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Displaying all articles tagged:
Incumbency
vision 2020
Aug. 13, 2020
In the 2020 Race, Uncertainty Is All Trump Has Going for Him
Most of the developments that could produce a Trump comeback and win are beyond the president’s control.
By
Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
July 1, 2020
Trump’s Plan: Run As Outsider Against ‘Incumbent’ Non-President Biden
Trump of all people cannot overcome his incessant claims of presidential greatness and campaign for reelection as some sort of insurgent.
By
Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
June 24, 2020
Trump Is Now the 2020 Underdog
The incumbent’s path to reelection is decidedly narrowing.
By
Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Aug. 7, 2019
The Scary Proposition That Trump Is Gradually Becoming More Popular
Yes, Trump is fairly close to his highest job approval numbers, but there’s no real evidence he’s about to bust through his ceiling.
By
Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
May 8, 2019
Team Trump Worried About 2020 Overconfidence
Objectively, Trump has little reason to feel confident, much less overconfident, about reelection.
By
Ed Kilgore
Apr. 19, 2018
Trump Can Win in 2020. But History Tells Us It Won’t Be Easy.
Yes, incumbents usually have an advantage. They usually are more popular than Donald J. Trump though.
By
Ed Kilgore
Dec. 22, 2017
Exactly How High Could That 2018 Democratic Wave Rise?
Yes, Republicans have some institutional advantages in their efforts to hang onto the House. But they only help so much in a wave election.
By
Ed Kilgore
Nov. 16, 2017
The Democrats Really Can Win the House in 2018
There’s a long way to go, but Trump’s approval ratings, the generic ballot, and the 2017 results all point to huge blue gains.
By
Ed Kilgore
Oct. 6, 2017
GOP Retirements May Determine Whether Democrats Take Back the House in 2018
There are many things Democrats need to take back the House next year. One they don’t yet have is abundant GOP retirements.
By
Ed Kilgore
Oct. 6, 2016
Beware of Pundits Saying America Is Tired of Having a Democrat in White House
The idea that there is a “law” that says Clinton will lose for that reason is belied by history.
By
Ed Kilgore