(Photo: James Leyne)

Harlem
There are really two markets in Harlem—new condos and old houses—and they have radically different prospects. Of late, developers have swarmed over upper Manhattan’s vacant lots and parking garages, and most have found buyers. But that oh-so-alluring bang for your buck could quickly turn into a clunk if this market stalls. (We can already hear cackles from the anti-gentrification crowd.) No matter what a lot of new buyers say—“I’d rather be here than in the Village!”—many would’ve settled elsewhere if they could. Add the potential for oversupply (it’s said that a third of Manhattan’s residential construction is slated for Harlem), and you have a recipe for trouble. That said, West Harlem is better situated than its eastern counterpart, where Harlem master broker Willie Kathryn Suggs says the market “will just grind to a stop and go nowhere until the next run-up.” The northward march of Columbia University will also keep prices up nearby, adds Bellmarc’s Neil Binder. Better-located new stuff, in central Harlem from 125th Street down to the park, won’t be hit so hard either. As for the brownstone market, recent buyers can consider themselves wise. Though houses here have appreciated 100 percent in the past year, they still cost half what they would 40 blocks to the south, so a large-scale correction isn’t in the works. Once here, buyers tend to stay, keeping inventory low. Best bets: Those near Mount Morris Park and in Hamilton Heights (where one has topped $2 million) and on Strivers Row. The finest houses—25-footers, those with meticulous renovations—will do best. As for East Harlem . . . look out below.

Risk Factor: 6.0