(Photo: James Leynse/Corbis )

Loftland: Soho, Tribeca, and The Flatiron District
If you’re reading this in your downtown loft, you’re in luck: You own one of the most coveted properties in town, better protected from a downturn than almost any other. Take recent history as your guide: In the nineties, when Manhattan real estate reached a nadir, Soho and Tribeca lofts recovered way before the rest of the city, says Michael Martin of real-estate-appraisal firm Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson. “The average sale price downtown turned the corner in 1994,” he says, “while it wasn’t until 1996 that the rest of the market began to rise.” The same thing happened after 9/11, says Corcoran’s Linda Gertler, who sold a $9 million loft right after the attacks to a celebrity couple who paid the full asking price. Of the areas with the highest concentration of lofts, the Flatiron district, with a pleasant mix of commerce and residential life plus lots of subway lines, is probably best shielded from a market dip. Tribeca’s solid, too, having been taken over by families so devoted to P.S. 234 that they won’t think about leaving till it’s time for junior high. (Corcoran’s MiMi Murphy notes that “they’re not buying for buzz or because celebrities love the area.”) The best of the newer conversions, in buildings like the Chelsea Mercantile and the Loft Residences at 116 Hudson, are unlikely to feel a downturn: “They’re so in demand, because they can’t be re-created,” explains Shaun Osher of the Newcastle Realty Group. Surprisingly, the grande dame of loftland, Soho, may feel more of a pinch, because its cachet has been eroded by the tourist mobs. Overall advice: Take cover, and wait for the worst to pass.

Risk Factor: 3.5