CNN today:
In Florida (51% Biden to 46% for President Donald Trump) and Arizona (49% Biden to 45% Trump), registered voters break in Biden’s favor by single-digit margins, while in Michigan, Biden’s lead stands at 52% to 40%, matching the national average for the presidential race per the most recent CNN Poll of Polls. …
Across all three states, Trump’s approval ratings generally, for handling the coronavirus outbreak and for handling racial inequality in the US are underwater. There is some variation in the President’s overall approval rating, with disapproval at 57% in Michigan, 54% in Arizona and 51% in Florida.
But on coronavirus and racial inequality, two issues which have dominated the national conversation in the last few months, Trump’s disapproval stands around 60% across all three states. On the coronavirus outbreak, 60% disapprove in Arizona, 59% in Michigan and 57% in Florida. On racial inequality in the US, 59% disapprove in both Arizona and Michigan, 57% do so in Florida.
And from CBS News:
While the president leads among Americans who approve of using of federal agents in U.S. cities, who are skeptical of the Black Lives Matter movement, and who continue to downplay the impact of the virus, all of those groups are outnumbered in America at the moment.
Instead, more Americans are very concerned about the virus. Most parents are wary of sending their children back to school in the face of it, and they feel the president doesn’t care as much about the risks to their kids. Most Americans support the aim of the protests — and Biden leads among all of them.
In the upper Midwest, we see this playing out in two key states the president flipped from Democrats in 2016: Biden leads in Michigan by six points, and the president has the slightest one-point edge in Ohio, where he won by a comfortable margin four years ago. Ohio is also a critical part of the president’s overall electoral map in 2020.
A majority of Biden’s support in both these states comes from people who are mainly voting against Mr. Trump rather than for him.
Harry Enten adds in a tweet:
To me, the most telling number remains Trump’s just flat out bad net approval rating. Those tend to be pretty stable from now until the election. And given 90%+ of voters who approve are going for Trump & 90%+ voters who disapprove are going for Biden, that’s a huge deal.
Nate Silver wants to see how the COVID-19 situation plays out:
While he’s clearly in trouble, I do not buy that Trump’s fate is sealed. A lot could change in the next one hundred days. Things could get worse still for the president. But a turnaround in the COVID situation by the fall could make the election more competitive.
