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Why the Bombers Won’t Bomb

Despite their unprecedented austerity movement, the Yankees will win the A.L. East.

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Illustration by André Carrilho  

Everyone is assuming the New York Yankees are going to have a terrible season. This is sort of amazing, isn’t it? I’ve never seen anything like it. Sure, the Yankees have always had a degree of negativity and scandal surrounding them, even during their dominant eras; that’s part of the deal when you’re the Yankees, whether it’s Dave Winfield or David Wells or Alex Rodriguez, and honestly, when you take a step back, you have to admit all that’s sort of fun anyway. But living in a world where Yankees fans aren’t just booing A-Rod but actually assuming that the Yankees won’t make the playoffs? What is this, Kansas City? Pittsburgh? Boston?

This is unprecedented. The last time Yankees fans have had such a dour outlook on their team’s chances heading into a season was probably 1992, the year after the Stump Merrill bottoming out, a year in which the Yankees’ best player was probably Melido Perez, a starting pitcher who went 13-16. That year brought the start of Donnie Baseball’s decline and the realization that Kevin Maas wasn’t going to be a savior; it was the third season with George Steinbrenner suspended. That was the last Yankees losing campaign, although the seeds for the future would soon sprout. Starting pitcher Mariano Rivera would throw a complete-game shutout for Class A Fort Lauderdale in May; a Kalamazoo high-school kid named Derek Jeter would be drafted in June; 24th-round selection Jorge Posada slugged .472 in the Sally League. From that point forward, Yankees fans haven’t had much to complain about.

It is perhaps no wonder, then, that Yankees fans were so frustrated with their team this off-season. When you’ve spent twenty-plus years being able to eat all the candy you want, you’re going to scream when someone finally takes a piece or two away. Most off-seasons, the Yankees just pick whichever free agents they want, most notably in the winter of 2009, when the team, as the global economy collapsed, spent $423.5 million on three players and opened up a new $1.5 billion stadium no fans had asked for. (They were, of course, rewarded with a World Series title.) But this year it was the opposite: The Yankees lost starters Nick Swisher and Russell Martin to the Cleveland Indians and Pittsburgh Pirates, of all freaking teams. The Yankees lost their starting catcher to the Pirates? And didn’t replace him? Not only are they not bringing anyone in to help out a gimpy Derek Jeter, but they’re counting on him? They know he’s 38, right? They’re not really waiting around for A-Rod, with Kevin I’ll always be a Red Sock Youkilis as a patch, are they? Are they even trying to win?

And that’s why this off-season has been so lamented by Yankees fans. It wasn’t necessarily just those guys; Swisher and Martin are useful players but hardly superstars. It’s that the Yankees, for the first time, seem like they’re not driven by that insane, insatiable hunger for a championship that has defined the franchise. They seem complacent? The reason, of course, is that the team has a publicly stated goal to slash its payroll to $189 million by the 2014 season in order to fall under the luxury tax for the first time since it was implemented for the 2003 payroll. The Yankees have been spending money like crazy for so long, have spared no expense in the name of championships so consistently, that looking at the bottom line all of a sudden feels somehow crass, beneath thema betrayal. And you’re seeing fans react with their wallets (note the empty seats during last year’s playoffs). The Yankees’ attempts to save money are costing them money. The Yankees brand has, amazingly, been tarnished. Which is a shame. Because not only are the Yankees right to be slashing their payroll, but I bet they’re gonna win the American League East again this season too.

First, let’s talk about the money. Look, I know it’s not the most popular thing to start explaining why a billionaire corporationone that already has sky-high ticket prices and is fighting with StubHub, which has helped make some tickets at last affordable on days when the market can bear itshould be slashing its payroll, but I’m gonna try anyway. When Yankees co-owner Hal Steinbrenner announced he wanted to get that payroll down to the $189 million number by 2014, he was doing it for his own bank account, of course. But he was also doing it for the sake of the franchise in the long term. It’s a smart play.

Here’s why: Major League Baseball’s luxury-tax limit will be $189 million in 2014. Going over it once is bad, with a 17.5 percent tax involved; going over it every seasonten times so far and countingas the Yankees have is potentially devastating. That’s because the punishments, under the new collective-bargaining agreement, get worse every year. When you go over four years in a row at the maximum percentage, like the Yankees, the tax hits 50 percent. There are rumorsnow that there are teams other than the Yankees, like the Dodgers, over the tax limitthat it will become even more punitive after that. But all you have to do is get under it once and everything resets. Getting under will save the Yankees at least $20 million a season and perhaps even more down the line. That money can and surely will be spent later, with interest.


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