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2018 Midterms

  1. 2022 midterms
    Democrats Need More Than Redistricting Wins in 2022There’s been great news for Democrats on the redistricting front. But actually holding the House in the midterms will still be very tough.
    By Ed Kilgore
  2. 2022 midterms
    Democrats Need Republican Mistakes to Hang On to the SenateA normal midterm swing could help Republicans sweep close Senate races. But Trump and intraparty problems could help Democrats keep control.
    By Ed Kilgore
  3. 2022 midterms
    Biden’s Approval Rating Is Low But Still Higher Than Trump’sWith better skill than he’s shown lately and a bit of luck, Biden can mitigate 2022 midterm losses and bounce back in 2024.
    By Ed Kilgore
  4. 2022 midterms
    California May Help Democrats Curb 2022 LossesThe results of the Golden State’s redistricting process could endanger GOP incumbents, offsetting Democrats’ expected U.S. House losses.
    By Ed Kilgore
  5. 2022 midterms
    Trump Frets About Ads Attacking J.D. Vance for Attacking HimThe former president’s involvement in 2022 midterm campaigns isn’t about his party — it’s strictly about him.
    By Ed Kilgore
  6. 2022 midterms
    Stacey Abrams Announces 2022 Run for Governor of GeorgiaAbrams will have a united Democratic Party facing Trump-divided Republicans, and perhaps a grudge rematch with voter suppressor Brian Kemp.
    By Ed Kilgore
  7. 2022 midterms
    Beto O’Rourke Is Running for Governor in TexasThe former Democratic phenom must overcome past questions to challenge a strong but vulnerable Republican incumbent in a red state turning purple.
    By Ed Kilgore
  8. politics
    California Recall Candidate Served Legal Papers During DebateRepublican gubernatorial replacement candidate John Cox is known for attention-grabbing gimmicks, like a rented grizzly, but this one wasn’t his idea.
    By Ed Kilgore
  9. 2022 midterms
    Why 2022 Won’t Be Another 1994 Republican Tidal WaveLindsey Graham’s prediction of an impending red wave ignores several key factors behind the GOP’s historic gains in Bill Clinton’s first midterm.
    By Ed Kilgore
  10. politics
    George P. Is Trump’s Favorite Bush, but Not His Favorite Texas AG CandidateGeorge P. brags that he’s the only Bush the 45th president enjoys. Trump still backed his rival, MAGA loyalist Ken Paxton, in the Texas AG race.
    By Ed Kilgore
  11. vision 2020
    New Data Shows How Biden Won, Where Trump Gained in 2020A Pew analysis shows that Biden’s suburban boom was real, the gender gap shrank, and Trump’s boost among Latinos was larger than previously known.
    By Ed Kilgore
  12. 2022 midterms
    Will Young and Minority Voters Save Democrats in 2022?With or without some help from Donald Trump, Democrats need to keep the voters who surged to the polls in 2018 and 2020 engaged.
    By Ed Kilgore
  13. polls
    Polling the Midterms Is Going to Be Risky BusinessIt’s hard to tell whether 2020 polling errors were about Trump, the pandemic, or something more basic and replicable.
    By Ed Kilgore
  14. 2022 midterms
    After the Voting Wars, Who’s Likely to Turn Out in 2022?The net impact of laws to suppress or expand voting rights is unclear, and will compete with many factors affecting the level and shape of turnout.
    By Ed Kilgore
  15. gavin newsom recall
    Struggling California Republicans Gamble on Newsom RecallThese are grim times for the GOP in the Golden State. So they are calculating that a long-shot recall drive may be their best best for a win.
    By Ed Kilgore
  16. 2022 midterms
    Democrats Have a Good Chance of Holding the Senate in 2022With the Judiciary on the line, the Senate landscape favors Democrats in the next midterms.
    By Ed Kilgore
  17. joe biden
    What Joe Biden and George W. Bush Have in CommonComparing the early performances of our most-recent presidents.
    By Ed Kilgore
  18. 2020 elections
    Republicans Claw Back 4 California Congressional SeatsIt wasn’t a good election for California Republicans otherwise, but they did regain ground in the U.S. House.
    By Ed Kilgore
  19. 2020 elections
    Republicans Make Shocking Gains in the HouseDemocrats were expected to win several seats, but will instead lose a handful. Nancy Pelosi now faces a potential revolt.
    By Ed Kilgore
  20. vision 2020
    The Perpetually Frustrated Dream of the South Turning BlueThere remain signs of optimism for long-suffering southern Democrats, but 2020 was in most respects bitterly disappointing.
    By Ed Kilgore
  21. vision 2020
    GOP Hopes That Amy Coney Barrett Would Fire Up the Base FizzledIt’s unclear that killing Garland’s confirmation or forcing Kavanaugh’s did electoral magic for the GOP. The non-fight over Barrett sure won’t.
    By Ed Kilgore
  22. poll position
    Two Republicans Could Blow Up Democrats’ Shot at the SenateHow the GOP may just pull off flipping seats in states as different as Alabama and Michigan.
    By Ed Kilgore
  23. supreme court
    Why the Barrett Hearings Are Generating Less Outrage Than Kavanaugh’sUnlike Trump’s last Supreme Court pick, Barrett is not embroiled in scandal — but that’s not the only reason the temperature is lower this time.
    By Ed Kilgore
  24. vision 2020
    Joe Biden Needs to Win Big to Avoid a Contested ElectionIf Donald Trump is ahead on Election Night even with a majority of the vote uncounted, look out!
    By Ed Kilgore
  25. 2020 elections
    Ranks of Republican Women in Senate Could Be Decimated in NovemberAs many as four of the GOP’s nine women in the Senate could lose, and a fifth is a prospect for a party switch.
    By Ed Kilgore
  26. john lewis
    John Lewis’s Lifelong Struggle for Voting Rights Isn’t OverOnce it looked like Obama’s election represented the culmination of John Lewis’s career. A new documentary shows battles for old causes persist.
    By Ed Kilgore
  27. supreme court
    Trump Wants Another Supreme Court Nomination Fight Before NovemberTrump thinks a confirmation battle could excite his base, but it would work both ways, particularly among Democrats who remember Merrick Garland.
    By Ed Kilgore
  28. 2020 elections
    On a Big Primary Night, It’s Time to — WaitGet used to it, media. With voting by mail rising, knowing the results of an election an hour after the polls close is over.
    By Ed Kilgore
  29. 2020 elections
    If Stacey Abrams Doesn’t Become Veep, a 2022 Rematch With Kemp Looks PromisingIf all else fails, the rising Democratic star from Georgia could hold Georgia’s governor accountable for his perilous COVID-19 policies.
    By Ed Kilgore
  30. 2020 elections
    Six Months From the Election, Pelosi’s Gavel Seems SecureWith limited presidential momentum, a deficit in open seats, and a gap in the generic ballot, Republicans won’t take the House until at least 2022.
    By Ed Kilgore
  31. vision 2020
    Why Kavanaugh Is the Focus of Republican Attacks on BidenThe GOP would prefer to compare Biden to Kavanaugh, a party-unifying figure, rather than Trump himself, accused of far more misconduct.
    By Ed Kilgore
  32. coronavirus
    80 Percent of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Georgia Are African-AmericanAmid CDC evidence that black Georgians are disproportionately affected by COVID-19, Kemp’s business reopenings could make things much worse.
    By Ed Kilgore
  33. vision 2020
    There’s Nothing Wrong With Stacey Abrams’s Campaign to Be Vice-PresidentTeam Biden started the conversation about Abrams as a possible veep. If she’s ready for that tough gig, she should continue to make her case.
    By Ed Kilgore
  34. vision 2020
    As Coronavirus Rages, Republicans Still Don’t Have a Health-Care PlanIn a pandemic, Republican fecklessness on health care is likely to be a bigger advantage for Democrats than it was in the 2018 midterms.
    By Ed Kilgore
  35. vision 2020
    The Wisconsin Results Should Worry Republicans EverywhereDemocrats’ judicial landslide, despite Republican voter suppression, is another sign all the anticipatory gloating of Trump supporters was premature.
    By Ed Kilgore
  36. vision 2020
    Odds of a Contested November Election Are on the RiseIf COVID-19 continues to overshadow the general election, it could be held under circumstances where one party or the other won’t accept the results.
    By Ed Kilgore
  37. vision 2020
    Will Pete and Amy’s Abandoned Voters Move to Biden?It depends on if you believe the “tracks” theory or the “lanes” theory of voter behavior.
    By Ed Kilgore
  38. election reform
    Sometimes Slow Election Results Are Good for DemocracyWe have no birthright to instant election results, particularly when a slow count reflects greater access to the ballot.
    By Ed Kilgore
  39. immigration
    New Migrant Caravan Too Far From U.S. Election to Be an EmergencyIt’s like the caravan of Fall 2018, but without the same immediate electoral stakes for Republicans.
    By Zak Cheney-Rice
  40. politics
    Scott Brown and a Perilous Decade For ProgressivismIn January 2010 all the excitement associated with Obama’s election began to dissipate after a special election in Massachusetts.
    By Ed Kilgore
  41. vision 2020
    ‘Checks and Balances’ Voters Could Reelect TrumpVoters who oscillate between the two parties may produce the very abuses of power they claim to fear.
    By Ed Kilgore
  42. 2020 elections
    Hunter Becomes the HuntedThe embattled California Republican now faces Darrell Issa’s giant bankroll, in addition to federal prosecutors who indicted him for corruption.
    By Ed Kilgore
  43. vision 2020
    Trump Relies on Maduro-Bashing to Win Florida Next YearTrump’s attacks on Maduro are key to winning Florida’s Latino immigrants and boosting his advantage among Cuban-Americans despite his other policies.
    By Ed Kilgore
  44. conspiracy theories
    McCarthy Still Repeating Bogus Conspiracy Theories About Midterm-Election TheftHouse GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy is still whitewashing his party’s terrible performance in his home state with lurid tales unsupported by evidence.
    By Ed Kilgore
  45. 2020 elections
    Darrell Issa Plots Comeback by Taking Out Duncan HunterIssa’s wealth and fame makes him a formidable intraparty opponent for Hunter, who goes on trial in January on lurid corruption charges.
    By Ed Kilgore
  46. vision 2020
    Primary Voters Are Focused on Beating Trump, So the Candidates Are, TooYes, Democratic presidential candidates are talking a lot about Trump. But that’s mostly because they are auditioning to take him down.
    By Ed Kilgore
  47. stacey abrams
    Abrams Not Running for President but Will Fight Voter Suppression NationallyShe is keeping her veep options open and may still run for governor of Georgia in 2022.
    By Ed Kilgore
  48. orange county
    Republicans Are Now Outnumbered in Conservative Bastion of Orange CountyRonald Reagan once called Orange County, California, “where all good Republicans go to die.” Now demographics and Trump are turning it blue.
    By Ed Kilgore
  49. vision 2020
    Democrats Made Big Gains With ‘Anti-Immigration’ Voters in 2018: StudyA new analysis of the midterm electorate sheds light on what happened last fall – and what to expect in 2020.
    By Eric Levitz
  50. vision 2020
    Maybe Economic Prosperity Isn’t Trump’s Best Friend After AllFresh evidence from 2018 suggests people experiencing a stronger economy may lean Democratic, which could be why Trump is doubling down on racism.
    By Ed Kilgore
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