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Polls

  1. joe biden
    Can Joe Biden Build Back a Better Approval Rating?The president’s poll numbers are getting ugly.
    By Eric Levitz
  2. polls
    Why a Troubled Polling Industry Whiffed on the California RecallBig 2020 polling errors nationwide were followed by big 2021 polling errors in California — but in the opposite direction.
    By Ed Kilgore
  3. california recall election
    A Defeat of the Newsom Recall Will Feed a New Round of MAGA Conspiracy TheoriesThe recall has lost ground, or maybe never had any. But Newsom’s momentum will be treated by Trump and Republicans as signs of a rigged election.
    By Ed Kilgore
  4. explainer
    Yes, Gavin Newsom Could Lose the California Recall to a RepublicanHow voter complacency, GOP enthusiasm, and Democrats’ risky messaging could hand the California governorship to the GOP in September.
    By Ed Kilgore
  5. politics
    Bad News for Andrew Yang With Two Weeks to GoThe erstwhile front-runner is slipping in polls as negative ads begin.
    By Nia Prater
  6. polls
    Polling the Midterms Is Going to Be Risky BusinessIt’s hard to tell whether 2020 polling errors were about Trump, the pandemic, or something more basic and replicable.
    By Ed Kilgore
  7. democracy
    Trump’s Delegitimization of Democracy Isn’t Wearing OffIt remains unclear when — or if — Republicans will begin to accept electoral defeat again.
    By Ed Kilgore
  8. politics
    Biden’s Steady Popularity Depends on Near-Universal Democratic SupportBiden seems to have figured out how to keep his party happy without mobilizing the opposition. But avoiding midterm losses will still be tricky.
    By Ed Kilgore
  9. polls
    Did Trump Ruin Polling, Too?Pollsters are beginning to wonder if Trump succeeded in discouraging response to polls just as he discouraged voting by mail.
    By Ed Kilgore
  10. 2020 hindsight
    Latinas Drove Trump’s Gains With Hispanic Voters in 2020And two other new insights into the demographic’s rightward shift.
    By Eric Levitz
  11. politics
    What Did We Learn About Political Polling in 2020?With Trump and the pandemic, clear answers have been hard to come by.
    By Ed Kilgore
  12. mike pence
    Is Mike Pence Finished in MAGA-Land?It seems four years of toadying to Trump aren’t enough to overcome his “betrayal” on January 6.
    By Ed Kilgore
  13. the republican party
    Capitol Riot Took Toll on GOP Approval, RegistrationsNearly 140,000 Republican voters quit the party in January, while Democrats opened up a double-digit advantage in approval.
    By Eric Levitz
  14. end times
    Trump’s Job Approval Plunging as He Leaves OfficeTrump’s support is in free fall, but is high enough among Republicans to keep them from dumping him. Biden enters office with a bit of a honeymoon.
    By Ed Kilgore
  15. republican party
    Post-Capitol Hill Riot Polls Reveal Big Problem for GOPEven as Trump’s overall popularity hits all-time lows, a large portion of the Republican base sees him as their champion.
    By Eric Levitz
  16. vision 2020
    David Shor’s Postmortem of the 2020 ElectionDemocrats must accept that Biden won through persuasion, not mobilization — and if the party can’t change the Senate, it will need to change itself.
    By Eric Levitz
  17. poll position
    Should We Stop Paying Attention to Election Polls?Polls are like democracy: bad except as compared to all the alternatives.
    By Ed Kilgore
  18. liveblog
    Trump Team Digs In Against Biden: Post-Election UpdatesRepublicans back president’s call election was stolen, as officials refuse to begin transition process for the president-elect.
    By Intelligencer Staff
  19. vision 2020
    What to Watch for on Election Night: An Hour-by-Hour GuideHere’s when we’re likely to know if we’re looking at another Trump upset, a Biden landslide, or a fight that goes into a turbulent overtime.
    By Ed Kilgore
  20. vision 2020
    New Poll Confirms That High Youth Turnout Would Doom TrumpVoters under 35 back Biden in 41 states; in Texas and Georgia, young voters oppose Trump by roughly 20 points.
    By Eric Levitz
  21. coronavirus stimulus
    Why Trump Should Just Cave to Pelosi on Stimulus DealTrump is losing his advantage over Biden in managing the economy. A last-minute stimulus deal may be the only way to get it back.
    By Ed Kilgore
  22. vision 2020
    Trump Is Running Out of Time to Change These 8 Election X-FactorsExamining the remaining variables, the president is in serious trouble just two weeks ahead of his date with reelection fate.
    By Ed Kilgore
  23. vision 2020
    Men and Women Have Never Been More Politically DividedThe gender gap in the 2020 election will be record-breaking — and could persist long after Trump is gone.
    By Eric Levitz
  24. vision 2020
    2020’s Top Election Forecasters Are Fighting on TwitterNate Silver and G. Elliott Morris are trying to make sense of 2020 — and each other.
    By Matthew Zeitlin
  25. vision 2020
    3 Reasons Catching Coronavirus Could Be Bad for Trump PoliticallyShifting media attention away from COVID and toward Biden’s liabilities just got a lot harder.
    By Eric Levitz
  26. vision 2020
    How Biden and Trump Pollsters See the Politics of the Supreme Court FightIn an ugly race, even a slight unifying effect for Trump’s base or a chance to portray a vulnerable senator as a Trump lackey can make a difference.
    By David Freedlander
  27. vision 2020
    Trump’s Closing Message to Seniors: I Don’t Care If You Die“It affects elderly people,” Trump said of COVID. “It affects virtually nobody.”
    By Eric Levitz
  28. poll position
    New, Highly Credible Polls Offer Bad News For TrumpTrump is not doing well in states he really needs to win (like Arizona), and his troubles are dragging down Republican Senate candidates.
    By Ed Kilgore
  29. vote by mail
    How Democrats’ Reliance on Mail-In Voting Could Help TrumpEven if the Postal Service does a perfect job this November.
    By Eric Levitz
  30. vision 2020
    Polls: Biden Maintains Electoral College Lead, But It’s FragilePolls show a slightly eroding Biden lead nationally, but he’s in great shape unless the margin falls below 3 percent.
    By Ed Kilgore
  31. poll position
    50 Days Out, Biden Doing Better in Polls Than Clinton, Obama, or KerryThe only candidate to overcome as big a disadvantage as Trump faces now is Obama in 2008, and all hell broke loose that fall.
    By Ed Kilgore
  32. vision 2020
    5 Reasons Biden’s Odds of Victory Look Better Than EverThere’s still plenty of time on the clock, but the past 48 hours of news and polling makes Biden’s lead look sturdier than before the RNC.
    By Eric Levitz
  33. vision 2020
    Polls Reveal the Conventions to Be Enormous Wastes of Time and EffortThe basic shape of the race hasn’t changed after the conventions, though a poll from Pennsylvania is good news for Trump
    By Ed Kilgore
  34. vision 2020
    Is Biden’s Lead Shrinking?A favorable CNN poll for Trump is getting a lot of attention, but polling averages and presidential approval ratings tell a different story.
    By Ed Kilgore
  35. 100-person poll
    100 New Yorkers on the New Rules of Outdoor Drinking On a recent Saturday, we asked 100 people at Brooklyn’s McCarren Park about porta-potties, open container laws, and other 2020 etiquette.
    By Brock Colyar
  36. vision 2020
    Why 2020 Is Not Just Another 2016Democrats can be forgiven for a superstitious fear of a Trump comeback. But the real threat may not emerge until the polls close.
    By Ed Kilgore
  37. democracy
    The Coronavirus Crisis Is Proving That Democracy WorksThe president is bleeding support in counties hit hard by COVID-19, as previously pro-Trump voters rationally respond to evidence of his failures.
    By Eric Levitz
  38. vision 2020
    Trump Believes That He Is Losing Because He Hasn’t Been Racist EnoughOn the one hand, all available evidence suggests this is wrong. On the other hand, Tucker Carlson suggests it is right.
    By Eric Levitz
  39. vision 2020
    Democrats Are on Pace for a Down-Ballot BlowoutThe party’s lead in the congressional generic ballot is higher now than it was in 2018.
    By Eric Levitz
  40. vision 2020
    Trump Is Now the 2020 UnderdogThe incumbent’s path to reelection is decidedly narrowing.
    By Ed Kilgore
  41. vision 2020
    Why Do Trump Supporters Act Like His Reelection Is Certain?For reasons varying from a Trumpian infatuation with “winning” to thoughts of contesting a loss, many Republicans act as though it’s a done deal.
    By Ed Kilgore
  42. vision 2020
    Why Biden Needs to Win BigGiven Trump’s Electoral College advantage and the need to win Senate races, Biden must have as big a national popular vote lead as he can get.
    By Ed Kilgore
  43. vision 2020
    No One Group of Voters Will Determine Trump’s FateWinning or losing a voter group is often less important than the margins, where a vote’s a vote–except in the Electoral College.
    By Ed Kilgore
  44. vision 2020
    Trump Campaign Puts President’s Psychological Needs Above His Political OnesThe president’s team recently bought ad time in D.C. so Trump could hear positive things about himself on TV.
    By Eric Levitz
  45. vision 2020
    2020 Election Polls Look Solid, But Not PerfectPrimary polls were about as accurate as in 2016, though they failed to anticipate the Biden surge. November will be a bigger test for pollsters.
    By Ed Kilgore
  46. vision 2020
    Trump’s Odds of Winning Reelection Are Higher Than You ThinkWeeks into a historic recession, the president’s approval rating remains higher than it’s been for most of his tenure.
    By Eric Levitz
  47. vision 2020
    The State of the Presidential Race, Six Months Before Election DayRecent presidential elections show the eventual winner ahead at this point, except for Trump himself in 2016.
    By Ed Kilgore
  48. vision 2020
    Why Kavanaugh Is the Focus of Republican Attacks on BidenThe GOP would prefer to compare Biden to Kavanaugh, a party-unifying figure, rather than Trump himself, accused of far more misconduct.
    By Ed Kilgore
  49. vision 2020
    Trump Blasts ‘Fake Polling’ (Unless It Makes Him Look Good)You have to wonder if the president is attacking adverse polls in preparation for attacking adverse election results.
    By Ed Kilgore
  50. coronavirus
    Most Americans Want Those Protesting Stay-at-Home Orders to Stay at HomeDemocrats, Republicans, and independents are aligned in their opposition to protesters agitating for a swift reopening of the economy.
    By Adam K. Raymond
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