Poll: Romney Now Holds Commanding Fifteen-Point Lead Over Gingrich in Florida

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COLUMBIA, SC - JANUARY 11: Republican presidental hopeful and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney greets supporters during a campaign rally at The Hall at Senate's End on January 11, 2012 in Columbia, South Carolina. A day after winning the New Hampshire primary, Mitt Romney is launching his campaign in South Carolina. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) Photo: Justin Sullivan/2012 Getty Images

With just two days before 2 million or so Florida Republicans vote in the first large-state primary, the latest NBC/Marist poll announced today shows Mitt Romney opening up a sizable fifteen-point lead over Newt Gingrich. (Nate Silver now puts Romney's probability of victory at 95 percent.) Just 4 percent of likely voters claim to be undecided, which makes a last-minute shift like the one we saw in South Carolina a virtual impossibility — not that anything's ever truly impossible in this race.