As reckless and capricious as O’Neal may have been, he was outdone by the Clown Prince of Citigroup, Chuck Prince, the man whom Eliot Spitzer pushed into the job when the former attorney general came close to closing the place for multiple violations of securities law. From the day he took over, Prince, a lawyer by trade who intended to restore legal order to satisfy Spitzer, was in over his head, just hopelessly inept when it came down to understanding what an investment bank does, or at least what it should do. After the bank passed muster with the regulators, he should have moved on. But no, he decided he could run a complex bank, so he set out on a series of acquisitions and buybacks that were too expensive and reckless for even his deposit base, the world’s largest, to handle. Prince accumulated underperforming hedge funds, and a second-rate brokerage in the only securities market worse than ours, Japan’s, and he backed the riskiest strategy for the era: guaranteeing billions and billions of loans, once again backed up by residential mortgages. In other words, like O’Neal he couldn’t imagine the downside to these products that had been structured by a team he seemed to be unable to comprehend or control. The man simply wasn’t smart enough to be a banker in a world where banking no longer means tellers and ATMs. Citigroup, like Merrill, got stuck with about $40 billion in mortgage guarantees and a huge inventory of crummy mortgages. If you set out to destroy a premier banking franchise, you couldn’t do half as good a job as Prince did. For a year I thought that if the bank fired Prince the stock would go higher. But the destruction he wrought gained speed, and his departure came too late to restore Citi’s luster. How bad was Prince? When Goldman’s stock dropped eleven points on the day Prince’s resignation was announced, Wall Streeters, only half-joking, attributed the decline to the loss of Goldman’s most valuable asset: a Chuck Prince–led Citigroup. The firm had simply ceased to be competitive in investment banking or trading under Prince.
Right now, both banks are scrambling to find replacements for the top. Bob Rubin has stepped up to run Citigroup for now, along with Sir Win Bischoff, an obscure British banker. There was a time when just floating the possibility that Rubin might run the bank sent the stock screaming upward. But the Street has soured on the former Treasury secretary and Goldman Sachs boss because for some unknown reason he protected and endorsed Prince throughout Prince’s reckless spending spree. He’s just another negative now. Sir Win Bischoff? At this point, we’d take any knight over Prince, including Paul McCartney or Sean Connery.
A bunch of names have been floated to run Merrill. I think Bobby McCann, an equities trader who’s the opposite of Stan O’Neal, well liked and capable of repairing the culture quickly, deserves the inside track, but Merrill’s problems are so vast and complex that it may have to bring in someone with expertise solely in mortgages and fixed income to save the joint.
While these two firms try to figure out how to right themselves, the clock is ticking. The mortgage paper these banks are stuck with sours by the day, and without rapid Federal Reserve cuts, we could see perhaps a doubling of the losses at both firms. Such depletion of capital would force both Merrill and Citigroup to sell assets at an enormous loss just to stay liquid and pay their dividends. These banks are, in effect, hostage to the whims of the Federal Reserve chairman. If Ben Bernanke wants to punish these ne’er-do-wells, all he has to do is declare his recent round of rate-cutting over. Bernanke may have to cut just to stave off a major default. Yeah, it’s that dire. Even with rate cuts, Merrill might have to be merged with a more solvent institution. Citigroup? Too big to fail, but not too big to suspend its dividend and be forced to merge with another large bank.
Could all the billion-dollar problems have been foreseen? Given that Bear Stearns, Credit Suisse, Lehman Brothers, and UBS have all suffered massive losses for this stuff, it’s tempting to think that some of this was unavoidable. But Goldman Sachs, under Lloyd Blankfein, made a bet against the exact same paper that Prince and O’Neal embraced so heavily, and he just paid out the same amount as the losses that these two knuckleheads generated together in bonuses to his employees! When you’re paid the way Wall Street CEOs are paid, you’re supposed to get this stuff right, not wrong. You are supposed to manage the risk. You are not supposed to put the franchise in jeopardy, ever. Both O’Neal and Prince did just that. Both were unchecked by anyone at their banks. Both have done lasting damage. Both deserved to go. Justice came late, but at least it came.