With 972 days until Americans get another chance to cast a presidential ballot, Donald Trump is eight points behind a generic Democrat, trailing 44 percent to 36 percent, according to a new Politico/Morning Consult poll. That leaves nearly a fifth of the electorate, or 19 percent, undecided.
Partisans support Trump at expected levels, with 79 percent of Republicans prepared to vote for four more years and 82 percent of Democrats preferring any candidate from their party over Trump.
The more interesting figures are those from independents, who give the generic Democrat a 35 percent to 29 percent lead over Trump, with a full 35 percent undecided. That figure portends some contentious debates about electibilty during the Democratic nomination process.
The poll’s demographic findings show drops in Trump’s support among both men and women. While women went for Hillary Clinton by ten points in 2016, this poll has Trump down by 15 points. And two years after scoring a 12-point win with men, Trump is now even with a generic Democrat among male voters.
If Republicans look at these numbers and think it’s time to consider an alternative in 2020, they might be dissuaded by another one of the poll’s findings. Though 80 percent of Trump voters would vote for him in 2020 instead of a generic Democrat, that number drops all the way to 54 percent when Trump is replaced by a generic Republican. Sorry, John Kasich.