There are only fragmentary polling results available as of Monday morning, and it’s possible some immediate post-convention developments (e.g., Donald Trump’s interaction with the Khans, the Muslim parents of a fallen U.S. soldier, who appeared in Philadelphia) could move the numbers further. But a new CBS poll shows what logic and precedent indicated we could expect: Hillary Clinton has erased Trump’s own “convention bounce” and resumed a small but significant lead.
CBS gives Clinton a six-point lead (47-41) once “leaners” are factored in, and she leads by five (43-38-10) if Libertarian Gary Johnson is included. Trump had edged ahead of Clinton (44-43) in the last CBS poll immediately after the GOP convention.
The internals of the new survey are unsurprising: Clinton’s lead is mainly the product of better performance among independents and a consolidation of support among Democrats. Her support among Sanders supporters has risen from 67 percent to 73 percent.
Evidence of a counter-bounce can also be found in a post-Philadelphia robo-poll from Public Policy Polling, which shows Clinton up 50-45 (and 46-41-6-2 with Johnson and Jill Stein in the mix). The most interesting finding from PPP involves undecideds:
[M]ost of the remaining undecided pool is very Democratic leaning. They give Barack Obama a 55/33 approval rating, and they’d rather have him as President than Trump by a 59/10 spread. If they ended up voting for Clinton and Trump by those proportions, it would push Clinton’s lead up from 5 points to 8. But they don’t like Clinton (a 4/83 favorability) or Trump (a 2/89 favorability). A lot of these folks are disaffected Bernie Sanders voters, and even after the successful convention this week they’re still not sold on Clinton yet. She and her surrogates will have to keep working to try to win those folks over and if they can the election enters landslide territory.
If Clinton does continue to pull Sanders voters into her column, or at the very least deter them from even considering Trump, her lead should continue to hold firm. But it’s not likely to become large enough to keep Clinton safe from adverse external events or unforced errors.