Displaying all articles tagged:
Polls
vision 2020
July 26, 2020
Why 2020 Is Not Just Another 2016 Democrats can be forgiven for a superstitious fear of a Trump comeback. But the real threat may not emerge until the polls close.
By Ed Kilgore
The Coronavirus Crisis Is Proving That Democracy Works The president is bleeding support in counties hit hard by COVID-19, as previously pro-Trump voters rationally respond to evidence of his failures.
By Eric Levitz
Trump Believes That He Is Losing Because He Hasn’t Been Racist Enough On the one hand, all available evidence suggests this is wrong. On the other hand, Tucker Carlson suggests it is right.
By Eric Levitz
vision 2020
June 30, 2020
Democrats Are on Pace for a Down-Ballot Blowout The party’s lead in the congressional generic ballot is higher now than it was in 2018.
By Eric Levitz
vision 2020
June 24, 2020
Trump Is Now the 2020 Underdog The incumbent’s path to reelection is decidedly narrowing.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
June 16, 2020
Why Do Trump Supporters Act Like His Reelection Is Certain? For reasons varying from a Trumpian infatuation with “winning” to thoughts of contesting a loss, many Republicans act as though it’s a done deal.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
June 12, 2020
Why Biden Needs to Win Big Given Trump’s Electoral College advantage and the need to win Senate races, Biden must have as big a national popular vote lead as he can get.
By Ed Kilgore
No One Group of Voters Will Determine Trump’s Fate Winning or losing a voter group is often less important than the margins, where a vote’s a vote–except in the Electoral College.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump Campaign Puts President’s Psychological Needs Above His Political Ones The president’s team recently bought ad time in D.C. so Trump could hear positive things about himself on TV.
By Eric Levitz
2020 Election Polls Look Solid, But Not Perfect Primary polls were about as accurate as in 2016, though they failed to anticipate the Biden surge. November will be a bigger test for pollsters.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump’s Odds of Winning Reelection Are Higher Than You Think Weeks into a historic recession, the president’s approval rating remains higher than it’s been for most of his tenure.
By Eric Levitz
The State of the Presidential Race, Six Months Before Election Day Recent presidential elections show the eventual winner ahead at this point, except for Trump himself in 2016.
By Ed Kilgore
Why Kavanaugh Is the Focus of Republican Attacks on Biden The GOP would prefer to compare Biden to Kavanaugh, a party-unifying figure, rather than Trump himself, accused of far more misconduct.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Apr. 30, 2020
Trump Blasts ‘Fake Polling’ (Unless It Makes Him Look Good) You have to wonder if the president is attacking adverse polls in preparation for attacking adverse election results.
By Ed Kilgore
coronavirus
Apr. 23, 2020
Most Americans Want Those Protesting Stay-at-Home Orders to Stay at Home Democrats, Republicans, and independents are aligned in their opposition to protesters agitating for a swift reopening of the economy.
By Adam K. Raymond
vision 2020
Apr. 23, 2020
5 Reasons Pundits Will Overestimate Trump’s Odds of Winning in November Nobody wants to experience Trump gloating at their expense twice in a row.
By Ed Kilgore
Can Bernie Beat the Polls and Win Michigan Again? Clinton led Sanders by similarly large margins in 2016 polls in Michigan, only to lose. But higher turnout could be good news for Biden.
By Ed Kilgore
global politics
Feb. 28, 2020
Across the World, Voters Are Losing Faith in Government The percentage of citizens who believe that “the state is run for the benefit of all” has plummeted in a wide array of countries since 2002.
By Eric Levitz
authoritarianism
Feb. 24, 2020
President Trump Has Never Been More Dangerous Than He Is Now In the aftermath of impeachment, Trump’s poll numbers have been rising in tandem with his assaults on democracy.
By Eric Levitz
vision 2020
Feb. 19, 2020
Bernie Sanders Opens Up Double-Digit National Lead But Michael Bloomberg is surging in Super Tuesday states.
By Eric Levitz
state of the union address
Feb. 5, 2020
Live State of the Union Polling: Mixed News for a Divisive President Participants in live dial-testing seem to show support for some of Trump’s agenda, but it hasn’t translated to support for Trump.
By Sarah Jones
vision 2020
Jan. 22, 2020
Bernie Sanders Surges Into Lead in New CNN Poll Sanders is now tied with Biden among nonwhite voters, the survey suggests.
By Eric Levitz
By 2-to-1 Margin, Voters Say Trump’s Soleimani Strike Made U.S. ‘Less Safe’ In a new survey, a majority of Americans say Trump’s Iran policy is “reckless,” while just 24 percent say it made Americans “more safe.”
By Eric Levitz
Survey: Most Americans Can’t Find Iran on a Map Just 23 percent of registered voters could pick out Iran on an unlabeled map of the world.
By Adam K. Raymond
Sanders Leads in New Hampshire, Part of Three-Way Tie for First in Iowa: Poll The end of the holiday polling drought is great for Bernie, and not so great for Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg.
By Matt Stieb
Why Nobody Can Prevent the All-White Debate Stage There’s no formula for adding nonwhite candidates to debates that won’t add more white candidates as well, reversing the winnowing of the nonviable.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Dec. 20, 2019
January Debate Criteria May Winnow Democratic Field Some More The DNC rejects demands for a relaxation of qualifying criteria and for more podiums on the stage.
By Ed Kilgore
trump impeachment
Dec. 18, 2019
President Trump Is Getting More Popular A handful of recent polls show his approval rating climbing, despite his impending impeachment.
By Adam K. Raymond
vision 2020
Dec. 16, 2019
New Polls Are Good News for Biden, Bernie, and the Billionaire Candidates In five new national polls, Steyer’s and Bloomberg’s wallets are making an impact, while Biden and Sanders continue to show strength.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Dec. 12, 2019
Trump’s Approval Rating Impervious to Impeachment The best indicator of Trump’s reelection prospects is holding steady — at just short of what he needs to win.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Dec. 11, 2019
Polling Drought Helps Winnow Democratic Debate Field After Thanksgiving, debate-qualifying polls dried up.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Dec. 10, 2019
Yang Qualifies, Busts Up All-White Debate Stage New polls show seven candidates set for the Los Angeles debate stage. It’s unlikely anyone else will make it.
By Ed Kilgore
Poll: Democrats Can Reduce Third-Party Voting in 2020 by Getting High on Weed A new survey suggests that a Democrat who supports marijuana legalization would lose far fewer votes to third parties in 2020 than one who doesn’t.
By Eric Levitz
Bloomberg Poll Bump Shows That Money Talks His unprecedented ad spending is getting everyone’s attention, but he’s got some high unfavorability numbers, too.
By Ed Kilgore
impeachment
Nov. 26, 2019
Impeachment Polls Steady, Tracking Trump Job Approval Indications that political independents were souring on impeachment were probably premature.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Nov. 20, 2019
The Expected Pete Buttigieg Pile-On Never Happened in the Atlanta Debate Mayor Pete has been surging in Iowa and New Hampshire polls — but his rivals pretty much left him alone.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Nov. 19, 2019
10 Candidates Qualify for the November Democratic Debate Julián Castro failed to make the November cut. Six candidates have made the December debate, and Cory Booker is in the greatest danger of missing out.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Nov. 18, 2019
Kamala Harris Facing Home-State Heartburn Kamala Harris’s once-plausible path to the Democratic nomination is very rocky now. Maybe she’d be smart to pack it in before losing her home state.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Nov. 18, 2019
Is Pete Buttigieg Peaking Too Early in Iowa? Things are looking sunny for Mayor Pete, though there’s time for others to catch up in Iowa, and he still needs to woo more nonwhite voters.
By Ed Kilgore
Three Years Later, Trump Has Lost the Element of Surprise Memories of the shock of Election Night 2016 could become a strategic asset for Democrats, who sure won’t get over-confident in 2020.
By Ed Kilgore
Leftism Isn’t Very Appealing to Nonvoters. But Bernie Sanders Is. New survey data suggests nonvoting Democrats are less ideologically progressive — but more anti-Establishment — than their co-partisans.
By Eric Levitz
Good Pollsters Don’t Always Agree Nate Silver’s pollster ratings equally praise two outlets producing what sure look like wildly varying takes on how 2020 is shaping up.
By Ed Kilgore
Can Anyone Catch the Big Four in Iowa? Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren are far ahead of the rest of the field in Iowa, and there likely won’t be more than four tickets out of there.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Oct. 25, 2019
December Democratic Debate May Winnow Some More Candidates The polling threshold for making the stage will rise again, endangering several well-known candidates.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Oct. 21, 2019
Buttigieg Showing Strength in Iowa Meanwhile, would-be Biden alternatives Harris and Booker are struggling in Iowa, where they have both bet the farm.
By Ed Kilgore
Feinstein Endorsement May Mean Biden Is Feeling Desperate There’s no need for Feinstein to diss her colleagues — notably Kamala Harris — with this step unless Biden really needs it.
By Ed Kilgore
November Debate: Who’s In, Who’s Out? A heightened polling requirement could ensnare several candidates who made the grade for earlier debates.
By Ed Kilgore
Warren Overtakes Biden for Lead in National Polls For the first time, the former veep’s not leading in the RealClearPolitics national polling average.
By Ed Kilgore
Poll: 58 Percent of Americans Support Impeachment Inquiry Nearly half of Americans already support removing Trump from office.
By Adam K. Raymond
Load More
