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Incumbency

  1. vision 2020
    In the 2020 Race, Uncertainty Is All Trump Has Going for HimMost of the developments that could produce a Trump comeback and win are beyond the president’s control.
    By Ed Kilgore
  2. vision 2020
    Trump’s Plan: Run As Outsider Against ‘Incumbent’ Non-President BidenTrump of all people cannot overcome his incessant claims of presidential greatness and campaign for reelection as some sort of insurgent.
    By Ed Kilgore
  3. vision 2020
    Trump Is Now the 2020 UnderdogThe incumbent’s path to reelection is decidedly narrowing.
    By Ed Kilgore
  4. vision 2020
    The Scary Proposition That Trump Is Gradually Becoming More PopularYes, Trump is fairly close to his highest job approval numbers, but there’s no real evidence he’s about to bust through his ceiling.
    By Ed Kilgore
  5. vision 2020
    Team Trump Worried About 2020 OverconfidenceObjectively, Trump has little reason to feel confident, much less overconfident, about reelection.
    By Ed Kilgore
  6. Trump Can Win in 2020. But History Tells Us It Won’t Be Easy.Yes, incumbents usually have an advantage. They usually are more popular than Donald J. Trump though.
    By Ed Kilgore
  7. Exactly How High Could That 2018 Democratic Wave Rise?Yes, Republicans have some institutional advantages in their efforts to hang onto the House. But they only help so much in a wave election.
    By Ed Kilgore
  8. The Democrats Really Can Win the House in 2018There’s a long way to go, but Trump’s approval ratings, the generic ballot, and the 2017 results all point to huge blue gains.
    By Ed Kilgore
  9. GOP Retirements May Determine Whether Democrats Take Back the House in 2018There are many things Democrats need to take back the House next year. One they don’t yet have is abundant GOP retirements.
    By Ed Kilgore
  10. Beware of Pundits Saying America Is Tired of Having a Democrat in White HouseThe idea that there is a “law” that says Clinton will lose for that reason is belied by history.
    By Ed Kilgore