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2018 Midterms
2022 midterms
Feb. 6, 2022
Democrats Need More Than Redistricting Wins in 2022 There’s been great news for Democrats on the redistricting front. But actually holding the House in the midterms will still be very tough.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Jan. 24, 2022
Democrats Need Republican Mistakes to Hang On to the Senate A normal midterm swing could help Republicans sweep close Senate races. But Trump and intraparty problems could help Democrats keep control.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Jan. 19, 2022
Biden’s Approval Rating Is Low But Still Higher Than Trump’s With better skill than he’s shown lately and a bit of luck, Biden can mitigate 2022 midterm losses and bounce back in 2024.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Dec. 21, 2021
California May Help Democrats Curb 2022 Losses The results of the Golden State’s redistricting process could endanger GOP incumbents, offsetting Democrats’ expected U.S. House losses.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Dec. 2, 2021
Trump Frets About Ads Attacking J.D. Vance for Attacking Him The former president’s involvement in 2022 midterm campaigns isn’t about his party — it’s strictly about him.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Dec. 1, 2021
Stacey Abrams Announces 2022 Run for Governor of Georgia Abrams will have a united Democratic Party facing Trump-divided Republicans, and perhaps a grudge rematch with voter suppressor Brian Kemp.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Nov. 15, 2021
Beto O’Rourke Is Running for Governor in Texas The former Democratic phenom must overcome past questions to challenge a strong but vulnerable Republican incumbent in a red state turning purple.
By Ed Kilgore
California Recall Candidate Served Legal Papers During Debate Republican gubernatorial replacement candidate John Cox is known for attention-grabbing gimmicks, like a rented grizzly, but this one wasn’t his idea.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
July 27, 2021
Why 2022 Won’t Be Another 1994 Republican Tidal Wave Lindsey Graham’s prediction of an impending red wave ignores several key factors behind the GOP’s historic gains in Bill Clinton’s first midterm.
By Ed Kilgore
George P. Is Trump’s Favorite Bush, but Not His Favorite Texas AG Candidate George P. brags that he’s the only Bush the 45th president enjoys. Trump still backed his rival, MAGA loyalist Ken Paxton, in the Texas AG race.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
June 30, 2021
New Data Shows How Biden Won, Where Trump Gained in 2020 A Pew analysis shows that Biden’s suburban boom was real, the gender gap shrank, and Trump’s boost among Latinos was larger than previously known.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
June 22, 2021
Will Young and Minority Voters Save Democrats in 2022? With or without some help from Donald Trump, Democrats need to keep the voters who surged to the polls in 2018 and 2020 engaged.
By Ed Kilgore
Polling the Midterms Is Going to Be Risky Business It’s hard to tell whether 2020 polling errors were about Trump, the pandemic, or something more basic and replicable.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Apr. 21, 2021
After the Voting Wars, Who’s Likely to Turn Out in 2022? The net impact of laws to suppress or expand voting rights is unclear, and will compete with many factors affecting the level and shape of turnout.
By Ed Kilgore
gavin newsom recall
Apr. 14, 2021
Struggling California Republicans Gamble on Newsom Recall These are grim times for the GOP in the Golden State. So they are calculating that a long-shot recall drive may be their best best for a win.
By Ed Kilgore
2022 midterms
Mar. 31, 2021
Democrats Have a Good Chance of Holding the Senate in 2022 With the Judiciary on the line, the Senate landscape favors Democrats in the next midterms.
By Ed Kilgore
What Joe Biden and George W. Bush Have in Common Comparing the early performances of our most-recent presidents.
By Ed Kilgore
2020 elections
Dec. 1, 2020
Republicans Claw Back 4 California Congressional Seats It wasn’t a good election for California Republicans otherwise, but they did regain ground in the U.S. House.
By Ed Kilgore
2020 elections
Nov. 4, 2020
Republicans Make Shocking Gains in the House Democrats were expected to win several seats, but will instead lose a handful. Nancy Pelosi now faces a potential revolt.
By Ed Kilgore
The Perpetually Frustrated Dream of the South Turning Blue There remain signs of optimism for long-suffering southern Democrats, but 2020 was in most respects bitterly disappointing.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Oct. 20, 2020
GOP Hopes That Amy Coney Barrett Would Fire Up the Base Fizzled It’s unclear that killing Garland’s confirmation or forcing Kavanaugh’s did electoral magic for the GOP. The non-fight over Barrett sure won’t.
By Ed Kilgore
poll position
Oct. 17, 2020
Two Republicans Could Blow Up Democrats’ Shot at the Senate How the GOP may just pull off flipping seats in states as different as Alabama and Michigan.
By Ed Kilgore
supreme court
Oct. 14, 2020
Why the Barrett Hearings Are Generating Less Outrage Than Kavanaugh’s Unlike Trump’s last Supreme Court pick, Barrett is not embroiled in scandal — but that’s not the only reason the temperature is lower this time.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
July 14, 2020
Joe Biden Needs to Win Big to Avoid a Contested Election If Donald Trump is ahead on Election Night even with a majority of the vote uncounted, look out!
By Ed Kilgore
2020 elections
July 7, 2020
Ranks of Republican Women in Senate Could Be Decimated in November As many as four of the GOP’s nine women in the Senate could lose, and a fifth is a prospect for a party switch.
By Ed Kilgore
John Lewis’s Lifelong Struggle for Voting Rights Isn’t Over Once it looked like Obama’s election represented the culmination of John Lewis’s career. A new documentary shows battles for old causes persist.
By Ed Kilgore
supreme court
July 1, 2020
Trump Wants Another Supreme Court Nomination Fight Before November Trump thinks a confirmation battle could excite his base, but it would work both ways, particularly among Democrats who remember Merrick Garland.
By Ed Kilgore
2020 elections
June 23, 2020
On a Big Primary Night, It’s Time to — Wait Get used to it, media. With voting by mail rising, knowing the results of an election an hour after the polls close is over.
By Ed Kilgore
2020 elections
May 10, 2020
If Stacey Abrams Doesn’t Become Veep, a 2022 Rematch With Kemp Looks Promising If all else fails, the rising Democratic star from Georgia could hold Georgia’s governor accountable for his perilous COVID-19 policies.
By Ed Kilgore
2020 elections
May 6, 2020
Six Months From the Election, Pelosi’s Gavel Seems Secure With limited presidential momentum, a deficit in open seats, and a gap in the generic ballot, Republicans won’t take the House until at least 2022.
By Ed Kilgore
Why Kavanaugh Is the Focus of Republican Attacks on Biden The GOP would prefer to compare Biden to Kavanaugh, a party-unifying figure, rather than Trump himself, accused of far more misconduct.
By Ed Kilgore
coronavirus
Apr. 29, 2020
80 Percent of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Georgia Are African-American Amid CDC evidence that black Georgians are disproportionately affected by COVID-19, Kemp’s business reopenings could make things much worse.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Apr. 28, 2020
There’s Nothing Wrong With Stacey Abrams’s Campaign to Be Vice-President Team Biden started the conversation about Abrams as a possible veep. If she’s ready for that tough gig, she should continue to make her case.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Apr. 15, 2020
As Coronavirus Rages, Republicans Still Don’t Have a Health-Care Plan In a pandemic, Republican fecklessness on health care is likely to be a bigger advantage for Democrats than it was in the 2018 midterms.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Apr. 14, 2020
The Wisconsin Results Should Worry Republicans Everywhere Democrats’ judicial landslide, despite Republican voter suppression, is another sign all the anticipatory gloating of Trump supporters was premature.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Mar. 30, 2020
Odds of a Contested November Election Are on the Rise If COVID-19 continues to overshadow the general election, it could be held under circumstances where one party or the other won’t accept the results.
By Ed Kilgore
Will Pete and Amy’s Abandoned Voters Move to Biden? It depends on if you believe the “tracks” theory or the “lanes” theory of voter behavior.
By Ed Kilgore
election reform
Feb. 15, 2020
Sometimes Slow Election Results Are Good for Democracy We have no birthright to instant election results, particularly when a slow count reflects greater access to the ballot.
By Ed Kilgore
immigration
Jan. 16, 2020
New Migrant Caravan Too Far From U.S. Election to Be an Emergency It’s like the caravan of Fall 2018, but without the same immediate electoral stakes for Republicans.
By Zak Cheney-Rice
Scott Brown and a Perilous Decade For Progressivism In January 2010 all the excitement associated with Obama’s election began to dissipate after a special election in Massachusetts.
By Ed Kilgore
‘Checks and Balances’ Voters Could Reelect Trump Voters who oscillate between the two parties may produce the very abuses of power they claim to fear.
By Ed Kilgore
2020 elections
Sept. 26, 2019
Hunter Becomes the Hunted The embattled California Republican now faces Darrell Issa’s giant bankroll, in addition to federal prosecutors who indicted him for corruption.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Sept. 16, 2019
Trump Relies on Maduro-Bashing to Win Florida Next Year Trump’s attacks on Maduro are key to winning Florida’s Latino immigrants and boosting his advantage among Cuban-Americans despite his other policies.
By Ed Kilgore
conspiracy theories
Sept. 13, 2019
McCarthy Still Repeating Bogus Conspiracy Theories About Midterm-Election Theft House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy is still whitewashing his party’s terrible performance in his home state with lurid tales unsupported by evidence.
By Ed Kilgore
2020 elections
Aug. 29, 2019
Darrell Issa Plots Comeback by Taking Out Duncan Hunter Issa’s wealth and fame makes him a formidable intraparty opponent for Hunter, who goes on trial in January on lurid corruption charges.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Aug. 15, 2019
Primary Voters Are Focused on Beating Trump, So the Candidates Are, Too Yes, Democratic presidential candidates are talking a lot about Trump. But that’s mostly because they are auditioning to take him down.
By Ed Kilgore
stacey abrams
Aug. 13, 2019
Abrams Not Running for President but Will Fight Voter Suppression Nationally She is keeping her veep options open and may still run for governor of Georgia in 2022.
By Ed Kilgore
orange county
Aug. 7, 2019
Republicans Are Now Outnumbered in Conservative Bastion of Orange County Ronald Reagan once called Orange County, California, “where all good Republicans go to die.” Now demographics and Trump are turning it blue.
By Ed Kilgore
Democrats Made Big Gains With ‘Anti-Immigration’ Voters in 2018: Study A new analysis of the midterm electorate sheds light on what happened last fall – and what to expect in 2020.
By Eric Levitz
vision 2020
July 31, 2019
Maybe Economic Prosperity Isn’t Trump’s Best Friend After All Fresh evidence from 2018 suggests people experiencing a stronger economy may lean Democratic, which could be why Trump is doubling down on racism.
By Ed Kilgore
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