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Midterm Fall Off

  1. 2022 midterms
    Will Young and Minority Voters Save Democrats in 2022?With or without some help from Donald Trump, Democrats need to keep the voters who surged to the polls in 2018 and 2020 engaged.
  2. 2018 midterms
    Will the Kavanaugh Fight Affect the Midterms?All the noise about Kavanaugh could encourage the older white voters who usually vote in midterms to show up, but Democratic enthusiasm remains high.
  3. Democratic Wave May Depend on Millennials Becoming Unusually Motivated to VoteMidterm elections usually show a major dropoff in turnout from young voters. If that happens this fall, the Democratic “wave” could be minimized.
  4. If Democrats Are So Strong, Why Is Their Polling Lead So Weak?More and more observers are noting that House polls for November aren’t showing the sort of Democratic margins we’ve seen in special elections.
  5. There’s a Lot at Stake in the VA Governor’s Race — and Democrats Are WorriedPolls are now very tight in a nasty culture-war campaign. If Republican Ed Gillespie wins, look out in 2018.
  6. Will the Obama Coalition Turn Out in 2018? Virginia Might Offer Some CluesNon-presidential election falloff in the base is a long-standing problem for Democrats that they haven’t clearly solved.
  7. Virginia Democrats Spooked by Fears of a Falloff in TurnoutVirginia Democrats are haunted by Trump’s 2016 win. But they’re also bugged by the turnout falloff that nearly beat them in 2013 and 2014.
  8. Senators From Parties That Don’t Control White House Do Very Well in MidtermsHistory shows the party in the White House struggles to knock off incumbent senators in midterms. It’s one of many cross-cutting factors for 2018.
  9. Democrats’ 2018 Millennial Turnout ChallengeIn 2018 Democrats can take advantage of millennial antipathy toward Donald Trump. But first they must address millennial antipathy toward voting.
  10. Trump Will Help Democrats Solve Their ‘Midterm Falloff’ ProblemDemocrats turn out much more strongly in midterms when there is a GOP president, and the current GOP president should really energize them.