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Displaying all articles tagged:

Fivethirtyeight

  1. vision 2020
    2020’s Top Election Forecasters Are Fighting on TwitterNate Silver and G. Elliott Morris are trying to make sense of 2020 — and each other.
    By Matthew Zeitlin
  2. poll position
    New, Highly Credible Polls Offer Bad News For TrumpTrump is not doing well in states he really needs to win (like Arizona), and his troubles are dragging down Republican Senate candidates.
    By Ed Kilgore
  3. vision 2020
    In the 2020 Race, Uncertainty Is All Trump Has Going for HimMost of the developments that could produce a Trump comeback and win are beyond the president’s control.
    By Ed Kilgore
  4. vision 2020
    Could Bloomberg’s Billions Boost the Odds of a Contested Convention?If multiple candidates steam towards Super Tuesday, Bloomberg’s massive spending on that and later dates could make forming a majority tough.
    By Ed Kilgore
  5. vision 2020
    The Two Des Moines Debates: Was It a Snoozer or an Epic Clash?Depending on which account you consult, the seventh debate was either all about niceness or open conflict.
    By Ed Kilgore
  6. vision 2020
    Is Trump Suddenly Becoming More Popular?The president hit his highest job-approval ratings in more than two years. Here’s what it means.
    By Ed Kilgore
  7. 2018 midterms
    11 Tight Governor’s Races Will Shape America’s Political LandscapeDemocrats will probably make overall gains, but there are an amazing eleven gubernatorial elections that are tossups.
    By Ed Kilgore
  8. 2018 midterms
    FiveThirtyEight’s Forecast Shows Very Tight Battle for the SenateNate Silver’s model gives Republicans a narrow advantage based on a very favorable landscape. But it could go either way.
    By Ed Kilgore
  9. How to Interpret 2018 Polls Without Fooling YourselfThe first rule: “Don’t believe the hype.” The other rules are almost as simple.
    By Ed Kilgore
  10. The Polls Are Swinging to the Democrats AgainThe 2018 Democratic wave: Now you see it, now you don’t, now you see it again.
    By Ed Kilgore
  11. Polling Is Still Working, According to Nate SilverThere’s wide variance in the new pollster ratings, but the upshot is that polling is not broken (yet).
    By Ed Kilgore
  12. Trump Thinks He’s Wildly PopularIn Trump’s world, any adverse information about his standing is “fake,” and even positive polls don’t capture his tremendous standing.
    By Ed Kilgore
  13. The Coming Democratic Wave May Be Smaller Than ExpectedThere are good signs for Republicans that show a Democratic “wave” is no longer certain, but in the end turnout patterns could matter most.
    By Ed Kilgore
  14. Nate Silver’s Forecast (Probably) Overstates Trump’s ChancesFiveThirtyEight isn’t “unskewing” polls. But the site’s forecasting model is based on assumptions that inflate Trump’s prospects.
    By Eric Levitz
  15. mea culpas
    Nate Silver Apologizes for Ferguson Arrest Story“My anecdote was so minor as compared to Ferguson that last night wasn’t the right time for me to share.”
    By Joe Coscarelli
  16. ferguson
    Nate Silver’s Tone-Deaf Burrito Arrest StoryHow not to tweet during a national tragedy.
    By Joe Coscarelli
  17. wonk-stained wretches
    Ezra Klein on Vox’s Launch, Media Condescension, and Competing With WikipediaThe wonk king speaks in-depth about his new explanatory journalism site.
    By Joe Coscarelli
  18. media
    Nate Silver Only Cares About Some of the HatersThe FiveThirtyEight founder explains which on The Daily Show.
    By Joe Coscarelli
  19. blog-stained wretches
    The All-New, Stat-Heavy FiveThirtyEight, by the NumbersNate Silver’s new mega-site is live. Time for first impressions!
    By Joe Coscarelli
  20. blog-stained wretches
    Nate Silver Interview: The New FiveThirtyEightThe site debuts on Monday, but the numbers whiz is only 75 percent ready.
    By Joe Coscarelli
  21. blog-stained wretches
    New Media Venture Spring Is Officially Upon Us The New York Times’ new data-driven project gets a name, and ESPN announces another use for Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.
    By Caroline Bankoff
  22. blog-stained wretches
    The New FiveThirtyEight Launches Very SoonMarch 17.
    By Caroline Bankoff
  23. blog-stained wretches
    Times to Host FiveThirtyEight and Make Nate Silver Regular ContributorA victory for the little guy who is obsessed with numbers!
    By Chris Rovzar
  24. instant politics
    Nate Silver and Jonathan Chait on Early Voting and the Latest Sarah Palin RumorFiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver and ‘The New Republic’ columnist Jonathan Chait discuss the latest Sarah Palin 2012 rumor, how much the African-American vote will matter, and why you should never underestimate the Republican base.