Displaying all articles tagged:
Incumbency
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vision 2024
If Biden Retires in 2024, Kamala Harris Will Be the Democratic NomineeFor all the negative punditry about the veep lately, don’t underestimate all the advantages she’ll have if Biden gives way to her.
By Ed Kilgore
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Democratic Losses in 2022 Won’t Doom Biden’s ReelectionClinton and Obama bounced back after their party’s poor midterm performances, and Biden will have the benefit of incumbency in 2024.
By Ed Kilgore
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past is prologue
Biden May Bounce Back Like Other Presidents HaveHistory shows that presidents usually get reelected unless they are unlucky, or, like Donald Trump, they work hard at alienating voters.
By Ed Kilgore
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vision 2020
In the 2020 Race, Uncertainty Is All Trump Has Going for HimMost of the developments that could produce a Trump comeback and win are beyond the president’s control.
By Ed Kilgore
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Trump’s Plan: Run As Outsider Against ‘Incumbent’ Non-President BidenTrump of all people cannot overcome his incessant claims of presidential greatness and campaign for reelection as some sort of insurgent.
By Ed Kilgore
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vision 2020
Trump Is Now the 2020 UnderdogThe incumbent’s path to reelection is decidedly narrowing.
By Ed Kilgore
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The Scary Proposition That Trump Is Gradually Becoming More PopularYes, Trump is fairly close to his highest job approval numbers, but there’s no real evidence he’s about to bust through his ceiling.
By Ed Kilgore
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Team Trump Worried About 2020 OverconfidenceObjectively, Trump has little reason to feel confident, much less overconfident, about reelection.
By Ed Kilgore
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Trump Can Win in 2020. But History Tells Us It Won’t Be Easy.Yes, incumbents usually have an advantage. They usually are more popular than Donald J. Trump though.
By Ed Kilgore
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Exactly How High Could That 2018 Democratic Wave Rise?Yes, Republicans have some institutional advantages in their efforts to hang onto the House. But they only help so much in a wave election.
By Ed Kilgore
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The Democrats Really Can Win the House in 2018There’s a long way to go, but Trump’s approval ratings, the generic ballot, and the 2017 results all point to huge blue gains.
By Ed Kilgore
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GOP Retirements May Determine Whether Democrats Take Back the House in 2018There are many things Democrats need to take back the House next year. One they don’t yet have is abundant GOP retirements.
By Ed Kilgore
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Beware of Pundits Saying America Is Tired of Having a Democrat in White HouseThe idea that there is a “law” that says Clinton will lose for that reason is belied by history.
By Ed Kilgore
