A new Washington Post/ABC poll indicates that almost two thirds of American voters don’t believe that Donald Trump is qualified to be president, and shows Clinton with a 12-point national lead, 51 to 39 percent, over the presumptive GOP nominee if there were a head-to-head matchup. The poll, which was conducted from June 20 to 23, also shows that roughly the same percentage of voters believe Trump’s comments have indicated an unfair bias against women, minorities and Muslims, and believe that his attack on the Mexican heritage of the judge overseeing a Trump University lawsuit was racist. 85 percent believe his comments were inappropriate. A majority, 56 percent, believe Trump stands against their beliefs.
The results of a separate NBC/Wall Street Journal poll which were also released on Sunday show Clinton with a mere 46 to 41 percent lead (when excluding third-party candidates), which is a two-point drop for Trump since the last NBC/WSJ poll in May. When third-party candidates are added in, Clinton has only a one point lead, so within the margin of error.
Digging into the WaPo/ABC poll, however, suggests some very bad news for Trump among Republicans: Nearly a third see him as unqualified, and 18 percent say he doesn’t represent their beliefs. Only 79 percent of those leaning Republican now back Trump, while 88 percent of Democrats or Democrat-leaning independents now support Clinton. In the NBC/WSJ poll, Clinton’s support among Democrats was at 85 percent. Both results suggest that Democrats are indeed coalescing around their eventual nominee following the end of the party’s divisive primary battle.
On the other hand, in the WaPo/ABC poll, just 69 percent of Republicans who voted for someone other than Trump say they will now support him. Eight percent of Bernie Sanders supporters indicated they will support Trump; down 12 points from last month, so it seems Trumps direct appeal to disaffected Berners may not be bearing any co-revolutionary fruit. Other interesting details from the WaPo/ABC poll: Clinton is also now tied in male support with Trump, though still lags among white men. 77 percent of non-white voters prefer Clinton, and the Post adds that Trump now has the worst advantage among white voters of any Republican candidate since Bob Dole.
The sort-of-but-not-really silver lining for Trump? As many as 18 percent of respondents who think Trump is racist or has bias against minorities will still vote for him anyway, as will 11 percent of those who believe he is unqualified to lead the country. Actual good news for Trump is that some 64 percent of those respondents who believe the country needs a new direction favor him. In addition, half of all respondents were uneasy over the prospect of a Hillary Clinton presidency.
As of Sunday, the Real Clear Politics poll average has Clinton with a 6.7 point lead over Trump. The new WaPo/ABC poll is the third this month showing her with a double-digit lead.
Obama, on the other hand, is enjoying a 56 percent approval rating, according to the WaPo/ABC poll, his highest since the strike that killed Osama Bin Laden in 2011, and higher than either President Bush enjoyed near the end of their respective presidencies.
Looking at swing states, results from a CBS/YouGov poll released on Sunday indicate that:
Hillary Clinton holds narrow leads over Donald Trump across a number of key states of Florida (up three points, 44 to 41 percent); Colorado (Clinton 40 percent, Trump 39 percent); Wisconsin (Clinton up 41 percent to 36 percent) and North Carolina, which has flipped back and forth between the parties in the last two elections, where it’s Clinton 44 percent and Trump 42 percent.