Displaying all articles tagged:

Vision 2020

  1. politics
    No, Gavin Newsom Isn’t Going to Sprint to the White HouseThe California governor deserves a lot of credit for crushing the recall. But he wouldn’t have been in such a jam without his own perceived arrogance.
  2. polls
    Why a Troubled Polling Industry Whiffed on the California RecallBig 2020 polling errors nationwide were followed by big 2021 polling errors in California — but in the opposite direction.
  3. politics
    Democrats Won the California Recall, But There Are Warning Signs for MidtermsNewsom matched Biden’s 2020 performance, but their party needs to do even better to claw back desperately needed House seats.
  4. california recall election
    A Defeat of the Newsom Recall Will Feed a New Round of MAGA Conspiracy TheoriesThe recall has lost ground, or maybe never had any. But Newsom’s momentum will be treated by Trump and Republicans as signs of a rigged election.
  5. past is prologue
    Clinton and Biden Bookend the Era of the Swing VoterDifferences in how the two men approached campaigning and governing, despite their similar ideologies, reflect a massive shift in the U.S. electorate.
  6. 2022 midterms
    Raffensperger Struggles to Get Back His MAGA Street CredUnlike Brian Kemp, Raffensperger doesn’t have the political capital or luck in opponents to survive a Trumpian purge with right-wing posturing.
  7. 2022 midterms
    Why 2022 Won’t Be Another 1994 Republican Tidal WaveLindsey Graham’s prediction of an impending red wave ignores several key factors behind the GOP’s historic gains in Bill Clinton’s first midterm.
  8. covid-19 vaccine
    What If Republicans Were Anti-Lockdown, Anti-Mask, and Pro-Vaxx?Tommy Tuberville suggests the best way to erode vaccine hesitancy is to give Trump credit for those shots in the arm. That may be sad but true.
  9. vision 2024
    Has Trump Spoiled the GOP for More Rational Leaders?If Trump doesn’t run in 2024, other Republican presidential contenders will have a hard time rivaling his unique demagogic appeal.
  10. election coup
    Did Trump Really Claim Victory on Election Night on a Whim?The idea of declaring victory based only on the in-person vote was telegraphed for months. Now, Trump insiders claim it was somehow impulsive.
  11. polarization
    We Are Two Nations, DivisibleWhile Americans claim to want bipartisanship, our differences are clearly real and deep-seated. Embracing this is far healthier than denying it.
  12. vision 2020
    New Data Shows How Biden Won, Where Trump Gained in 2020A Pew analysis shows that Biden’s suburban boom was real, the gender gap shrank, and Trump’s boost among Latinos was larger than previously known.
  13. 2022 midterms
    Will Ranked-Choice Voting Help or Hurt Lisa Murkowski?The veteran maverick Republican will have to fight off a Trump-endorsed conservative and a Democrat-backed independent if she runs for a fourth term.
  14. voting rights
    Justice Department Sues to Stop Georgia Voting LawWith Republicans filibustering voting-rights legislation in Congress, the Justice Department is using litigation to go after Georgia’s notorious law.
  15. 2022 midterms
    Will Young and Minority Voters Save Democrats in 2022?With or without some help from Donald Trump, Democrats need to keep the voters who surged to the polls in 2018 and 2020 engaged.
  16. donald trump
    Could Trump Become Speaker of the House?This bizarre scenario is technically possible, but fantasies about Trump returning to the White House via the Speakership are extremely far-fetched.
  17. 2021 elections
    Virginia Is in for a Close, Expensive Governor’s RaceTerry McAuliffe has an edge, as Virginia has been trending blue. But the “businessman outsider” Glenn Youngkin has the money to keep it tight.
  18. maga
    Election ‘Audit’ Fever Spreads Beyond ArizonaFrom New Hampshire to Wisconsin and even California, recounts are being used to supposedly vindicate Trump and justify voter suppression.
  19. politics
    Is Presidential Popularity Now All About Partisanship?Biden’s job-approval ratings are even steadier than Trump’s, suggesting a president’s party may be more important than his actions. It’s a scary idea.
  20. republicans
    Georgia Republicans See Disastrous Election Cycle As Something to Brag AboutIn their deluded minds, they believe losing Georgia to Biden and the Senate to Democrats were victories stolen by their own secretary of state.
  21. polls
    Polling the Midterms Is Going to Be Risky BusinessIt’s hard to tell whether 2020 polling errors were about Trump, the pandemic, or something more basic and replicable.
  22. maga
    Trump’s GOP Enemies Try 3 Strategies for SurvivalPaul Ryan, Mitt Romney, and Brian Kemp exhibit different ways Republican politicians are dealing with the Boss’s disdain.
  23. democracy
    Trump’s Delegitimization of Democracy Isn’t Wearing OffIt remains unclear when — or if — Republicans will begin to accept electoral defeat again.
  24. voting by mail
    Making Voting More Convenient May Help Democrats After AllCensus data shows that Democratic-leaning younger voters benefited from more flexible voting arrangements in 2020.
  25. 2022 midterm
    Loeffler Begs for Trump’s Attention by Attacking RaffenspergerThe former senator has called for a ridiculous “investigation” of the GOP secretary of state who wouldn’t back Trump’s election coup.
  26. democrats
    Democrats Are Shooting for the Moon in 2021, and That’s OkayThe usual choice between getting things done and holding on to power is no choice at all for Democrats right now.
  27. 2022 mdterms
    A Historical Reminder: Iron Political Trends Sometimes Turn to DustThere’s only so much the last election can tell you.
  28. vision 2020
    Arizona Republicans Want to Keep Recounting 2020 Vote Until Trump WinsA bizarre post-postelection audit ordered by the Arizona state senate and conducted by a MAGA-adjacent firm shows 2020 may never end for Trump fans.
  29. politics
    The Fateful Question of How Latinos Vote Going ForwardTrump and his party over-performed with Latino voters in 2020. It’s important for both parties to figure whether that was a fluke or a trend.
  30. georgia election law
    Trump Says Georgia Election Law Is ‘Far Too Weak’The former president’s message to Republicans is that using election laws to screw over the opposition isn’t just acceptable – it’s mandatory.
  31. political strategy
    Should Democrats Resurrect the 50-State Strategy?Long-shot lower-level candidates may help turn out the vote for up-ticket races, but the value of that remains limited.
  32. georgia election law
    Can Suppressing Votes Save Brian Kemp?Kemp is using Georgia’s new election law to heal a breach with Trump-loving conservatives but so far has drawn only a gadfly primary opponent.
  33. vision 2020
    Yes, Geographical Polarization Was a Big Deal in 2016 and 2020New data shows that the suburban swings to the left and rural swings to the right are consistent with the intuitive trends in the last two elections.
  34. extremism
    McConnell Howls About Court-packing Just As Pelosi Nixes ItIt’s a good example of how smears of the opposing party can run abruptly into countervailing reality.
  35. politics
    Biden’s Steady Popularity Depends on Near-Universal Democratic SupportBiden seems to have figured out how to keep his party happy without mobilizing the opposition. But avoiding midterm losses will still be tricky.
  36. polls
    Did Trump Ruin Polling, Too?Pollsters are beginning to wonder if Trump succeeded in discouraging response to polls just as he discouraged voting by mail.
  37. 2024 presidential election
    Nikki Haley Says She’ll Back Trump If He Runs in 2024The GOP’s shrewdest presidential hopeful has quickly abandoned her earlier criticism of Trump and gotten back in line.
  38. politics
    Iowa and New Hampshire Won’t Be Knocked Out of FirstDespite constant complaints, the difficulty of changing the primary and caucus calendar will likely keep the early states in place for 2024.
  39. republicans
    Trump and Rubio, Best of FrenemiesRubio seems as tormented as ever by the man who rolled over him five years ago.
  40. capitol riot
    It’s Time to Fix the Law That Led to the Capitol RiotAn obscure 1887 law intended to resolve disputed presidential elections instead gave Trump and his supporters one last chance to overturn the results.
  41. georgia voting law
    Georgia Republicans Working Hard to Sabotage a 2022 ComebackGeorgia’s GOP could be upbeat heading toward the midterms. But the voting-law debacle and a Trump purge could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
  42. politics
    Raffensperger’s Support for Georgia’s Voter-Suppression Law Won’t Save HimGeorgia’s secretary of state blasphemed Trump, and that’s all that matters to his fellow Republicans.
  43. republican party
    Conservative George W. Bush Is Now Too Liberal for His PartyGeorge W. and Jeb Bush once defined not just Republicanism, but movement conservatism. Both have changed decisively after Trump.
  44. gridlock
    Today’s Gridlock Is Like a 19th-Century NightmareWe’re experiencing the instability and close partisan competition of the Gilded Age along with the big differences and fury of the 1850s.
  45. 2020 hindsight
    David Shor on Why Trump Was Good for the GOP — and How Dems Can Win in 2022The data scientist shares his latest theories on why Democrats lost Hispanic support in 2020 and what the party must do to avoid disaster in 2022.
  46. mike pence
    Is Mike Pence Finished in MAGA-Land?It seems four years of toadying to Trump aren’t enough to overcome his “betrayal” on January 6.
  47. cpac
    Trump’s Future Agenda: Suppress the Vote and Purge the RINOsHis speech at CPAC didn’t promise a candidacy in 2024, but did suggest he’d fight anyone he does not endorse.
  48. voting rights
    Republicans Return to Old Voter-Suppression PlaybookTrump shifted the focus to phony vote-by-mail fraud claims, but Republicans tried to limit all kinds of voting pre-2020 — and they’re at it again.
  49. republican party
    Agonized Georgia Republicans Long for Herschel Walker to Run for SenateA battered and deeply divided state party bent on suppressing Black votes could use a Trump-friendly Black sports legend.
  50. 2020 elections
    Straight-Ticket Voting Took Another Big Leap in 2020The days of congressional candidates running far ahead of the national ticket are all but over.
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