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Vision 2020
early and often
Mar. 28, 2024
Trump Would Need New Tactics to Steal the 2024 Election Many avenues Trump pursued in his 2020 coup attempt are now off the table. This time, he could turn to even more nefarious methods.
early and often
Jan. 25, 2024
Trump’s Best Shot at Overturning the 2024 Election Many strategies Trump used in his attempt to steal the 2020 election are no longer available. But there is one legal loophole he could still exploit.
early and often
Apr. 16, 2023
Trump Leads GOP Field In His Personal Hell, Georgia The first major poll from Georgia shows the former president with a big lead in a state that has handed him multiple defeats since 2020.
By Ed Kilgore
early and often
Dec. 3, 2022
Why Democrats Upended Their Primary Calendar The old Iowa–New Hampshire duopoly is history.
By Ed Kilgore
Pence Rebukes Trump, Calls His View of January 6 Powers ‘Un-American’ Less than a week after Trump claimed Pence could and should have overturned the 2020 election, the former veep laid down the actual law.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Jan. 24, 2022
Democrats Need Republican Mistakes to Hang On to the Senate A normal midterm swing could help Republicans sweep close Senate races. But Trump and intraparty problems could help Democrats keep control.
By Ed Kilgore
Biden Didn’t Have the Power or Luck to Become FDR or LBJ Biden is trying to govern in an era totally unlike the 1930s or 1960s with little margin for error and a lot of nasty surprises. Give him a break.
By Ed Kilgore
Never Mind the Facts. Trump Fans Feel Like a Majority When you’ve been convinced polls are fake and actual elections are rigged, it is easy to confuse visible signs of enthusiasm as a ticket to power.
By Ed Kilgore
Will a Doomed Voting-Rights Push Really Help Biden? Democrats’ “supercharged” drive to pass voting-rights legislation, which will likely fail, could discourage base voters more than sober realism.
By Ed Kilgore
Are Democrats Just Repeating Obama’s First Year? There are some striking similarities between the party’s current problems and what they faced 12 years ago. But Obama did manage to get reelected.
By Ed Kilgore
Why Biden Wants You to Think He’s Running in 2024 Whether or not he actually plans to run again, there are many good reasons for the president to keep insisting that he’s seeking a second term.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Dec. 21, 2021
California May Help Democrats Curb 2022 Losses The results of the Golden State’s redistricting process could endanger GOP incumbents, offsetting Democrats’ expected U.S. House losses.
By Ed Kilgore
Despite Iowa-Caucus Debacle, 2024 Process Probably Won’t Change The earlier impetus for change among Democrats angry at the 2020 Iowa-caucus meltdown seems to be fading as the party has bigger problems to address.
By Ed Kilgore
Could Trump Really Depose Mitch McConnell? It’s hard to imagine Republicans denying Donald Trump anything he demanded, but ousting Mitch McConnell as GOP leader won’t be easy.
By Ed Kilgore
2024 vision
Dec. 14, 2021
Democrats Need a Three-Year Plan to Save Democracy That means largely abandoning hope for 2022 and preparing to do battle at Armageddon with Trump in 2024.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump Goes Global With Big Lie Litmus Test Foreign leaders like former Israeli prime minister Bibi Netanyahu are being cast as enemies for recognizing the 2020 election results.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2024
Dec. 12, 2021
Republicans Are Too Afraid of Trump to Fix Election Laws Prominent liberals and conservatives favor reform to a statute that helped produce chaos on January 6. But Congress won’t budge.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Dec. 8, 2021
Trump Ignites Republican Civil War in Georgia The unprecedented primary challenge of Brian Kemp is going to get exceptionally ugly.
By Ed Kilgore
State Legislatures Are Still the Key to Trump’s Election-Coup Efforts The radical theory that state legislatures have total power over federal elections is at the heart of Trump’s past, and perhaps future, coup attempts.
By Ed Kilgore
If Roe Is Reversed, Democrats Need to Be Ready At a time when their party has convinced itself to avoid social issues, they should prepare for a culture-war battle they can win.
By Ed Kilgore
past is prologue
Nov. 25, 2021
Cheer Up, Democrats! You’ve Had It Worse Than This. The Democratic Party has a lot of problems, but it’s faced similarly sticky situations before and survived.
By Ed Kilgore
For Pete’s Sake, Stop the Presidential Buzz About Buttigieg The secretary of Transportation has plenty of fish to fry without constant speculation that antagonizes Kamala Harris supporters to no good end.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2024
Nov. 15, 2021
If Biden Retires in 2024, Kamala Harris Will Be the Democratic Nominee For all the negative punditry about the veep lately, don’t underestimate all the advantages she’ll have if Biden gives way to her.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Nov. 15, 2021
Beto O’Rourke Is Running for Governor in Texas The former Democratic phenom must overcome past questions to challenge a strong but vulnerable Republican incumbent in a red state turning purple.
By Ed Kilgore
Democrats Shouldn’t Run Away From Their Non-White Party Base White racial resentments are on the rise again. But Democrats shouldn’t dispossess non-white voters in a bid to chase white voters they may never win.
By Ed Kilgore
Sununu Passes on Senate Race, Giving Democrats a Break The popular New Hampshire governor was a key part of the formula for a Republican takeover of the Senate in 2022. Now it gets tougher for the GOP.
By Ed Kilgore
Enough With the Tired ’90s Takes on Today’s Democrats Mark Penn and Andrew Stein are advising Biden to turn his back on decades of change within his party and his country. It won’t, and shouldn’t, work.
By Ed Kilgore
6 Takeaways From Glenn Youngkin’s Win in Virginia Early data suggests the Republican governor-elect benefited from higher turnout in pro-GOP areas and among white working-class voters in particular.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Nov. 2, 2021
Raffensperger Fears Future Election Violence, Can’t Stick Around to Thwart It The 45th president’s least favorite Republican official is fighting very high odds against his renomination by the Trumpy Georgia GOP.
By Ed Kilgore
Most Republicans Already Say They Can’t Lose in 2024 Unless the Vote Is Rigged It’s bad enough that Republicans believe Trump’s Big Lie. It’s worse that they believe the bigger lie that he couldn’t — and can’t — lose.
By Ed Kilgore
January 6 Committee May Finally Spur Electoral Count Act Fix If House Democrats move to fix the flawed procedures for confirming elections, Republicans may be compelled to go along or devise their own reforms.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump Can’t Lose in the Virginia Governor’s Race The 45th president can spin both a Democratic and a Republican win as reinforcing his indispensability. And the same will be true in 2022.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Oct. 28, 2021
David Perdue May Primary Trump Foe Brian Kemp in Georgia It seemed Governor Kemp had outfoxed Trump, but now the former president may have reeled in a serious challenger.
By Ed Kilgore
For Mike Pence, Running a Doomed Presidential Race Is a Living The former veep doesn’t have to be a plausible presidential candidate to stay on the gravy train.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Oct. 20, 2021
2020 Was a Victory That Quietly Crushed Democrats’ Hopes Winning the White House and Congress was obviously better than losing, but many current Democratic struggles are rooted in 2020 underperformance.
By Ed Kilgore
Never Trump ‘Red Dogs,’ Democrats’ Litmus Tests Are Not About You Democrats spent years achieving a progressive consensus and are far from total unity. But they can’t turn back the clock to please ex-Republicans.
By Ed Kilgore
Is It Time for Democrats to Panic About Virginia — and the Midterms? Here’s some reassurance even for Democrats who are worried Glenn Youngkin’s defeat of Terry McAuliffe for governor would foretell a 2022 disaster.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump Says Republicans Must Solve the Big Lie or Their Voters Won’t Vote It’s unclear how Trump’s phony fraud incidents can be solved by a party that opposes federal election legislation. But it keeps the focus on himself.
By Ed Kilgore
Democratic Losses in 2022 Won’t Doom Biden’s Reelection Clinton and Obama bounced back after their party’s poor midterm performances, and Biden will have the benefit of incumbency in 2024.
By Ed Kilgore
Audit Fever Is Now Spreading to States Trump Easily Won Trump supporters are skeptical about the integrity of our elections, and they’re starting to devour their own.
By Ed Kilgore
Kamala Harris Shouldn’t Have to Save the 2024 Election If Congress fixes the Electoral Count Act now, it could reduce the odds of the vice president needing to assert powers she may not really have.
By Ed Kilgore
Embattled Democrats Should Count Their Blessings Democrats may not leave the legacy their trifecta led them to expect. But it could have been far worse if 2020 election results had shifted slightly.
By Ed Kilgore
past is prologue
Sept. 29, 2021
Biden May Bounce Back Like Other Presidents Have History shows that presidents usually get reelected unless they are unlucky, or, like Donald Trump, they work hard at alienating voters.
By Ed Kilgore
California Republicans’ Demonization of Voting by Mail May Backfire The state has made universal voting by mail permanent. Now Republicans must deal with the effect of Trump’s disinformation on mail ballots.
By Ed Kilgore
arizona audit
Sept. 27, 2021
Arizona Audit Aftermath Shows Trump Conspiracy Theories Will Go On Forever Yes, the recount in Arizona showed Biden’s lead actually increasing, but there’s always another rabbit hole for MAGA folks to explore.
By Ed Kilgore
No, Gavin Newsom Isn’t Going to Sprint to the White House The California governor deserves a lot of credit for crushing the recall. But he wouldn’t have been in such a jam without his own perceived arrogance.
By Ed Kilgore
Why a Troubled Polling Industry Whiffed on the California Recall Big 2020 polling errors nationwide were followed by big 2021 polling errors in California — but in the opposite direction.
By Ed Kilgore
Democrats Won the California Recall, But There Are Warning Signs for Midterms Newsom matched Biden’s 2020 performance, but their party needs to do even better to claw back desperately needed House seats.
By Ed Kilgore
california recall election
Sept. 9, 2021
A Defeat of the Newsom Recall Will Feed a New Round of MAGA Conspiracy Theories The recall has lost ground, or maybe never had any. But Newsom’s momentum will be treated by Trump and Republicans as signs of a rigged election.
By Ed Kilgore
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