Displaying all articles tagged:
Polls
early and often
Sept. 12, 2022
Will the Polls Be Wrong Again in 2022? A lot of Democrats’ current midterms optimism is based on the assumption that today’s polls are more accurate than they were in 2016 or 2020.
By Ed Kilgore
5 Reasons Voters Underrate the Biden Economy By most objective measures, today’s economy isn’t bad. So why do Americans say the president is messing it up?
By Eric Levitz
black voters
Jan. 28, 2022
Why Joe Biden Is Bleeding Black Support The president’s failure to pass voting-rights legislation is only a small part of the story.
By Eric Levitz
Is Trump Losing His Base? New Poll Suggests Otherwise. Talk about Ron DeSantis displacing Trump is very premature and perhaps another sign of the perpetual underestimation of the 45th president.
By Ed Kilgore
Never Mind the Facts. Trump Fans Feel Like a Majority When you’ve been convinced polls are fake and actual elections are rigged, it is easy to confuse visible signs of enthusiasm as a ticket to power.
By Ed Kilgore
supreme court
Dec. 27, 2021
Why Is John Roberts So Popular Among Democrats? The chief justice’s enduring appeal suggests the Supreme Court may be able to gut Roe without great cost to its reputation.
By Eric Levitz
racial justice
Oct. 21, 2021
Smearing Popularism Does Not Help Black Voters Persuasively rebutting David Shor requires scrutinizing his arguments, not stigmatizing them.
By Eric Levitz
Why a Troubled Polling Industry Whiffed on the California Recall Big 2020 polling errors nationwide were followed by big 2021 polling errors in California — but in the opposite direction.
By Ed Kilgore
california recall election
Sept. 9, 2021
A Defeat of the Newsom Recall Will Feed a New Round of MAGA Conspiracy Theories The recall has lost ground, or maybe never had any. But Newsom’s momentum will be treated by Trump and Republicans as signs of a rigged election.
By Ed Kilgore
Yes, Gavin Newsom Could Lose the California Recall to a Republican How voter complacency, GOP enthusiasm, and Democrats’ risky messaging could hand the California governorship to the GOP in September.
By Ed Kilgore
Bad News for Andrew Yang With Two Weeks to Go The erstwhile front-runner is slipping in polls as negative ads begin.
By Nia Prater
Polling the Midterms Is Going to Be Risky Business It’s hard to tell whether 2020 polling errors were about Trump, the pandemic, or something more basic and replicable.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump’s Delegitimization of Democracy Isn’t Wearing Off It remains unclear when — or if — Republicans will begin to accept electoral defeat again.
By Ed Kilgore
Biden’s Steady Popularity Depends on Near-Universal Democratic Support Biden seems to have figured out how to keep his party happy without mobilizing the opposition. But avoiding midterm losses will still be tricky.
By Ed Kilgore
Did Trump Ruin Polling, Too? Pollsters are beginning to wonder if Trump succeeded in discouraging response to polls just as he discouraged voting by mail.
By Ed Kilgore
2020 hindsight
Apr. 8, 2021
Latinas Drove Trump’s Gains With Hispanic Voters in 2020 And two other new insights into the demographic’s rightward shift.
By Eric Levitz
What Did We Learn About Political Polling in 2020? With Trump and the pandemic, clear answers have been hard to come by.
By Ed Kilgore
Is Mike Pence Finished in MAGA-Land? It seems four years of toadying to Trump aren’t enough to overcome his “betrayal” on January 6.
By Ed Kilgore
the republican party
Feb. 10, 2021
Capitol Riot Took Toll on GOP Approval, Registrations Nearly 140,000 Republican voters quit the party in January, while Democrats opened up a double-digit advantage in approval.
By Eric Levitz
Trump’s Job Approval Plunging as He Leaves Office Trump’s support is in free fall, but is high enough among Republicans to keep them from dumping him. Biden enters office with a bit of a honeymoon.
By Ed Kilgore
republican party
Jan. 14, 2021
Post-Capitol Hill Riot Polls Reveal Big Problem for GOP Even as Trump’s overall popularity hits all-time lows, a large portion of the Republican base sees him as their champion.
By Eric Levitz
vision 2020
Nov. 13, 2020
David Shor’s Postmortem of the 2020 Election Democrats must accept that Biden won through persuasion, not mobilization — and if the party can’t change the Senate, it will need to change itself.
By Eric Levitz
poll position
Nov. 10, 2020
Should We Stop Paying Attention to Election Polls? Polls are like democracy: bad except as compared to all the alternatives.
By Ed Kilgore
Trump Team Digs In Against Biden: Post-Election Updates Republicans back president’s call election was stolen, as officials refuse to begin transition process for the president-elect.
By Intelligencer Staff
What to Watch for on Election Night: An Hour-by-Hour Guide Here’s when we’re likely to know if we’re looking at another Trump upset, a Biden landslide, or a fight that goes into a turbulent overtime.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Oct. 22, 2020
New Poll Confirms That High Youth Turnout Would Doom Trump Voters under 35 back Biden in 41 states; in Texas and Georgia, young voters oppose Trump by roughly 20 points.
By Eric Levitz
coronavirus stimulus
Oct. 20, 2020
Why Trump Should Just Cave to Pelosi on Stimulus Deal Trump is losing his advantage over Biden in managing the economy. A last-minute stimulus deal may be the only way to get it back.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Oct. 19, 2020
Trump Is Running Out of Time to Change These 8 Election X-Factors Examining the remaining variables, the president is in serious trouble just two weeks ahead of his date with reelection fate.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Oct. 19, 2020
Men and Women Have Never Been More Politically Divided The gender gap in the 2020 election will be record-breaking — and could persist long after Trump is gone.
By Eric Levitz
vision 2020
Oct. 15, 2020
2020’s Top Election Forecasters Are Fighting on Twitter Nate Silver and G. Elliott Morris are trying to make sense of 2020 — and each other.
By Matthew Zeitlin
3 Reasons Catching Coronavirus Could Be Bad for Trump Politically Shifting media attention away from COVID and toward Biden’s liabilities just got a lot harder.
By Eric Levitz
vision 2020
Sept. 25, 2020
How Biden and Trump Pollsters See the Politics of the Supreme Court Fight In an ugly race, even a slight unifying effect for Trump’s base or a chance to portray a vulnerable senator as a Trump lackey can make a difference.
By David Freedlander
vision 2020
Sept. 22, 2020
Trump’s Closing Message to Seniors: I Don’t Care If You Die “It affects elderly people,” Trump said of COVID. “It affects virtually nobody.”
By Eric Levitz
poll position
Sept. 18, 2020
New, Highly Credible Polls Offer Bad News For Trump Trump is not doing well in states he really needs to win (like Arizona), and his troubles are dragging down Republican Senate candidates.
By Ed Kilgore
vote by mail
Sept. 18, 2020
How Democrats’ Reliance on Mail-In Voting Could Help Trump Even if the Postal Service does a perfect job this November.
By Eric Levitz
vision 2020
Sept. 17, 2020
Polls: Biden Maintains Electoral College Lead, But It’s Fragile Polls show a slightly eroding Biden lead nationally, but he’s in great shape unless the margin falls below 3 percent.
By Ed Kilgore
poll position
Sept. 14, 2020
50 Days Out, Biden Doing Better in Polls Than Clinton, Obama, or Kerry The only candidate to overcome as big a disadvantage as Trump faces now is Obama in 2008, and all hell broke loose that fall.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Sept. 3, 2020
5 Reasons Biden’s Odds of Victory Look Better Than Ever There’s still plenty of time on the clock, but the past 48 hours of news and polling makes Biden’s lead look sturdier than before the RNC.
By Eric Levitz
vision 2020
Sept. 2, 2020
Polls Reveal the Conventions to Be Enormous Wastes of Time and Effort The basic shape of the race hasn’t changed after the conventions, though a poll from Pennsylvania is good news for Trump
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
Aug. 17, 2020
Is Biden’s Lead Shrinking? A favorable CNN poll for Trump is getting a lot of attention, but polling averages and presidential approval ratings tell a different story.
By Ed Kilgore
100-person poll
Aug. 5, 2020
100 New Yorkers on the New Rules of Outdoor Drinking On a recent Saturday, we asked 100 people at Brooklyn’s McCarren Park about porta-potties, open container laws, and other 2020 etiquette.
By Brock Colyar
vision 2020
July 26, 2020
Why 2020 Is Not Just Another 2016 Democrats can be forgiven for a superstitious fear of a Trump comeback. But the real threat may not emerge until the polls close.
By Ed Kilgore
The Coronavirus Crisis Is Proving That Democracy Works The president is bleeding support in counties hit hard by COVID-19, as previously pro-Trump voters rationally respond to evidence of his failures.
By Eric Levitz
Trump Believes That He Is Losing Because He Hasn’t Been Racist Enough On the one hand, all available evidence suggests this is wrong. On the other hand, Tucker Carlson suggests it is right.
By Eric Levitz
vision 2020
June 30, 2020
Democrats Are on Pace for a Down-Ballot Blowout The party’s lead in the congressional generic ballot is higher now than it was in 2018.
By Eric Levitz
vision 2020
June 24, 2020
Trump Is Now the 2020 Underdog The incumbent’s path to reelection is decidedly narrowing.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
June 16, 2020
Why Do Trump Supporters Act Like His Reelection Is Certain? For reasons varying from a Trumpian infatuation with “winning” to thoughts of contesting a loss, many Republicans act as though it’s a done deal.
By Ed Kilgore
vision 2020
June 12, 2020
Why Biden Needs to Win Big Given Trump’s Electoral College advantage and the need to win Senate races, Biden must have as big a national popular vote lead as he can get.
By Ed Kilgore
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