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Time to Freak Out Everybody: PECOTA Has the Yanks Out of the Playoffs

Blame the popcorn.

Baseball Prospectus has released its PECOTA team projections for the upcoming season (BML looked at the individual projections last week, and you will be pleased to note that ... actually, you'll be pleased to see none of it. PECOTA sees the Yankees as finishing third in the AL East, with an "average" of 83 wins. That's an average, of course, so it's conservative: PECOTA projections only have one team with more than 90 wins (the Red Sox). It gives the Yankees a 27.15 percent chance of making the playoffs, which, sabermetric skeptics will note, is lower than the Athletics' chances. RATHER BIG NOTE: The rating system, invented by Nate Silver, also didn't have the Yanks in the playoffs last year. Oh, and in case you were wondering, the Mets have an average of 78.5 wins and a 15.95 percent chance of making the playoffs. (One suspects Mets fans will take that.) We do not know if either projection takes CC Sabathia's weight loss into account.

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