Conventional wisdom holds that outlying neighborhoods, the ones that are comparatively recently gentrified, show the signs of a price drop first. Well, if Park Slope is the canary in the coal mine, the bird’s looking a little wheezy these days. If you compare the Slope’s price trend with that of Tribeca—the richest Zip Code in New York, and by some measures the most desirable—the difference is stark. Over the past twelve months, the average price for a Tribeca one-bedroom rose 23 percent; for three-bedrooms, the numbers are up 26 percent. In Park Slope over the same period, one-bedrooms are down 2 percent, and three-bedrooms are down 14 percent. There are multiple ways one can interpret these numbers: Optimists will say that they show core Manhattan holding tight and continuing to rise despite a weak economic outlook. Pessimists (or perhaps wishful bargain hunters) will say that Park Slope is showing the first signs of something dire that’s about to engulf the whole New York market. Keep an eye on that little yellow bird, folks.

Data supplied by Streeteasy.com.

Related:

• Archive: “Real Estate”
• Table of Contents: Apr 7, 2008 issue of New York | Subscribe!