A far more significant portent is that for much of the past year, a longtime friend of Spitzer’s, former investment banker Paul Francis, has been crisscrossing the state, sounding out policy wonks and key constituencies on Spitzer’s behalf. Francis, officially, is Spitzer’s chief policy adviser, and he has indeed been instrumental in crafting position papers on core issues like property taxes and Medicaid and laying out a legislative timetable for the first year of the Spitzer administration. But Francis is also Spitzer’s emissary, trying to build alliances that can be called on to support the new governor’s legislative initiatives.

And when Spitzer starts replacing his rhetoric with budget specifics, the cheers will give way to grumbling. Spitzer’s campaign has enjoyed nearly universal support from labor unions, but high on his governing agenda is closing hospitals and reducing Medicaid-reimbursement rates—moves sure to be unpopular with SEIU/1199, the politically astute health-care-workers union. Everyone is in favor of lower property taxes—but in order to do it, Spitzer may need to slash the state payroll; extending the nickel returnable-bottle deposit to water bottles isn’t enough. Reforming the wasteful state authorities? Well, law firms and underwriters that make millions from the authorities like things the way they are, and they all employ well-connected lobbyists. Saying there needs to be a “statewide solution” to education-funding problems sounds rational and equitable, but it makes upstate legislators scream, since the current formula is stacked against city schools.

“If Spitzer takes the perceived mandate and puts that on his shoulders and walks into the swamp, he’ll drown,” says a state legislator.

No matter how much advance work his aides do, the force of Spitzer’s intellect and personality will ultimately be what determines his success. “Eliot will outwork this last administration,” says an Albany insider. “He’ll put in seventeen-hour days, if that’s what it takes to close a deal. Pataki never wanted to do that.”

Right now, Spitzer is the electoral equivalent of the 2006 Mets (even though he is, tragically, a Yankees fan). Both Spitzer and the Mets jumped out to early, prohibitive leads and have done nothing but widen the gaps. Both are loaded with talent, but both have demolished inferior opponents. The underlying anxiety is that they’ll founder when challenged by a higher level of competition. The baseball playoffs start in October. Spitzer has to wait slightly longer to prove he’s really this good.

E-mail: Chris_Smith@nymag.com.

Related:

• Archive: “The City Politic”
• Articles by Chris Smith
• Table of Contents: Sep 25, 2006 issue of New York | Subscribe!