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Heilemann on Obama’s V.P. Conundrum

Where exactly does one find a running mate untainted by Old Politics who also happens to be ready from day one to be commander-in-chief?

Pundits Deal From the Race Deck on South Carolina

Obama towers
As America recovers from the gladiator-like contest that was Monday's Democratic debate, we look ahead to the next battleground, South Carolina. Well, not everyone: Recognizing that the state's large black population has decisively tipped the polls in Barack Obama's favor — in their endorsement, S.C.’s biggest newspaper called Obama the “only Democrat who plausibly can say that he wants to work with Americans across the political spectrum” — Hillary Clinton has basically abandoned the place to campaign in populous Super Tuesday states. Yeah, right — abandoned like a fox. Clinton’s got it all planned out, as usual. • David Broder says that, given his demographic advantages, not winning South Carolina on Sunday would mean Obama's pretty much done for. [WP]

This Thing Is Still Wide Open

The rapidly emerging conventional wisdom after tonight's victories in New Hampshire for Hillary Clinton and John McCain runs as follows: • Both races are still up for grabs, although the Democrats have probably narrowed to a Barack-Hillary face-off. • We'll all be sick of hearing about The Cry very soon. • Unless McCain runs the table through Florida, even Rudy still has a shot, because Republican momentum is so divided. On the big question of the night — why were the polls showing Obama with a double-digit lead so wrong, and how did Hillary come back? — there are many answers. Because the media underplayed the margin of error, says Talking Points Memo. Because Democrats like a fighter, says Slate. Because people like to look racially progressive when they talk to pollsters but turn conservative in the voting booth (a.k.a. the "Bradley Effect") says the National Review and many others (Franklin Foer has a less depressing variation on this theme, too.) Because New Hampshire voters didn't want to copy Iowa again, says the New Republic. Because of voter backlash against the media's Obama hype, says Andrew Sullivan. One thing is for sure: The year ahead is going to be pretty interesting.

‘Vanity Fair’ Makes New Giuliani Ad Seem Even Nuttier

Giuliani ad
It’s not all Spitzer for Vanity Fair: The current issue also contains a towering Rudy profile, "A Tale of Two Giulianis," by Michael Shnayerson (whose sister Maggie is now the longest-serving editor at Gawker). In a lower-key fashion than last week’s dueling Newsweek and Village Voice features on Rudy’s supposed terror ties, Vanity Fair delivers a series of excellent mini-scoops on the man’s business practices. Case after well-researched case shows Giuliani peddling bits of his 9/11 reputation to just about any taker, from foreign governments to “typical denizens of the penny-stock world — dreamers and the occasional scam artist.” Shnayerson follows Giuliani’s paid-up crusade for the makers of OxyContin, first as a lobbyist, then a lawyer; his shilling for Nextel; etc. More disturbingly, he then catches Rudy putting plugs for his clients into his political speeches, which are then reported as legitimate news. The choicest tidbit, however, is the one where the author quickly settles a personal score.

Worst Prez-Candidate Profile You’ll Read All Year — We Hope!

All smiles
New York's cynical presidential contenders might be floundering, but hey, have you heard that Dennis Kucinich has a hot wife? The Washington Post thinks you haven’t. Witness "The Love Song of Dennis J. Kucinich," an annoyingly “voicey” feature on the candidate’s martial bliss. (“No Wonder the Candidate Saw a UFO. He's Been Up There on Cloud Nine.”) The narrative’s the same as it’s always been: He’s a troll, she looks like Natasha McElhone with a tongue stud, and the marriage works because they’re both New Age weirdos. The Post even opens with that old chestnut about how Kucinich has “already won,” which might have been authored by the candidate himself, but still, as we’ve mentioned before, makes us feel weird when the papers run with it: There’s something awfully locker-room about it, this notion of a filly as a consolation prize. Or, rather, something out of Mad Men. “He is short, at 5-7,” we’re informed for the thousandth time in that retro-swinish cadence, “And she is — wow, she just keeps on going.”

New York’s Dominant Politicians: So Last Month

What the hell happened? We headed into the new week secure in our conviction that New York is the nexus of the universe, and the rest of the world is finally coming to terms with it: Witness the election season dominated by an avowed Yankee fan … and Rudy Giuliani. Then came the latest poll numbers. According to USA Today-Gallup figures, Hillary has slipped by eleven points in the last month, and Rudy by nine. (Hey! Nine-eleven! Spooky!) Obama is actually leading Clinton in Iowa, and a man named Huckabee is closing the gap with Rudy. Dems hoping to ride the Clinton coattails are increasingly nervous, and Hillary herself is beginning to fidget: She’s intensified her anti-Obama rhetoric, calling him an unqualified “talker” (in what the Times terms a “mellifluous voice”).

Cable News Makes a Hostage Situation Very Confusing


The cable-news outlets have a funny way of turning a potentially scary situation into a media farce. About an hour after “confirming” that both hostages have been released from Hillary Clinton’s Rochester HQ in New Hampshire, CNN is now saying there’s a third hostage still inside — which would explain why there's been little recent news from the scene. As with every real-time news event, the media are bound to change the story several times as facts get settled, except this time we can’t even agree on the story’s genre. Is this a scary situation with a real bomb and hostages? Or are we now looking at a guy with no hostages and a fake bomb strapped to his chest? If it's the former, you've got perhaps massive repercussions throughout the election cycle. If it's the latter, you've got a deranged remake of Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. Really, we just want to know how much we should be freaking out here. Meanwhile, MSNBC says the suspect is a fellow named Leeland Eisenberg. Start counting how many times that bit of info changes. Also, his son-in-law says "he had been drinking" today. Oh, who hasn't ended up as the focus of the 24-hour news cycle after a few too many vodka-tonics? Earlier: Breaking: Man With Bomb Takes Hostages at Clinton's N.H. HQ Update: They got him! The last hostage was just released and the suspect is in police custody...

Breaking: Man With Bomb Takes Hostages at Clinton’s N.H. HQ

Clinton HQ
Remember how we told you two hours ago that Clinton’s camp is “circling the wagons” around New Hampshire, because, unlike Iowa, the state is a safe bet for Hill? Yeah, pretty much — except for the maniac with a bomb. A man allegedly holding an explosive device has taken hostages at Hillary Clinton’s campaign headquarters in Rochester, New Hampshire. The candidate herself is not there, but the bomb threat is apparently credible; a nearby school has been evacuated and negotiators are being brought in — along with a group of officers with guns drawn. CNN says two people are inside, although it’s unclear whether this means two hostages or a hostage and the perp. Stay tuned, obviously. —Michael Idov Update: CNN is reporting that the suspect is asking to speak to Senator Clinton; security has been tightened at Obama and Edwards's HQs. Update, 3:34 PM: There are no more hostages inside, but the suspect is still in the building with a bomb-like device strapped to his chest. The Clinton campaign has released a terse statement ("We are in close contact with state and local authorities"). SWAT members have been able to contact the perp and "calm him down," although he remains inside. Police responding to incident at Clinton campaign office [CNN]