?Fresh Intelligence: New Superbug Could Spell End of Humanity, But So Could Trump’s Nomination
Our roundup of the stories, ideas, and memes you’ll be talking about today.
The Republican nominee's once-promising challenger says he wants to "be helpful."Distress Signals Narrow Search for Missing EgyptAir Flight
Airbus detected a distress signal from the plane's emergency-locator transmitter.Baylor Demotes University President, Fires Coach for Mishandling Rape Claims
Athletics staff "improperly discredited" rape victims and "denied them a right to a fair investigation."Donald Trump Promises to ‘Cancel’ Paris Climate Deal
In a rare pre-written speech on energy policy, Trump argued that coal doesn't need to be regulated and that wind turbines are "killing all the eagles."No, It’s Not Just a Nightmare: Trump Officially Clinches Nomination!
After all the sound and fury, Trump clinches the nomination without fanfare with a few formerly uncommitted delegates.The Big, Big Problem With How the Hillary Clinton Email Scandal Is Being Covered
We all know it's distracting voters from the issues. But is that actually true?If a New Poll Is to Be Believed, There Are Some Interesting Dynamics Afoot in California’s Democratic Primary
A highly regarded California poll shows Sanders leading among nonwhite voters and Clinton among white voters. It's all about age.A Terrifying Drug-Resistant Superbug Has Cropped Up in the U.S.
This is really bad.The GOP’s Civil War Over LGBT Rights Just Killed a Spending Bill
Forty-three Republicans helped pass an amendment barring federal contractors from discriminating against gay people. The rest of the GOP caucus then killed the entire bill.Trump’s Lies and Trump’s Authoritarianism Are the Same Thing
The authoritarian epistemology.