Displaying all articles tagged:
Fivethirtyeight
how everything works
May 5, 2021
16 Podcasters on the Hardest Episodes They Have Ever Produced Everything that can go wrong on shows like The Daily , Reply All , and Louder Than a Riot before it goes right.
By Becca James
vision 2020
Oct. 15, 2020
2020’s Top Election Forecasters Are Fighting on Twitter Nate Silver and G. Elliott Morris are trying to make sense of 2020 — and each other.
By Matthew Zeitlin
poll position
Sept. 18, 2020
New, Highly Credible Polls Offer Bad News For Trump Trump is not doing well in states he really needs to win (like Arizona), and his troubles are dragging down Republican Senate candidates.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Aug. 13, 2020
In the 2020 Race, Uncertainty Is All Trump Has Going for Him Most of the developments that could produce a Trump comeback and win are beyond the president’s control.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Jan. 24, 2020
Could Bloomberg’s Billions Boost the Odds of a Contested Convention? If multiple candidates steam towards Super Tuesday, Bloomberg’s massive spending on that and later dates could make forming a majority tough.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Jan. 15, 2020
The Two Des Moines Debates: Was It a Snoozer or an Epic Clash? Depending on which account you consult, the seventh debate was either all about niceness or open conflict.
By Ed Kilgore
Is Trump Suddenly Becoming More Popular? The president hit his highest job-approval ratings in more than two years. Here’s what it means.
By Ed Kilgore
2018 midterms
Oct. 21, 2018
11 Tight Governor’s Races Will Shape America’s Political Landscape Democrats will probably make overall gains, but there are an amazing eleven gubernatorial elections that are tossups.
By Ed Kilgore
2018 midterms
Sept. 12, 2018
FiveThirtyEight’s Forecast Shows Very Tight Battle for the Senate Nate Silver’s model gives Republicans a narrow advantage based on a very favorable landscape. But it could go either way.
By Ed Kilgore
How to Interpret 2018 Polls Without Fooling Yourself The first rule: “Don’t believe the hype.” The other rules are almost as simple.
By Ed Kilgore
The Polls Are Swinging to the Democrats Again The 2018 Democratic wave: Now you see it, now you don’t, now you see it again.
By Ed Kilgore
Polling Is Still Working, According to Nate Silver There’s wide variance in the new pollster ratings, but the upshot is that polling is not broken (yet).
By Ed Kilgore
Trump Thinks He’s Wildly Popular In Trump’s world, any adverse information about his standing is “fake,” and even positive polls don’t capture his tremendous standing.
By Ed Kilgore
The Coming Democratic Wave May Be Smaller Than Expected There are good signs for Republicans that show a Democratic “wave” is no longer certain, but in the end turnout patterns could matter most.
By Ed Kilgore
Nate Silver’s Forecast (Probably) Overstates Trump’s Chances FiveThirtyEight isn’t “unskewing” polls. But the site’s forecasting model is based on assumptions that inflate Trump’s prospects.
By Eric Levitz
Nate Silver Apologizes for Ferguson Arrest Story “My anecdote was so minor as compared to Ferguson that last night wasn’t the right time for me to share.”
By Joe Coscarelli
wonk-stained wretches
Apr. 10, 2014
By Joe Coscarelli
Nate Silver Only Cares About Some of the Haters The FiveThirtyEight founder explains which on The Daily Show .
By Joe Coscarelli
blog-stained wretches
Mar. 17, 2014
The All-New, Stat-Heavy FiveThirtyEight, by the Numbers Nate Silver’s new mega-site is live. Time for first impressions!
By Joe Coscarelli
blog-stained wretches
Mar. 13, 2014
Nate Silver Interview: The New FiveThirtyEight The site debuts on Monday, but the numbers whiz is only 75 percent ready.
By Joe Coscarelli
blog-stained wretches
Mar. 10, 2014
New Media Venture Spring Is Officially Upon Us The New York Times ’ new data-driven project gets a name, and ESPN announces another use for Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.
By Caroline Bankoff
blog-stained wretches
Mar. 8, 2014
By Caroline Bankoff
blog-stained wretches
June 3, 2010
By Chris Rovzar
instant politics
Oct. 27, 2008
Nate Silver and Jonathan Chait on Early Voting and the Latest Sarah Palin Rumor FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver and ‘The New Republic’ columnist Jonathan Chait discuss the latest Sarah Palin 2012 rumor, how much the African-American vote will matter, and why you should never underestimate the Republican base.