Intelligencer

Popular Votes

A random sampling of New Yorkers.

Published May 21, 2005

Pollsters aren’t that interested in what New Yorkers think of this race. But we are. So in our own highly unscientific survey—conducted the morning after the last debate—we stopped 100 people randomly in the Union Square subway station. The breakdown (yes, we really got such nice and even numbers): Democrats: 70. Republicans: 10. Independents/other: 20.

The Numbers
Of The Republicans:
Pro-Bush - 6 (60%)
Pro-Kerry - 3 (30%)
Undecided - 1 (10%)
But then again, we found only ten Republicans.

Of The Democrats:
Pro-Kerry - 63 (90%)
Pro-Bush - 1 (1.4%)
Undecided - 6 (8.6%)

Of The Independents:
Pro-Kerry - 10 (50%)
Pro-Bush - 1 (5%)
Undecided - 9 (45%)
Republicans who watched the last debate - 8
Number of those who thought Bush won - 5 (63%)

Democrats who watched the last debate - 51
Number of those who thought Kerry won - 47 (92%)

Independents who watched the last debate - 13
Number of those who thought Kerry won - 11 (85%)
Number of those who thought Bush won - 1 (7.7%)
(One couldn’t decide.)

The Great Undecideds
Surprisingly—or perhaps not at all—most of the sixteen undecideds couldn’t say what would make them make up their minds. “I don’t know” was the most common answer. “What goes on in Iraq between now and the election,” said William Juman, an independent. “Another candidate,” said Donald Bowers, 33, a Democrat. Two of the sixteen confessed that people have made fun of them for being undecided. And only four said they knew other undecideds. (Twenty-three of the decideds knew undecideds.)

The Partisans
Percentage of Kerry supporters who are feeling optimistic about his chances - 64.5%
Percentage of Bush supporters who are feeling optimistic about his chances - 62.5%

If your candidate loses the election, what’s the worst thing that you think could happen?

PRO-BUSH
“The economy will tank.”
“Another terrorist attack, because Kerry would just treat [the war on terrorism] as a nuisance.”
“There will be more taxes and less health-care options.”

PRO-KERRY
“The rich will just get richer.”
“Armageddon.”
“Very conservative Supreme Court nominations.”
“The best—most progressive—people will leave the country.”
“My European friends would be distraught!”