Bill de Blasio needs to reach the 40 percent threshold tonight to avoid a run-off three weeks from now with the second-place finisher, and if the exit polls are correct (they may not be!), he'll get there. De Blasio is at 43 percent according to these early exit polls, compared to 25 percent for Bill Thompson and 18 percent for Christine Quinn. De Blasio's numbers are dominant across the board. "Bill de Blasio is beating his opponents among men, women, blacks and Latinos," the Wall Street Journal's Michael Howard Saul notes. "He's even beating Christine Quinn among gay voters."