Maaaaybe. The stats-whiz points out that, if you adjust for bias, an internal poll that showed Democrat David Weprin up eight points on GOP opponent Bob Turner actually might mean he’s effectively down two points; Silver also gives his blessing (with caveats — that’s kind of his thing!) to an independent poll that showed Turner up five points. Turner is, as Silver notes, polling much better than a generic Republican might in the district. (Side note: Try as we might, that phrase instantly conjures Mitt Romney. Second side note: If Turner loses, perhaps he and Bachmann should run for something together so we and other media can really get our fill of Canadian rock humor.)
Silver further points out that the N.Y.–9 race is relatively underfunded for a congressional campaign.That could be, as the Daily News points out, because of the risk that N.Y.–9 might disappear next year, thanks to a re-districting. Despite that, Weprin does have more cash — which figures prominently in Silver’s description of the Democrat’s advantages as more “tangible.” So he’d still give the edge to Weprin, despite poll numbers being what they are, with the caveat (really, it’s his thing) that “a victory by Mr.Turner would hardly be surprising.”
So if Silver’s stumped, who knows, really, how the race will go? We’d say “God,” perhaps, but even he seems undecided on this thing.
Earlier: Why the Dems Are Worried About the Race for Anthony Weiner’s Seat
NY-9 Winner Could Be Redistricting Loser – And That’s Keeping The Big Money Away [Daily News]
Race to Replace Weiner Down to the Wire [NYT/538]