Donald Trump has seen a lot of dismal polls in recent weeks. But few (if any) have been as bleak as Monmouth University’s latest survey of Florida.
If that result is within five points of accurate, the GOP nominee can start scouting locations for the Trump News Network. What makes this poll so devastating for Trump’s chances? Let us count the ways.
1. It shows Clinton with nearly a double-digit lead — and total support near 50 percent — in a four-way race. Typically, Clinton performs even stronger when head-to-head with her opponent. Trump is so broadly unpopular, he likely needs third-party candidates to peel off a significant number of Clinton-leaners to win. This poll suggests that isn’t happening.
2. Florida is one of the most heavily populated swing states. Roughly 8.5 million Floridians voted in 2012. Overcoming a nine-point deficit in the state would require converting hundreds of thousands of Clinton voters in just three months.
3. If Trump loses Florida, he could win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa — and all of the red-leaning states — and still lose. And he’s down by double digits in Pennsylvania and Colorado. (He also trails by so huge margin in Virginia that it no longer seems appropriate to call it a swing state.)
All of this raises the question: Is the Monmouth poll accurate? One aspect of the survey that may strain credulity is the astounding size of its gender gap: Among white male Floridians, Trump leads 64 percent to 24 percent; among white women, Clinton leads 49 percent to 39 percent. That is a lot of divided households. (Clinton dominates among nonwhite voters of both genders, for some strange reason.)
On the other hand, if any Republican is capable of generating a gender gap of that size, it’s Donald “you have to treat them like shit” Trump.
More to the point, the RealClearPolitics average of the Sunshine State’s polls now has Clinton up by 4.5 percent. In a state of Florida’s size, that’s “yuge.” All signs suggest that, come November, liberals will owe the good people of Florida an apology for having doubted their good judgment.
