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Polls

  1. 100-person poll
    100 New Yorkers on the New Rules of Outdoor Drinking On a recent Saturday, we asked 100 people at Brooklyn’s McCarren Park about porta-potties, open container laws, and other 2020 etiquette.
  2. vision 2020
    Why 2020 Is Not Just Another 2016Democrats can be forgiven for a superstitious fear of a Trump comeback. But the real threat may not emerge until the polls close.
  3. democracy
    The Coronavirus Crisis Is Proving That Democracy WorksThe president is bleeding support in counties hit hard by COVID-19, as previously pro-Trump voters rationally respond to evidence of his failures.
  4. vision 2020
    Trump Believes That He Is Losing Because He Hasn’t Been Racist EnoughOn the one hand, all available evidence suggests this is wrong. On the other hand, Tucker Carlson suggests it is right.
  5. vision 2020
    Democrats Are on Pace for a Down-Ballot BlowoutThe party’s lead in the congressional generic ballot is higher now than it was in 2018.
  6. vision 2020
    Trump Is Now the 2020 UnderdogThe incumbent’s path to reelection is decidedly narrowing.
  7. vision 2020
    Why Do Trump Supporters Act Like His Reelection Is Certain?For reasons varying from a Trumpian infatuation with “winning” to thoughts of contesting a loss, many Republicans act as though it’s a done deal.
  8. vision 2020
    Why Biden Needs to Win BigGiven Trump’s Electoral College advantage and the need to win Senate races, Biden must have as big a national popular vote lead as he can get.
  9. vision 2020
    No One Group of Voters Will Determine Trump’s FateWinning or losing a voter group is often less important than the margins, where a vote’s a vote–except in the Electoral College.
  10. vision 2020
    Trump Campaign Puts President’s Psychological Needs Above His Political OnesThe president’s team recently bought ad time in D.C. so Trump could hear positive things about himself on TV.
  11. vision 2020
    2020 Election Polls Look Solid, But Not PerfectPrimary polls were about as accurate as in 2016, though they failed to anticipate the Biden surge. November will be a bigger test for pollsters.
  12. vision 2020
    Trump’s Odds of Winning Reelection Are Higher Than You ThinkWeeks into a historic recession, the president’s approval rating remains higher than it’s been for most of his tenure.
  13. vision 2020
    The State of the Presidential Race, Six Months Before Election DayRecent presidential elections show the eventual winner ahead at this point, except for Trump himself in 2016.
  14. vision 2020
    Why Kavanaugh Is the Focus of Republican Attacks on BidenThe GOP would prefer to compare Biden to Kavanaugh, a party-unifying figure, rather than Trump himself, accused of far more misconduct.
  15. vision 2020
    Trump Blasts ‘Fake Polling’ (Unless It Makes Him Look Good)You have to wonder if the president is attacking adverse polls in preparation for attacking adverse election results.
  16. coronavirus
    Most Americans Want Those Protesting Stay-at-Home Orders to Stay at HomeDemocrats, Republicans, and independents are aligned in their opposition to protesters agitating for a swift reopening of the economy.
  17. vision 2020
    5 Reasons Pundits Will Overestimate Trump’s Odds of Winning in NovemberNobody wants to experience Trump gloating at their expense twice in a row.
  18. vision 2020
    Can Bernie Beat the Polls and Win Michigan Again?Clinton led Sanders by similarly large margins in 2016 polls in Michigan, only to lose. But higher turnout could be good news for Biden.
  19. global politics
    Across the World, Voters Are Losing Faith in GovernmentThe percentage of citizens who believe that “the state is run for the benefit of all” has plummeted in a wide array of countries since 2002.
  20. authoritarianism
    President Trump Has Never Been More Dangerous Than He Is NowIn the aftermath of impeachment, Trump’s poll numbers have been rising in tandem with his assaults on democracy.
  21. vision 2020
    Bernie Sanders Opens Up Double-Digit National LeadBut Michael Bloomberg is surging in Super Tuesday states.
  22. state of the union address
    Live State of the Union Polling: Mixed News for a Divisive PresidentParticipants in live dial-testing seem to show support for some of Trump’s agenda, but it hasn’t translated to support for Trump.
  23. vision 2020
    Bernie Sanders Surges Into Lead in New CNN PollSanders is now tied with Biden among nonwhite voters, the survey suggests.
  24. polls
    By 2-to-1 Margin, Voters Say Trump’s Soleimani Strike Made U.S. ‘Less Safe’In a new survey, a majority of Americans say Trump’s Iran policy is “reckless,” while just 24 percent say it made Americans “more safe.”
  25. polls
    Survey: Most Americans Can’t Find Iran on a MapJust 23 percent of registered voters could pick out Iran on an unlabeled map of the world.
  26. vision 2020
    Sanders Leads in New Hampshire, Part of Three-Way Tie for First in Iowa: PollThe end of the holiday polling drought is great for Bernie, and not so great for Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg.
  27. vision 2020
    Why Nobody Can Prevent the All-White Debate StageThere’s no formula for adding nonwhite candidates to debates that won’t add more white candidates as well, reversing the winnowing of the nonviable.
  28. vision 2020
    January Debate Criteria May Winnow Democratic Field Some MoreThe DNC rejects demands for a relaxation of qualifying criteria and for more podiums on the stage.
  29. trump impeachment
    President Trump Is Getting More PopularA handful of recent polls show his approval rating climbing, despite his impending impeachment.
  30. vision 2020
    New Polls Are Good News for Biden, Bernie, and the Billionaire CandidatesIn five new national polls, Steyer’s and Bloomberg’s wallets are making an impact, while Biden and Sanders continue to show strength.
  31. vision 2020
    Trump’s Approval Rating Impervious to ImpeachmentThe best indicator of Trump’s reelection prospects is holding steady — at just short of what he needs to win.
  32. vision 2020
    Polling Drought Helps Winnow Democratic Debate FieldAfter Thanksgiving, debate-qualifying polls dried up.
  33. vision 2020
    Yang Qualifies, Busts Up All-White Debate StageNew polls show seven candidates set for the Los Angeles debate stage. It’s unlikely anyone else will make it.
  34. vision 2020
    Poll: Democrats Can Reduce Third-Party Voting in 2020 by Getting High on WeedA new survey suggests that a Democrat who supports marijuana legalization would lose far fewer votes to third parties in 2020 than one who doesn’t.
  35. vision 2020
    Bloomberg Poll Bump Shows That Money TalksHis unprecedented ad spending is getting everyone’s attention, but he’s got some high unfavorability numbers, too.
  36. impeachment
    Impeachment Polls Steady, Tracking Trump Job ApprovalIndications that political independents were souring on impeachment were probably premature.
  37. vision 2020
    The Expected Pete Buttigieg Pile-On Never Happened in the Atlanta DebateMayor Pete has been surging in Iowa and New Hampshire polls — but his rivals pretty much left him alone.
  38. vision 2020
    10 Candidates Qualify for the November Democratic DebateJulián Castro failed to make the November cut. Six candidates have made the December debate, and Cory Booker is in the greatest danger of missing out.
  39. vision 2020
    Kamala Harris Facing Home-State HeartburnKamala Harris’s once-plausible path to the Democratic nomination is very rocky now. Maybe she’d be smart to pack it in before losing her home state.
  40. vision 2020
    Is Pete Buttigieg Peaking Too Early in Iowa?Things are looking sunny for Mayor Pete, though there’s time for others to catch up in Iowa, and he still needs to woo more nonwhite voters.
  41. vision 2020
    Three Years Later, Trump Has Lost the Element of SurpriseMemories of the shock of Election Night 2016 could become a strategic asset for Democrats, who sure won’t get over-confident in 2020.
  42. vision 2020
    Leftism Isn’t Very Appealing to Nonvoters. But Bernie Sanders Is.New survey data suggests nonvoting Democrats are less ideologically progressive — but more anti-Establishment — than their co-partisans.
  43. vision 2020
    Good Pollsters Don’t Always AgreeNate Silver’s pollster ratings equally praise two outlets producing what sure look like wildly varying takes on how 2020 is shaping up.
  44. vision 2020
    Can Anyone Catch the Big Four in Iowa?Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren are far ahead of the rest of the field in Iowa, and there likely won’t be more than four tickets out of there.
  45. vision 2020
    December Democratic Debate May Winnow Some More CandidatesThe polling threshold for making the stage will rise again, endangering several well-known candidates.
  46. politics
    How Close Is the U.S. to Civil War? About Two-Thirds of the Way, Americans SayThe country is divided and people think it’s headed to a bad place.
  47. vision 2020
    Buttigieg Showing Strength in IowaMeanwhile, would-be Biden alternatives Harris and Booker are struggling in Iowa, where they have both bet the farm.
  48. vision 2020
    Feinstein Endorsement May Mean Biden Is Feeling DesperateThere’s no need for Feinstein to diss her colleagues — notably Kamala Harris — with this step unless Biden really needs it.
  49. vision 2020
    November Debate: Who’s In, Who’s Out?A heightened polling requirement could ensnare several candidates who made the grade for earlier debates.
  50. vision 2020
    Warren Overtakes Biden for Lead in National PollsFor the first time, the former veep’s not leading in the RealClearPolitics national polling average.
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