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Your Guide to Each World Cup Group Scenario

Doesn't this make you want to go to New Zealand?

As of the end of Spain's win over Honduras, every team in World Cup has played two games. They each have one left in the group stage, and they'll be packing them in: Starting tomorrow, there are four games each day through the rest of the week, at 10 a.m. and 2:30 p.m. By late afternoon Friday, we will know the knockout round pairings (and you will know how you're doing in our predictor pool, at last). So, how does each group look heading into the final match? Come, we'll show you.

Note: We researched this entire thing ourselves and very well might have gotten something wrong. We don't think so, but if we did, please e-mail us at will.leitch@nymag.com and let us know. And for the sake of sanity, we're ignoring scenarios in which they draw lots, which is the last resort for breaking World Cup ties, and we're not deciding the order in which each team comes out of the group (first or second). It's all about advancing at this point.

GROUP A

Standings
Uruguay, 1–0–1, 4 points, +3 goal differential
Mexico, 1–0–1, 4 points, +2 goal differential
France, 0–1–1, 1 point, -2 goal differential
South Africa, 0–1–1, 1 point, -3 goal differential

Who's In: No one yet.
Who's Out: No one yet.

Final Matchups:
Mexico vs. Uruguay, Tuesday, 10 a.m., ESPN
France vs. South Africa, Tuesday, 10 a.m. ESPN2

Scenarios
Mexico: If they beat or draw Uruguay, they're in. If they lose, they need the winner of the France–South Africa game not to make up the four- (France) or five-goal (South Africa) difference.

Uruguay: If they beat or draw Mexico, they're in. If they lose, they need the winner of the France–South Africa game not to make up the five- (France) or six-goal (South Africa) difference.

France: They need to beat South Africa and hope the Uruguay-Mexico match doesn't end in a draw. If it doesn't, then they need to make up the four- (Mexico) or five-goal (Uruguay) difference. If they lose or draw, they're out. They also need to avoid having every player on the team kill each other.

South Africa: They need to beat France and hope the Uruguay-Mexico match doesn't end in a draw. If it doesn't, they need to make up the five- (Mexico) or six-goal (Uruguay) difference. If they lose or draw, they're out.

Pre-tournament prediction to advance: Mexico, Uruguay.
Amended prediction: Mexico, Uruguay.

GROUP B

Standings
Argentina, 2–0–0, 6 points, +4 goal differential
South Korea, 1–1–0, 3 points, -1 goal differential
Greece, 1–1–0, 3 points, -1 goal differential
Nigeria, 0–2–0, 0 points, -2 goal differential

Who's In: No one yet.
Who's Out: No one yet.

Final Matchups:
Argentina vs. Greece, Tuesday, 2:30 p.m., ESPN
South Korea vs. Nigeria, Tuesday, 2:30 p.m. ESPN2

Scenarios
Argentina: If they beat or draw Greece, or if Nigeria beats or draws South Korea, they're in. If they lose to Greece, they need to lose by fewer than five goals AND they need South Korea not to beat Nigeria by more than two goals. That's to say: Argentina's fine.

South Korea: If they beat Nigeria and Argentina beats or draws Greece, they're in. If they beat Nigeria and Greece beats Argentina, they need to win by more goals than Greece wins over Argentina OR they need Greece to beat Argentina by more than four goals. If they draw Nigeria, they need Greece to lose to Argentina or to draw with them while not scoring one more goal than South Korea does in their draw. If they lose to Nigeria, they're out.

Greece: If they beat Argentina and Nigeria beats or draws South Korea, they're in. If they beat Argentina and South Korea beats Nigeria, they need to win by more goals than South Korea wins over Nigeria OR they need to beat Argentina by more than four goals. If they draw with Argentina, they need Nigeria to beat South Korea OR they need South Korea to draw with Nigeria and not score more goals in a draw than Greece does in its draw. If they lose to Argentina, they're out.

Nigeria: They need to beat South Korea and needs Argentina to beat Greece . If they lose, they're out. It's actually that easy.

Pre-tournament prediction to advance: Argentina, Nigeria.
Amended prediction: Argentina, Nigeria.

GROUP C

Standings
Slovenia, 1-0-1, 4 points, +1 goal differential
England, 0-0-2, 2 points, 0 goal differential
United States, 0-0-2, 2 points, 0 goal differential
Algeria, 0-1-1, 1 point, -1 goal differential

Who's In: No one yet.
Who's Out: No one yet.

Final Matchups:
United States vs. Algeria, Wednesday, 10 a.m., ESPN
England vs. Slovenia, Wednesday, 10 a.m. ESPN2

Scenarios
Slovenia: If they beat or draw England, they're in. If they lose to England, they need Algeria to beat the United States by no more than one goal.

England: If they beat Slovenia, they're in. If they draw with Slovenia, they need the United States and Algeria to draw with the United States scoring three fewer goals in their draw than England does in theirs. If they lose to Slovenia, they're out.

United States: If they beat Algeria, they're in. If they draw with Algeria, they need England and Slovenia to draw with England not scoring three goals or more than the U.S. scores in their draw, OR they need England to lose. If they lose to Algeria, they're out.

Algeria: If they beat the United States and Slovenia beats or draws England, they're in. If they lose, they're out.

Pre-tournament prediction to advance: England, United States.
Amended prediction: England, United States.

GROUP D

Standings
Ghana, 1-0-1, 4 points, +1 goal differential
Germany, 1-1-0, 3 points, +3 goal differential
Serbia, 1-1-0, 3 points, 0 goal differential
Australia, 0-1-1, 1 point, -4 goal differential

Who's In: No one yet.
Who's Out: No one yet.

Final Matchups:
Germany vs. Ghana, Wednesday, 2:30 p.m., ESPN
Serbia vs. Australia, Wednesday, 2:30 p.m. ESPN2

Scenarios
Ghana: If they beat or draw Germany, they're in. If they lose to Germany, they need: a) Australia to beat Serbia by no more than four goals while not losing by more than one goal; OR b) Serbia to draw with Australia while not scoring more goals in their draw than Ghana does in their loss. If they lose to Germany and Serbia wins, they're out.

Germany: If they beat Ghana, they're in. If they draw with Ghana, they need a) Serbia to lose to Australia by no more than eight goals; OR b) Serbia to draw with Australia. If they lose to Ghana, they're out.

Serbia: If they beat Australia, they're in. If they draw with Australia, they need: a) Ghana to beat Germany; OR b) Germany to draw with Ghana while Serbia scores four goals more in their draw than Germany does in theirs; OR c) Germany to beat Ghana while Serbia scores two more goals in their draw than Ghana does in their loss. If they lose to Australia, they're out.

Australia: If they beat Serbia and Germany loses to Ghana, they're in. If they beat Serbia and Germany draws with Ghana, they need to beat Serbia by more than seven goals. If they lose to or draw with Serbia, they're out.

Pre-tournament prediction to advance: Germany, Serbia.
Amended prediction: Germany, Serbia.

GROUP E

Standings
Netherlands, 2-0-0, 6 points, +3 goal differential
Japan, 1-1-0, 3 points, 0 goal differential
Denmark, 1-1-0, 3 points, -1 goal differential
Cameroon, 0-2-0, 0 point, -2 goal differential

Who's In: The Netherlands.
Who's Out: Cameroon.

Final Matchups:
Japan vs. Denmark, Thursday, 2:30 p.m., ESPN
Netherlands vs. Cameroon, Thursday, 2:30 p.m. ESPN2

Scenarios
Japan: If they beat or draw Denmark, they're in. If they lose to Denmark, they're out.

Denmark: If they beat Japan, they're in. If they lose to or draw with Japan, they're out. That was delightfully easy.

Pre-tournament prediction to advance: Netherlands, Cameroon.
Amended prediction: Netherlands, Japan.

GROUP F

Standings
Paraguay, 1-0-1, 4 points, +2 goal differential
Italy, 0-0-2, 2 points, 0 goal differential
New Zealand, 0-0-2, 2 points, 0 goal differential
Slovakia, 0-1-1, 1 point, -2 goal differential

Who's In: No one.
Who's Out: No one.

Final Matchups:
Italy vs. Slovakia, Thursday, 10 a.m. ESPN
Paraguay vs. New Zealand, Thursday, 10 a.m., ESPN2

Scenarios
Paraguay: If they beat or draw with New Zealand, they're in. If they lose to New Zealand, they need Slovakia to beat Italy by less than three goals OR to lose to New Zealand by less than three goals. (Essentially, for Slovakia to make up a four-goal differential.) If they lose to New Zealand and Italy beats Slovakia, they're out.

Italy: If they beat Slovakia, they're in. If they draw with Slovakia, they need: a) Paraguay to beat New Zealand; OR b) Paraguay to draw with New Zealand and to score more goals in their draw with Slovakia than New Zealand does in their draw with Paraguay. If they lose to Slovakia, they're out.

New Zealand: If they beat Paraguay, they're in. If they draw with Paraguay, they need: a) Slovakia to draw with Italy; AND b) to score more goals in their draw with Paraguay than Italy does in their draw with Slovakia. If they lose to Paraguay, they're out.

Slovakia: If they beat Italy and Paraguay beats or draws with New Zealand, they're in. If they lose or draw with Italy, they're out.

Pre-tournament prediction to advance: Italy, Paraguay.
Amended prediction: Italy, Paraguay.

GROUP G

Standings
Brazil, 2-0-0, 6 points, +3 goal differential
Portugal, 1-0-1, 4 points, +7 goal differential
Ivory Coast, 0-1-1, 1 point, -2 goal differential
North Korea, 0-2-0, 0 points, -8 goal differential

Who's In: Brazil.
Who's Out: North Korea.

Final Matchups:
Brazil vs. Portugal, Friday, 10 a.m. ESPN
Ivory Coast vs. North Korea, Friday, 10 a.m., ESPN2

Scenarios
Portugal: If they beat or draw with Brazil, they're in. If they lose to Brazil, they need Ivory Coast to beat North Korea by less than eight goals OR to lose to Brazil by less than eight goals. (Essentially, for Ivory Coast to make up a massive nine-goal differential.)

Ivory Coast: If they beat North Korea by more than eight goals OR Portugal to lose to Brazil by more than eight goals (essentially, to make up a massive nine-goal differential), they're in. So, they're out.

Pre-tournament prediction to advance: Brazil, Portugal.
Amended prediction: Brazil, Portugal.

GROUP H

Standings
Chile, 2-0-0, 6 points, +2 goal differential
Spain, 1-1-0, 3 points, +1 goal differential
Switzerland, 1-1-0, 3 points, 0 goal differential
Honduras, 0-2-0, 0 points, -3 goal differential

Who's In: No one.
Who's Out: Honduras.

Final Matchups:
Spain vs. Chile, Friday, 2:30 p.m. ESPN
Switzerland vs. Honduras, Friday, 2:30 p.m., ESPN2

Scenarios
Chile: If they beat or draw Spain, they're in. If they lose to Spain and Honduras beats Switzerland, they're in. If they lose to Spain and Switzerland doesn't beat Honduras by a greater goal differential than their loss to Spain, they're in.

Spain: If they beat Chile, they're in. If they draw with Chile and Switzerland loses or draws with Honduras, they're in. If they draw with Chile and Switzerland beats Honduras, they're out.

Switzerland: If they beat Honduras and Spain draws or loses to Chile, they're in. If they beat Honduras and Spain beats Chile by more than one fewer goal than they beat Honduras, they're in. If they draw with Honduras and Chile beats Spain, they're in. If they lose to Honduras, they need to lose by two or more fewer goals than Spain loses to Chile.

Pre-tournament prediction to advance: Spain, Switzerland.
Amended prediction: Spain, Chile.

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Photo: David Cannon/Getty Images