(Photo: James Leyne/Corbis)

Queens: Long Island City and Jackson Heights
Lots of potential, lots of speculation, not enough people—yet. This is the story in Long Island City. While the neighborhood is solidly an artists’ haven—anchored by P.S. 1 and whatever’s left of MoMA QNS—there’s still not a strong enough residential core to insulate the area from a market crash. “Lots of speculation has driven prices up, but it hasn’t evolved enough as a neighborhood,” says Jeffrey Jackson, co-founder of the Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson appraisal firm. “Isolated” and “windy” is how even enthusiastic residents describe the place, which still lacks a major supermarket. (FreshDirect doesn’t deliver, even though its headquarters is here.) The only luxury high-rise co-op in “Queens West,” Citylights, may even face competition from the planned Olympic Village next door, and a 400-unit condo complex rising nearby. The views of Manhattan from all these new developments are unparalleled, and the ability to commute to Midtown East in fifteen minutes will keep it attractive to some. But first, Vernon Boulevard will need more than a few cute cafés and bars to draw actual residents—not just speculators—to the neighborhood. Jackson Heights, an entirely different beast, is still what one appraiser called a “vanilla neighborhood” without the hipster vitality of Astoria to the northwest. Corcoran’s Megan Hoffman likens it to Brooklyn Heights, suggesting that gardens, fireplaces, and historical designations there will keep it attractive—even though it’s twelve local stops from Grand Central.

Risk Factor: 5.0