Warner Bros. admits spending $125 million on The Last Samurai, from director Ed Zwick (Glory). A disillusioned Civil War hero (Tom Cruise) is recruited to modernize Japan’s army and confronts rebels led by a great samurai warrior (Ken Watanabe). This entertaining culture-clash adventure needs critical support to go all the way to a Best Picture slot.
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Viggo Mortensen in Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
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Still unscreened, New Line Cinema’s The Return of the King, the final installment of the Lord of the Rings trilogy, is getting strong early buzz as the best of the three, which cost a total of $300 million. Director Peter Jackson, denied a directing nomination last year, says he has supplied more intimate scenes along with the epic battles this time. If that is true, The Return of the King could be hard to beat (unless it starts to feel like old hat).
And there’s Seabiscuit, a summer hit. Universal and DreamWorks are flogging the Depression-era racehorse drama, spending big on early trade ads. But many fans of the Laura Hillenbrand best seller were underwhelmed by writer–director Gary Ross’s film, which may lack the necessary gravitas for a Best Picture berth.
GRIM AND GRIMMER: At least one brilliantly acted downer typically makes the Oscar short list. The leader in this category is Warner Bros.’ Mystic River, Brian Helgeland’s operatic adaptation of Dennis Lehane’s Boston-set mystery novel, directed by Clint Eastwood. Actors, the Academy’s largest and most powerful branch, are bound to recognize a cast led by Sean Penn, Tim Robbins, and Kevin Bacon.
Two other options will probably suffer from lack of exposure: Alejandro Iñárritu’s quite similar 21 Grams is packed with equally fine performances. But despite the backing of Universal’s Focus Features (which released last year’s Oscar-winning The Pianist), the structurally ambitious 21 Grams is unlikely to be as universally seen. Fox Searchlight is spending heavily to push In America, from Irish writer-director Jim Sheridan (My Left Foot, In the Name of the Father), the popular five-time Oscar nominee. But the moving, well-acted immigration story may also not be seen by enough people to reach critical mass.
Ron Howard has used his post-Oscar clout to make his toughest, grittiest movie to date, The Missing. While many critics are high on the Western, it may prove too unremittingly hard-boiled for commercial acceptance. The actors should reward Cate Blanchett, though, for her second tour de force of the year, after Veronica Guerin, which has faded from view.
THE DISTAFF SIDE: On the heartwarming side are Tim Burton’s Big Fish, a strange but undeniably moving fairy tale. Albert Finney should score an acting nomination, but the movie will need a big push from critics.
A strong commercial vehicle for Julia Roberts, Mike Newell’s Mona Lisa Smile may prove too stridently feminist to win over the largely male Academy voters.
SLOW AND SLOWER: Indies Focus and Lions Gate each have a languidly paced, lyrically directed film with minimal dialogue: Lost in Translation and Girl With a Pearl Earring, respectively. Both films have a shot at dislodging one of the studio big guns. Lauded by reviewers and art-house audiences alike, Lost in Translation’s failure to cross over to mainstream audiences may repeat itself within the Academy. And Girl With a Pearl Earring, from British feature-rookie Peter Webber, is the kind of stately period art film Oscar adores.
Nevertheless, the studios really do have the goods this year. They borrowed a page from the Miramax playbook and spent lavishly on gorgeous, well-acted, highbrow epics. The big-studio front-runners will be tough for any indie to catch.
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