The City Politic

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Will Bill?

Although Thompson has differed with Bloomberg on a number of fronts—budget cuts, firehouse closings, social promotion in schools, Snapplegate—his chief line of attack against the mayor seems, for now, to be about style.

“The argument against Bloomberg that works is one that talks about inspired leadership in the city,” Thompson says. “It’s one that talks about some of the comments that Mike makes—'There’s nobody who works at minimum wage in New York’—that clearly show he doesn’t fully understand the city he represents. If I didn’t think that I could be a better leader than the mayor, then I wouldn’t consider running.”

The son of a powerful Brooklyn judge, Thompson built his career mostly out of public view. Starting in the early seventies, he rose through the Brooklyn political machine, from congressional aide to deputy borough president, did his Wall Street tour, then headed the Board of Education, before notching his 2001 surprise victory as comptroller, his first run at elected office.

Along the way, he built relationships with county leaders, powerful Williamsburg rabbis, labor kingpins, and business and real-estate executives. Those relationships, he says, helped him develop the kind of broad-based understanding of the city that he says Bloomberg lacks. The mayor’s aides, for their part, say Thompson’s broadside lacks substance. “If Billy wants to run for mayor, he has to tell us what he would do differently,” says Bloomberg spokesman William Cunningham. “Instead, he gives us a cheap political attack and goes on his merry way.”

Thompson’s primary rivals, meanwhile, argue that his political math is fuzzy. Ferrer supporters say that their guy is far better known; there’s no way the virtually unknown Thompson can compete. Miller backers say a Thompson candidacy helps them; it will split the minority vote, and the white vote will put them over the top.

Just about everyone is aware of Thompson’s lackluster stump style. After Thompson’s remarks at a recent labor dinner were met with perfunctory applause, Miller gave a rousing speech that, his preppy aura notwithstanding, had the mostly minority audience whooping. Thompson could easily become another Carl McCall—liked by insiders but unable to rev up voters.

Incumbency is formidable enough when it isn’t backed by $100 million, and many are convinced that in the end, Thompson will prove far too cautious to brave the 2005 contest. Why give up a cushy comptroller’s gig and risk a crowded primary, much less a general election against a $4 billion incumbent? Thompson, they say, will run for easy reelection and take his shot at City Hall in 2009.

Thompson is also wary of a repeat of 2001, when revenge-minded Ferrer backers withheld support from Mark Green after the primary. Thompson has privately raised these concerns with Ferrer. “I’ve said to Freddy that we all may wind up in this race,” Thompson says. “It would mean that both of us have to walk on eggshells. We have to be careful not to alienate the other person’s constituency.”

Thompson advisers concede that Bloomberg has begun to connect with voters—an April 23 Times poll put the mayor’s approval rating at 38 percent, up from 24 percent a year ago. If the mayor’s popularity keeps rising, Thompson won’t run. But if Bloomberg’s support next fall is no stronger than it is today—the poll also said 64 percent of New Yorkers want a new mayor—then there’s little doubt Thompson will join the race. After all, not running might allow another Dem to win, forcing Thompson to put off a mayoral run until 2013.

Sources say Thompson adviser Hank Sheinkopf is interviewing pollsters and will be polling by May. So what are the odds of a Thompson run? “It’s 60-40,” Thompson says. “If I think I can beat him, I’ll go.”

And if he had to decide today? He doesn’t miss a beat: “Yes.”