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Jimmy Carter
past is prologue
Mar. 20, 2023
Did Reagan Team’s Iran-Hostage Sabotage Defeat Jimmy Carter? Reagan-campaign operatives may have prolonged the Iran Hostage Crisis, but that was just one of the damaging political crises Carter faced in 1980.
By Ed Kilgore
conspiracy theories
Mar. 19, 2023
Lawmaker Reveals ‘October Surprise’ Plot to Sabotage Jimmy Carter’s Reelection A Reagan campaign ally allegedly worked to convince Iran not to release their American hostages until after Election Day.
By Chas Danner
Did Putin Accidentally Reboot Biden’s Presidency? In his handling of the Ukraine crisis and how he frames it in his State of the Union address, Biden has a chance for a rebirth in popularity.
By Ed Kilgore
past is prologue
Oct. 16, 2021
Joe Biden Is Not Jimmy Carter, and This Is Not the 1970s The right’s facile comparisons of the two presidents miss the vastly different circumstances facing Biden and distort Carter’s record.
By Ed Kilgore
past is prologue
Sept. 29, 2021
Biden May Bounce Back Like Other Presidents Have History shows that presidents usually get reelected unless they are unlucky, or, like Donald Trump, they work hard at alienating voters.
By Ed Kilgore
When America Had a Moral Panic Over Inflation The economic crisis of the 1970s has valuable lessons for Joe Biden.
By Rick Perlstein
If Democrats Don’t Exploit This Trifecta, Another Could Be Far Away Democrats will probably lose their governing trifecta in 2022, and it won’t get easier in 2024 or 2026. Historically, they don’t come along often.
By Ed Kilgore
afghanistan
Aug. 16, 2021
The Fall of Saigon Didn’t End Gerald Ford’s Presidency Events in Kabul are bringing back memories of 1975. Will Joe Biden get through his crisis as the 38th president did back then?
By Ed Kilgore
Fritz Mondale, Public Servant The old-school liberal and party loyalist redefined the vice-presidency.
By Ed Kilgore
Biden Builds Popularity by Focusing on COVID Relief Plan The COVID-19 stimulus is more popular than Biden himself. That is the key to his stable job-approval rating so far.
By Ed Kilgore
covid-19 vaccines
Mar. 11, 2021
Ex-Presidents Come Together to Promote COVID Vaccination … Except Trump Trump whining as the other former presidents work together on a PSA tells you everything you need to know about his historical uniqueness.
By Ed Kilgore
president’s job approval
Feb. 5, 2021
Record Polarization Underlies Biden’s Otherwise Normal Job Approval Rating Biden’s impossibly popular among Democrats, and improbably unpopular among Republicans. His relative strength among independents could be key.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump’s Job Approval Plunging as He Leaves Office Trump’s support is in free fall, but is high enough among Republicans to keep them from dumping him. Biden enters office with a bit of a honeymoon.
By Ed Kilgore
capitol riot
Jan. 11, 2021
Could the 14th Amendment Ban Trump From Holding Office Again? Even if a Trump political comeback isn’t blocked by impeachment, his incitement to insurrection may make him subject to a ban meant for Confederates.
By Ed Kilgore
presidential job approval
Dec. 4, 2020
Will Joe Biden Get a Public Opinion ‘Honeymoon?’ He’ll probably be more popular at the start of his presidency than Trump was. How much that helps him achieve his agenda is another matter.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Nov. 15, 2020
How Georgia Became the Ultimate Battleground State Georgia Democrats have slowly come back after brief successes under Carter and Clinton. But in the January Senate runoffs, they have their big chance.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Nov. 11, 2020
Biden’s Popular-Vote Win Is Beginning to Look More Impressive Percentage-wise, he did better than any Democrat not named Obama in a half century.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Oct. 15, 2020
Will 2020 Be Jimmy Carter’s Revenge? The Democratic South is rising again, but this time it’s multiracial and progressive.
By Ed Kilgore
Why Being Catholic Isn’t Special in Politics Anymore Joe Biden isn’t appealing to Catholic tradition in his bid to become the second Catholic president. But that’s the American way.
By Ed Kilgore
kennedy dynasty
Sept. 2, 2020
The Fall of the Kennedy Dynasty Took More Than Just One Night Joseph Kennedy III’s loss to Ed Markey was just the latest in a long series of setbacks for the storied political family.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Aug. 20, 2020
The 48-Year Journey of Joe Biden’s Democratic Party At the moment he accepts the nomination, Biden and his party have evolved into a proud force for diversity and progressivism.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
July 22, 2020
Trump’s Train to Reelection Is on the Wrong Track The percentage of Americans who like the direction of the country under Trump is very low, just like it was for past incumbent losers.
By Ed Kilgore
past is prologue
July 16, 2020
Remembering the Reagan-Ford ‘Co-Presidency’ That Could Have Been If you find Biden’s veep selection process boring, look back 40 years to a wild ride at the Republican convention where Reagan eventually picked Bush.
By Ed Kilgore
george floyd
June 3, 2020
Read What Presidents Obama, Bush, Carter, and Clinton Said About George Floyd Every living former president has weighed in on the killing of George Floyd and the subsequent nationwide unrest.
By Chas Danner
Partisan Polarization Reaching Record Levels Trump’s more popular with Republicans than Reagan, less popular with independents than Carter. It’s not just elites who are polarized.
By Ed Kilgore
foreign interests
Dec. 31, 2019
Trump Puts Business Above Democracy and Human Rights. So Did Jimmy Carter. As Iran’s pro-business dictatorship faced an uprising, Carter’s administration urged it “to kill as many demonstrators as necessary,” documents show.
By Eric Levitz
vision 2020
Nov. 20, 2019
Buttigieg’s Electability Argument: Only Young Outsiders Win for Democrats Mayor Pete is comparing himself to past winners Carter, Clinton, and Obama, which is clever but not exactly a slam-dunk argument.
By Ed Kilgore
Pete Buttigieg Wooing Moderates in Hope of a Biden Collapse But the successful Democratic moderates of the past all had solid African-American support, which Mayor Pete famously lacks.
By Ed Kilgore
Jimmy Carter Saw a UFO on This Day in 1973 Carter promised to come clean on UFO intel if elected president, but like all of them, he backtracked.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Aug. 14, 2019
McGovern Didn’t Lose in 1972 by Going Too Far Left. Neither Will 2020 Democrats. The popular narrative of McGovern’s 1972 run is riddled with misconceptions. The risks Democrats run in 2020 have nothing to do with “McGovernism.”
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
July 30, 2019
What Does the History of Black Primary Voting Tell Us About 2020? It’s not totally clear whether Harris or Booker will perform like Barack Obama in 2008 or like Al Sharpton in 2004.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
June 13, 2019
Jimmy Carter Is Emerging As a Role Model in the 2020 Primaries Not only is his name no longer a political slur, Democratic candidates are actively trying to emulate him.
By Gabriel Debenedetti
Is the DNC ‘Winnowing’ Potentially Strong 2020 Presidential Candidates? The party can’t make everyone happy, but yes, there have been some late bloomers who did well despite poor early polls.
By Ed Kilgore
Could Biden’s Opposition to Federal Abortion Funding Bring Him Down? Backing the federal abortion-funding ban used to be bipartisan — but now Biden is embracing a stance that’s increasingly anathema to Democrats.
By Ed Kilgore
Celebrate Racism! It’s Jefferson Davis’s Birthday in Alabama And yet you wonder why this state enacted an aggressively reactionary abortion law?
By Ed Kilgore
donald trump
Apr. 15, 2019
Trump Says He’s ‘Always Liked’ Jimmy Carter Despite Insulting Him for Years After Carter complimented Trump on his handling of the U.S.-China relationship, President 45 walked back years of insults lobbed at President 39.
By Matt Stieb
historical revisionism
Apr. 9, 2019
Yes, Candace, the Southern Strategy Is Real In an egregious statement of historical revisionism, right-wing controversialist Candace Owens denies some very basic facts.
By Ed Kilgore
what’s past is prologue
Mar. 23, 2019
How Jimmy Carter’s Election Previewed Trump’s As Carter becomes the oldest ex-president, it’s useful to remember how strange and unusual his rise to the White House actually was.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Mar. 22, 2019
4 Reasons Democrats Will Have a Front-runner Soon — and 3 They Won’t More than likely someone will eventually stroll to the nomination in 2020. But maybe not so fast and maybe not at all.
By Ed Kilgore
2020 presidential election
Feb. 13, 2019
Looks Like the 2020 Democratic Presidential Field Could Be the Largest Ever In the past, very large presidential fields have produced unusual results, and more often than not, defeat.
By Ed Kilgore
2020 presidential election
Feb. 10, 2019
Joe Biden May Be the Last Hurrah for Moderate Democrats Barring a Biden nomination, the time seems ripe for progressives to take the wheel in the Democratic Party, and for moderates to fall in line.
By Ed Kilgore
2020 elections
Dec. 27, 2018
Could a Huge Field Lead to the Democrats Nominating Their Own Donald Trump? A huge upset by an outsider on the Democratic side is possible but not terribly likely.
By Ed Kilgore
2020 elections
Dec. 17, 2018
Is Cory Booker the Candidate of the Christian Left? Booker’s political gospel could be discomforting to secular progressives and the Christian right as well.
By Ed Kilgore
the national interest
July 11, 2018
Poll: Barack Obama Was the Greatest President of Our Lifetime Why haven’t Democrats exploited the popularity of their recent presidents, and the unpopularity of Republican ones?
By Jonathan Chait
The Powerful Myth of the Would-Be President RFK, 50 Years Later Robert F. Kennedy promised a kind of mind-bending coalition of minorities and white working-class voters that progressives still crave.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump Can Win in 2020. But History Tells Us It Won’t Be Easy. Yes, incumbents usually have an advantage. They usually are more popular than Donald J. Trump though.
By Ed Kilgore
Who Represents MLK’s Legacy Today? Barack Obama was an heir to King’s political legacy, but it’s clear now that he didn’t occupy the Promised Land of equality, either.
By Ed Kilgore
A Democratic Wave in the Midterms Could Expose Trump to a 2020 Primary Challenge Trump stands athwart the GOP like a colossus right now. But like him, his party doesn’t like losers.
By Ed Kilgore
RIP John Anderson, the Last Liberal Republican He began running for president as a Republican in 1980. Four years later, he had left the party.
By Ed Kilgore
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