Donald Trump is now the odds-on favorite to be the GOP’s 2016 standard-bearer, according to two top betting markets.
The London-based Betfair gave Trump a 34 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination as of Wednesday morning, three percentage points ahead of Establishment-favorite Marco Rubio, with Ted Cruz laying claim to a distant third place at 22 percent. This is the first time Trump has ever enjoyed front-runner status on Betfair. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s PredictIt has Trump trading at 40 cents a share, Rubio at 29 cents, and Cruz at 23. Trump first gained the top spot on PredictIt last week, and has held on to it ever since.
PredictWise, a betting-markets aggregator that has long favored Rubio, now has Trump and the Florida senator at even odds, each with a 32 percent chance of winning the nod.
As Trump’s odds of winning the primary have grown more favorable, his party’s odds of winning the White House have declined. PredictWise now gives Democrats a 63 percent chance of retaining the White House in 2016.
In the latest CBS/New York Times national poll, Trump leads the GOP field by 17 points.