Displaying all articles tagged:
Turnout
2022 midterms
July 27, 2021
Why 2022 Won’t Be Another 1994 Republican Tidal Wave Lindsey Graham’s prediction of an impending red wave ignores several key factors behind the GOP’s historic gains in Bill Clinton’s first midterm.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Oct. 16, 2020
What the Early-Voting Deluge Could Mean for the Election Record levels of early voting may mean record overall turnout. But even if early voters are just voting earlier, it could make for a quicker count.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Feb. 25, 2020
Could a Youth-Vote Surge Offset Bernie’s Vulnerabilities in November? So far the evidence isn’t there that Sanders is creating some big youth-turnout surge. He could win anyway, but not by disdaining regular Democrats.
By Ed Kilgore
Why Wasn’t Turnout Better in Iowa? Maybe it was just a matter of complacent Democrats not knowing or caring whom they support against Trump. But it doesn’t show an expanding coalition.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Jan. 27, 2020
Why Polls Might Get the Iowa Caucuses Wrong Caucuses and primaries are very different environments … starting with who shows up in the first place.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Nov. 15, 2019
Black Turnout Could Make or Break Democrats in 2020 Democrats need high black turnout if they want to oust Trump. Putting Stacey Abrams on the ticket might be the best available strategy.
By Ed Kilgore
Three Years Later, Trump Has Lost the Element of Surprise Memories of the shock of Election Night 2016 could become a strategic asset for Democrats, who sure won’t get over-confident in 2020.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
July 15, 2019
Why High Turnout May Not Help Democrats in 2020 Democrats need a backup plan in case turning the presidential election into a polarized frenzy drives untapped Trump voters to the polls, too.
By Ed Kilgore
Team Trump Says Polling Is ‘a Joke.’ Is There Any Truth to That? The more you look at the Trump campaign’s efforts to discredit polling, the more it discredits itself.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Apr. 29, 2019
Why Trump Will Be an Underdog in the 2020 Election There are a lot of moving parts in Election 2020, but at this point Trump remains a loudly growling underdog.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Apr. 23, 2019
The Turnout Boom in 2018 Was a Preview for 2020 A Trump-centric election and the expansion of ways to register and vote early should combine to keep turnout as high in 2020 as it was in 2018.
By Ed Kilgore
2018 midterms
Nov. 7, 2018
2014’s Electorate Showed Up to the 2018 Election. But It Voted Differently. Exit polls from the pro-Republican 2014 and pro-Democratic 2018 elections show similarly shaped electorates, but a change in public opinion.
By Ed Kilgore
2018 midterms
Nov. 5, 2018
What Can We Learn From Early Voting This Year? Turnout Is High. Early voting numbers don’t show who’s going to win nationally. High turnout could point to a Democratic wave, but 2016 suggests caution is in order.
By Ed Kilgore
2018 midterms
Oct. 19, 2018
Democrats Are Ending the Once-Powerful Republican Midterm Turnout Advantage College-educated white voters tilting towards Democrats and sure to turn out. If young and minority voting surges too, the wave could be substantial.
By Ed Kilgore
2018 midterms
Oct. 4, 2018
Will the Kavanaugh Fight Affect the Midterms? All the noise about Kavanaugh could encourage the older white voters who usually vote in midterms to show up, but Democratic enthusiasm remains high.
By Ed Kilgore
2018 midterms
Sept. 23, 2018
Lessons From the 2018 Primary Season Things look good for Democrats as the primaries end, but there remain a lot of tossup races.
By Ed Kilgore
2018 elections
Aug. 30, 2018
If Gillum’s Coalition Shows Up in November, It Could Be a Game-Changer Florida’s Andrew Gillum seems to have gotten a lot of young and minority voters who don’t usually participate in midterms to show up.
By Ed Kilgore
California Property Tax Initiative Could Be Another Boon to GOP Turnout A Realtor-backed ballot initiative expanding property tax loopholes for homeowners over 55 could drive turnout among Republican-leaning voters.
By Ed Kilgore
Texas Primary Roundup: Democratic Turnout Shows Progress, But No Revolution Many contests won’t be resolved until a May runoff, but some upsets enlivened 2018’s first statewide election.
By Ed Kilgore
A Surge in Primary Turnout Is a Good Sign for Democrats, But Not a Guarantee If Democratic primary voting surges in Texas today, it could be a relatively meaningless blip, or an omen that the state is slowly turning blue.
By Ed Kilgore
Democrat Looking Strong in Trump-Country Special Congressional Election Conor Lamb’s not a long-shot candidate anymore, despite heavy GOP and Trump efforts on behalf of his opponent.
By Ed Kilgore
Early Voting Among Texas Democrats Is Off the Charts It’s a sign of superior enthusiasm, not any guarantee of success in November, but it confirms Democrats have a wind at their backs.
By Ed Kilgore
Jones Upsets Moore and Humiliates Trump in Deep-Red Alabama On the back of strong turnout from African-Americans and a superior campaign, Doug Jones pulled an upset that will echo into next year’s midterms.
By Ed Kilgore
Turnout Will Win It for Moore or Jones, But GOP Will Have a Headache Either Way In a strange campaign where the front-runner disappeared and the polls are all over the place, turnout patterns will matter most.
By Ed Kilgore
Roy Moore Hasn’t Won Just Yet Moore has improved his position since being hit with sexual-misconduct allegations, but African-American turnout for Doug Jones could be crucial.
By Ed Kilgore
Moore Using Abortion Issue to Shame Conservatives Into Voting on December 12 Roy Moore’s emphasis on the abortion issue shows the importance of a narrow band of conservative voters who may or may not go to the polls.
By Ed Kilgore
Will the Obama Coalition Turn Out in 2018? Virginia Might Offer Some Clues Non-presidential election falloff in the base is a long-standing problem for Democrats that they haven’t clearly solved.
By Ed Kilgore
In Most Expensive House Race Ever, Ossoff Takes the Lead Polling shows Democrat Jon Ossoff with a significant lead over Republican Karen Handel in Georgia’s special election. That defies conventional wisdom.
By Ed Kilgore
Ossoff Race Shows Democratic Turnout at Levels Needed for Midterm Wave An analysis of Georgia’s special election shows Democrats turning out more than Republicans — which is unusual.
By Ed Kilgore
Did Democrats Just Begin an Electoral Comeback by Winning in Delaware? In a special election that could have given Republicans control of yet another legislative chamber, robust turnout gave Democrats a much-needed win.
By Ed Kilgore
Clinton’s Failure With the Working Class Had Little to Do With Trump Voters Clinton didn’t lose the Rust Belt because white working-class Democrats voted for Trump. She lost it because they stayed at home.
By Eric Levitz
Latino Turnout Surges in Early Voting And it could help Hillary Clinton outperform her polling in a few key swing states.
By Eric Levitz
What Clinton’s Campaign Should Be Doing in the Final Days For Hillary Clinton, the race is tightening at the worst possible time. She needs a strict focus on turnout operations in the states she has to win.
By Ed Kilgore
Clinton Works to Turn Out Her Base, and Trump Helps Her The two candidates’ very different strategies for mobilizing base voters could have different side effects. Trump’s could rile up the opposing base.
By Ed Kilgore
Can Fear and Hate Turn Out the Vote As Much As Enthusiasm? Normally a lack of enthusiasm for the candidates will depress turnout. But strong antipathy along with a sense of high stakes can do the trick, too.
By Ed Kilgore
If You Want a More Democratic Nominating Process, Take a Look at Caucuses First Primaries are far more participatory. Disgruntled Sanders supporters, among others, should take notice.
By Ed Kilgore
the midterm snapshot
Nov. 2, 2010
The Midterm Snapshot: November 2 Will the GOP be surfing a mere wave, or a tsunami?
By Dan Amira
early and often or not at all
Oct. 7, 2009
We’re Not Sure You Realize How Few People Voted Last Month Were you one of the 2 percent of New Yorkers to elect John Liu and Bill de Blasio?
By Dan Amira
early and often or not at all
Sept. 17, 2009
New Yorkers More Indifferent Than Ever A turnout record was set on Tuesday, in a bad way.
By Dan Amira