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Election Forecasts

  1. Nate Silver’s Forecast (Probably) Overstates Trump’s ChancesFiveThirtyEight isn’t “unskewing” polls. But the site’s forecasting model is based on assumptions that inflate Trump’s prospects.
  2. How to Make Sense of the Election ForecastsBetting markets give Clinton a 72 percent chance of winning, while data journalists have her at 61 percent. Whom should you trust?
  3. early and often
    Nate Silver, Facebook Is Trying To Make You ObsoleteNo need for all those complicated algorithms.