Intelligencer

Oracles of Doom

They always knew the economy would collapse. What do they think will happen next?

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By Jeff VanDam
Published Dec 7, 2008

(Photo: SuperStock (fortune teller); Pete Turner/Getty Images (bomb))

FORTUNE TELLER
Gerald Celente
Trends Research Institute founder; owner of collapseof09.com

TRACK RECORD
Predicted 1987 crash, 1997 Asian currency crisis; said in 2007 that U.S. was headed for “economic 9/11” in 2008.

CURRENT PREDICTION
“Products are going to be cheaper to buy, but guess what? You’re going to need more dollars to buy them because your dollar’s going to be worth less. There is no fiscal or monetary policy that can save this. You cannot save it by printing more money.”

FORTUNE TELLER
Nouriel Roubini
NYU business professor; chairman of RGE Monitor

TRACK RECORD
Predicted this year’s crisis in 2006, pointing to a housing bust, oil shocks, and interest-rate increases.

CURRENT PREDICTION
“It’s becoming a global recession. I expect it to be the worst U.S. recession of the last 50 years. I expect a cumulative fall in output from the peak of 4 percent and the unemployment rate going all the way to 9 percent.”

FORTUNE TELLER
Peter Schiff
President of Euro Pacific Capital

TRACK RECORD
Published Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse in February 2007; star of YouTube video “Peter Schiff Was Right 2006–2007.”

CURRENT PREDICTION
“I predicted that the economy would collapse. The bigger risk I saw was the government’s attempt to solve the problem by doing exactly what they’re now doing. They’re going to create another Great Depression, but worse, because the cost of living will go through the roof.”

FORTUNE TELLER
Richard Russell
Founder of the Dow Theory Letters

TRACK RECORD
Predicted bottom of 1974 bear market; exited market before crashes in 1987 and 2000.

CURRENT PREDICTION
“As long as we can hold the Dow above 7,470, I think the situation is hopeful. That’s the halfway level from when the boom market started in 1982 and when it ended in 2007. My guess is that it will break that level. Most bear markets have wiped out more than 50 percent of a bull market.”

FORTUNE TELLER
Barry Ritholtz
CEO and equity-research director of Fusion IQ; blogger at the Big Picture

TRACK RECORD
Predicted downturn last year.

CURRENT PREDICTION
“In March, the first-quarter numbers start coming out, and that’s potentially a problem. It’s just going to be an issue of dealing with the market. If earnings continue to drop and you end up with multiple contractions, that basically takes you to a really bad, ugly place, which is an S&P at 400 or 500. I don’t think that’s likely, but it’s certainly possible.”

FORTUNE TELLER
Jeremy Grantham
Co-founder and chairman, GMO LLC

TRACK RECORD
His 1998 ten-year forecast showed severe market declines in 2007 and 2008; warned of global bubble in April 2007.

CURRENT PREDICTION
“I would think, just to guess, that the period of heroic volatility will end pretty soon and will be replaced by a rather 1974-ish environment, where you quietly get bitterly resigned to your steady diet of bad news.”

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