This Media Life

The Jihad Defense

In a column on the Wall Street Journal's editorial page last week, Ballmer reiterated the company's core position: "We cannot compromise on the government's demands. . . . The current lawsuit would have Microsoft ignore the most important recent development in computing -- the Internet -- by shipping a version of Windows that omits the critical Internet capabilities."

Keep your eye on that ball.

The overwhelming thrust of the government's case is the depiction of Microsoft as a company that will use the lever and the threat of its dominant position to get its own way (effectively making itself into a taxing authority and protection racket). Microsoft, on the other hand, has consistently and dramatically insisted that the trial is about the browser's integral relationship to the operating system. This connection, this integration, represents the freedom to innovate, the freedom to design one's own products, the freedom to develop software without the government specifying features and functionality. And Microsoft has said again and again -- and Ballmer is saying once more -- that it will never, ever compromise on this point.

Are you following the ball?

What Microsoft has done is to raise the bar -- raise it higher and higher. We will never . . . We could never . . . We must never . . . Take this from us and you take the essence of who we are . . .

Now, let's assume everyone wants a settlement. The judge does not want to impose a remedy, because who would want to take responsibility for that? The Justice Department does not want to risk appeals that might push this into a Bush administration. What's more, the Justice Department already has its victory. Microsoft, for its part, is motivated to avoid the brand (the red-hot kind of brand rather than the marketing kind) of monopolist and all the litigation that could invite.

Clearly, though, the government needs that browser de-linked. The link is the most visible symbol of Microsoft's power. So count on it: Over the next several weeks, Microsoft will make linkage the insurmountable stumbling block of its negotiations with the government. It will push the government to the precipice of demanding the breakup of the company (at the same time, we'll see a rash of stories about why a breakup isn't so bad for Microsoft; not punishment but victory; not a Microsoft divided but a Microsoft multiplied; indeed, three dominance-driven companies run by Redmond-inculcated religious warriors).

And then (still following?) Ballmer folds. He comes back into the room from his final call with Gates and agrees to do what the company has said it would rather be broken up than ever bow to: It will de-link. Explorer, which, as it just happens, claims an overwhelming share of the browser market, will no longer be inexorably tied to Windows.

The government will stand proud. Microsoft will accept its martyrdom.The people out in Redmond, playing their roles, will even be properly penitent. Gates will announce he's stepping out of the role of manager and into the role of statesman. You'll even be able to use Netscape if you want.

Let the infidels believe they have won.

E-mail: michael@burnrate.com