the midterm snapshot

The Midterm Snapshot: October 27

Less than a week until the election, and guess what? The Democrats are still expected to lose the House. The latest prognostication comes from The Hill, whose massive survey of 17,000 likely voters points to GOP gains of around 50 seats. Even the weather is conspiring against the Democrats: The forecast at this point is “calling for rain in the Midwest, Southeast and Northeast regions.” This will have a greater impact on Democratic voters, who are generally poorer and would have more trouble getting to the polls. Plus, Democrats are less enthusiastic about voting this year to begin with, so for anyone on the fence about heading to the polls, bad weather could push them toward staying inside.

Meanwhile, in races around the country, John McCain mocks Joe Manchin, Jack Conway tries to capitalize off of Stompgate, and Christine O’Donnell threatens to crush a radio station with lawsuits.

• In the Delaware Senate race, the latest bizarre thing to come out of Christine O’Donnell’s campaign is an apology — for threatening to “crush” a radio station with lawsuits earlier in the day if it didn’t hand over and destroy video of their interview. That threat was made by O’Donnell’s campaign manager; the apology later came from the campaign’s lawyer. O’Donnell is down by a lot and will not win.

• In the Kentucky Senate race, Democrat Jack Conway is hoping to capitalize off of what he claims was Republican Rand Paul’s “tepid” and “evolved” response to Monday’s stomping incident. Conway wants Paul to return the donations he’s received from the stomper and issue an apology. Conway’s pollster, meanwhile, says that the more legitimate points in the campaign’s infamous “Aqua Buddha” ad have been overlooked. Conway trails Paul by seven points in the latest poll.

• In the West Virginia Senate race, Democrat Joe Manchin, who has seen a resurgence in the poll against Republican John Raese since basically turning on President Obama, was the target of a John McCain quip today. “I did notice that Gov. Manchin is running away from President Obama as fast as he can. If I can make a suggestion, I would suggest that the governor become a Republican and run against [Democratic Senator Jay] Rockefeller next time.” Meanwhile, Democrats are fretting about headlines regarding an investigation into abuse in Manchin’s administration. Manchin leads Raese by three points in the latest poll.

• In the Alaska Senate race, voters are going to have to remember Republican write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski all by themselves when they head to the polls, after a state judge ruled that poll workers could neither hand out a list of the write-in candidates running for office, nor remind voters of their names. Murkowski remains tied with fellow Republican Joe Miller.

• In the California Senate race, Republican Carly Fiorina was released from the hospital today and will return to the campaign trail tomorrow. “Since she was admitted to the hospital yesterday morning, Carly has been successfully treated for the infection she had as a result of reconstructive surgery following her victory over breast cancer,” her campaign said in a statement. Fiorina trails Democrat Barbara Boxer by five points, according to the latest poll.

• In the Nevada Senate, as Democrat Harry Reid runs a new ad describing the dark, scary Nevada that electing Republican Sharron Angle would create, he’ll likely pounce on Angle telling a church group earlier this month that Social Security and Medicare are “among the ‘wicked ways that we can confess as a church.’”

The Midterm Snapshot: October 27