(Photo: James Leyne)

Established Brooklyn
Yes, that much-discussed $20 million house for sale in Brooklyn Heights is an anomaly. But in the established markets of Brooklyn—for our purposes here, the Heights, Boerum Hill, Carroll Gardens, Cobble Hill, Park Slope, and Fort Greene—most owners are sitting on safe ground. There’s a reason, after all, that all of Brooklyn Heights is landmarked: a large stock of graceful, irreplaceable, coveted townhouses. Those facing the Promenade are the top prizes, of course. Park Slope isn’t quite as refined, but it’s utterly beloved by its families looking for a stroller-friendly vibe and good schools. It’s doubtful that these owners will cash out in a downturn. The Slope is also insulated because it’s multifaceted, with many ethnicities working in varied industries living in all sorts of apartments, from brownstones to new condos, says Peggy Aguayo of Aguayo & Huebener. Skeptics may wonder about the stability of newly prime Fort Greene, but the area’s poised to ride out a bumpy market. In fact, says Elliman broker Marilyn Donahue, it may actually be as steady as Brooklyn Heights, thanks to its superlative housing stock and refurbished Fort Greene Park. Prices here also haven’t peaked—a Queen Anne one-family with intact mahogany wainscoting and a dumbwaiter was recently listed for a relatively modest $1.099 million. Proceed with caution, though, if you’re abutting Bed-Stuy, which may be rockier terrain. Another caveat: Brokers and developers try to extend the boundaries of prime neighborhoods to spread out the buzz. If your house is at, say, the bottom of the Slope toward the Gowanus Canal, you’re less protected from a fall.

Risk Factor: 3.5