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Polls

  1. early and often
    Will the Polls Be Wrong Again in 2022?A lot of Democrats’ current midterms optimism is based on the assumption that today’s polls are more accurate than they were in 2016 or 2020.
    By Ed Kilgore
  2. the economy
    5 Reasons Voters Underrate the Biden EconomyBy most objective measures, today’s economy isn’t bad. So why do Americans say the president is messing it up?
    By Eric Levitz
  3. black voters
    Why Joe Biden Is Bleeding Black SupportThe president’s failure to pass voting-rights legislation is only a small part of the story.
    By Eric Levitz
  4. politics
    Is Trump Losing His Base? New Poll Suggests Otherwise.Talk about Ron DeSantis displacing Trump is very premature and perhaps another sign of the perpetual underestimation of the 45th president.
    By Ed Kilgore
  5. politics
    Never Mind the Facts. Trump Fans Feel Like a MajorityWhen you’ve been convinced polls are fake and actual elections are rigged, it is easy to confuse visible signs of enthusiasm as a ticket to power.
    By Ed Kilgore
  6. supreme court
    Why Is John Roberts So Popular Among Democrats?The chief justice’s enduring appeal suggests the Supreme Court may be able to gut Roe without great cost to its reputation.
    By Eric Levitz
  7. polls
    Is the Media to Blame for Biden’s Bad Poll Numbers?Or is it “the economy, stupid”?
    By Eric Levitz
  8. racial justice
    Smearing Popularism Does Not Help Black VotersPersuasively rebutting David Shor requires scrutinizing his arguments, not stigmatizing them.
    By Eric Levitz
  9. joe biden
    Can Joe Biden Build Back a Better Approval Rating?The president’s poll numbers are getting ugly.
    By Eric Levitz
  10. polls
    Why a Troubled Polling Industry Whiffed on the California RecallBig 2020 polling errors nationwide were followed by big 2021 polling errors in California — but in the opposite direction.
    By Ed Kilgore
  11. california recall election
    A Defeat of the Newsom Recall Will Feed a New Round of MAGA Conspiracy TheoriesThe recall has lost ground, or maybe never had any. But Newsom’s momentum will be treated by Trump and Republicans as signs of a rigged election.
    By Ed Kilgore
  12. explainer
    Yes, Gavin Newsom Could Lose the California Recall to a RepublicanHow voter complacency, GOP enthusiasm, and Democrats’ risky messaging could hand the California governorship to the GOP in September.
    By Ed Kilgore
  13. politics
    Bad News for Andrew Yang With Two Weeks to GoThe erstwhile front-runner is slipping in polls as negative ads begin.
    By Nia Prater
  14. polls
    Polling the Midterms Is Going to Be Risky BusinessIt’s hard to tell whether 2020 polling errors were about Trump, the pandemic, or something more basic and replicable.
    By Ed Kilgore
  15. democracy
    Trump’s Delegitimization of Democracy Isn’t Wearing OffIt remains unclear when — or if — Republicans will begin to accept electoral defeat again.
    By Ed Kilgore
  16. politics
    Biden’s Steady Popularity Depends on Near-Universal Democratic SupportBiden seems to have figured out how to keep his party happy without mobilizing the opposition. But avoiding midterm losses will still be tricky.
    By Ed Kilgore
  17. polls
    Did Trump Ruin Polling, Too?Pollsters are beginning to wonder if Trump succeeded in discouraging response to polls just as he discouraged voting by mail.
    By Ed Kilgore
  18. 2020 hindsight
    Latinas Drove Trump’s Gains With Hispanic Voters in 2020And two other new insights into the demographic’s rightward shift.
    By Eric Levitz
  19. politics
    What Did We Learn About Political Polling in 2020?With Trump and the pandemic, clear answers have been hard to come by.
    By Ed Kilgore
  20. mike pence
    Is Mike Pence Finished in MAGA-Land?It seems four years of toadying to Trump aren’t enough to overcome his “betrayal” on January 6.
    By Ed Kilgore
  21. the republican party
    Capitol Riot Took Toll on GOP Approval, RegistrationsNearly 140,000 Republican voters quit the party in January, while Democrats opened up a double-digit advantage in approval.
    By Eric Levitz
  22. end times
    Trump’s Job Approval Plunging as He Leaves OfficeTrump’s support is in free fall, but is high enough among Republicans to keep them from dumping him. Biden enters office with a bit of a honeymoon.
    By Ed Kilgore
  23. republican party
    Post-Capitol Hill Riot Polls Reveal Big Problem for GOPEven as Trump’s overall popularity hits all-time lows, a large portion of the Republican base sees him as their champion.
    By Eric Levitz
  24. vision 2020
    David Shor’s Postmortem of the 2020 ElectionDemocrats must accept that Biden won through persuasion, not mobilization — and if the party can’t change the Senate, it will need to change itself.
    By Eric Levitz
  25. poll position
    Should We Stop Paying Attention to Election Polls?Polls are like democracy: bad except as compared to all the alternatives.
    By Ed Kilgore
  26. liveblog
    Trump Team Digs In Against Biden: Post-Election UpdatesRepublicans back president’s call election was stolen, as officials refuse to begin transition process for the president-elect.
    By Intelligencer Staff
  27. vision 2020
    What to Watch for on Election Night: An Hour-by-Hour GuideHere’s when we’re likely to know if we’re looking at another Trump upset, a Biden landslide, or a fight that goes into a turbulent overtime.
    By Ed Kilgore
  28. vision 2020
    New Poll Confirms That High Youth Turnout Would Doom TrumpVoters under 35 back Biden in 41 states; in Texas and Georgia, young voters oppose Trump by roughly 20 points.
    By Eric Levitz
  29. coronavirus stimulus
    Why Trump Should Just Cave to Pelosi on Stimulus DealTrump is losing his advantage over Biden in managing the economy. A last-minute stimulus deal may be the only way to get it back.
    By Ed Kilgore
  30. vision 2020
    Trump Is Running Out of Time to Change These 8 Election X-FactorsExamining the remaining variables, the president is in serious trouble just two weeks ahead of his date with reelection fate.
    By Ed Kilgore
  31. vision 2020
    Men and Women Have Never Been More Politically DividedThe gender gap in the 2020 election will be record-breaking — and could persist long after Trump is gone.
    By Eric Levitz
  32. vision 2020
    2020’s Top Election Forecasters Are Fighting on TwitterNate Silver and G. Elliott Morris are trying to make sense of 2020 — and each other.
    By Matthew Zeitlin
  33. vision 2020
    3 Reasons Catching Coronavirus Could Be Bad for Trump PoliticallyShifting media attention away from COVID and toward Biden’s liabilities just got a lot harder.
    By Eric Levitz
  34. vision 2020
    How Biden and Trump Pollsters See the Politics of the Supreme Court FightIn an ugly race, even a slight unifying effect for Trump’s base or a chance to portray a vulnerable senator as a Trump lackey can make a difference.
    By David Freedlander
  35. vision 2020
    Trump’s Closing Message to Seniors: I Don’t Care If You Die“It affects elderly people,” Trump said of COVID. “It affects virtually nobody.”
    By Eric Levitz
  36. poll position
    New, Highly Credible Polls Offer Bad News For TrumpTrump is not doing well in states he really needs to win (like Arizona), and his troubles are dragging down Republican Senate candidates.
    By Ed Kilgore
  37. vote by mail
    How Democrats’ Reliance on Mail-In Voting Could Help TrumpEven if the Postal Service does a perfect job this November.
    By Eric Levitz
  38. vision 2020
    Polls: Biden Maintains Electoral College Lead, But It’s FragilePolls show a slightly eroding Biden lead nationally, but he’s in great shape unless the margin falls below 3 percent.
    By Ed Kilgore
  39. poll position
    50 Days Out, Biden Doing Better in Polls Than Clinton, Obama, or KerryThe only candidate to overcome as big a disadvantage as Trump faces now is Obama in 2008, and all hell broke loose that fall.
    By Ed Kilgore
  40. vision 2020
    5 Reasons Biden’s Odds of Victory Look Better Than EverThere’s still plenty of time on the clock, but the past 48 hours of news and polling makes Biden’s lead look sturdier than before the RNC.
    By Eric Levitz
  41. vision 2020
    Polls Reveal the Conventions to Be Enormous Wastes of Time and EffortThe basic shape of the race hasn’t changed after the conventions, though a poll from Pennsylvania is good news for Trump
    By Ed Kilgore
  42. vision 2020
    Is Biden’s Lead Shrinking?A favorable CNN poll for Trump is getting a lot of attention, but polling averages and presidential approval ratings tell a different story.
    By Ed Kilgore
  43. 100-person poll
    100 New Yorkers on the New Rules of Outdoor Drinking On a recent Saturday, we asked 100 people at Brooklyn’s McCarren Park about porta-potties, open container laws, and other 2020 etiquette.
    By Brock Colyar
  44. vision 2020
    Why 2020 Is Not Just Another 2016Democrats can be forgiven for a superstitious fear of a Trump comeback. But the real threat may not emerge until the polls close.
    By Ed Kilgore
  45. democracy
    The Coronavirus Crisis Is Proving That Democracy WorksThe president is bleeding support in counties hit hard by COVID-19, as previously pro-Trump voters rationally respond to evidence of his failures.
    By Eric Levitz
  46. vision 2020
    Trump Believes That He Is Losing Because He Hasn’t Been Racist EnoughOn the one hand, all available evidence suggests this is wrong. On the other hand, Tucker Carlson suggests it is right.
    By Eric Levitz
  47. vision 2020
    Democrats Are on Pace for a Down-Ballot BlowoutThe party’s lead in the congressional generic ballot is higher now than it was in 2018.
    By Eric Levitz
  48. vision 2020
    Trump Is Now the 2020 UnderdogThe incumbent’s path to reelection is decidedly narrowing.
    By Ed Kilgore
  49. vision 2020
    Why Do Trump Supporters Act Like His Reelection Is Certain?For reasons varying from a Trumpian infatuation with “winning” to thoughts of contesting a loss, many Republicans act as though it’s a done deal.
    By Ed Kilgore
  50. vision 2020
    Why Biden Needs to Win BigGiven Trump’s Electoral College advantage and the need to win Senate races, Biden must have as big a national popular vote lead as he can get.
    By Ed Kilgore
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